POWER RANKINGS: York United continues to soar as Cavalry, Forge quietly surge
Blink, and you’ll miss something.
That’s been the nature of the Canadian Premier League title race over the past few weeks, as the summer continues to yield some fascinating drama in terms of movement in the table.
With that, two distinct races have now formed in the table, which has split into two groups.
At the top, there are the four teams currently battling for first place, which are York United, Atlético Ottawa, Forge and Cavalry. All split by four points, they’ve emerged as the favourites to lift the CPL Shield, earning the Concacaf Champions Cup spot that goes with it, while also giving them a chance of finishing in the top two to give them a chance at hosting the playoff final.
Then, further down the table, there are the four teams who are battling for the fifth and final playoff spot, which are Vancouver, Pacific, Valour and Halifax, who are all split by seven points, which is deceptively large given that Halifax has some games in hand on those in front of them, making that gap smaller than it seems.
Plus, it’s not as if any of the bottom teams are out of the title race, either - just look at Vancouver, who could crawl within two points of Forge if the Hammers lose to Halifax in midweek and then Vancouver beats them in their clash next week.
Yet, once again, that remains the big factor in the race going forward - head-to-head clashes, which have left a massive impact on the table. For example, Ottawa’s slump as of late wouldn’t have felt as bad if their three straight losses hadn’t come against the teams who are gunning for first in York, Forge and Cavalry, which dragged them down further than it would’ve if they lost to a couple of teams out of the playoff race.
Ultimately, winning those head-to-head matches is crucial, so keep an eye out for some of the big six-point matches that will be played over the next few weeks, of which there will be many.
On that note, here’s a look at the latest CPL Power Rankings, presented by tonybet.
>There are new league leaders in the CPL, and they also lead these Power Rankings, as York United have continued to be the team to beat in the CPL this summer. Their record speaks for themselves in that regard, too - now, in the 10 games they’ve played since the arrival of Benjamín Mora, they’ve got a record of 7W-2D-1L (23 PTS), allowing them to finally climb into first after their win over Valour this past weekend. Not only that, but they’ve outscored opponents 17 to 9, doing well to get the job done at both ends, as they’ve been formidable defensively and flying high offensively, led by Brian Wright’s nine goals, six assists and 15 goal contributions (which all lead the CPL). Because of that, it’s hard to tell when they might slow down. At the same time, there are two factors to watch. First, it’s to see if the offence can keep up, as the underlying numbers suggest that York has overperformed their xG by nearly eight goals this season. They’ve got the talented finishers to be better than their xG, but it’s rare to see a team overperform it by that much, so keep an eye on their attack. Then, the other thing to watch will be if they get tired, as they’ve relied heavily on some key names to drive them forward under Mora. They’ve got the depth to rotate, but they’ve relied on a key group of players - it’ll be interesting to see how long they can maintain that.
GOAL 👑@YorkUtdFC find the breakthrough vs. @ValourFootball as Mo Babouli and Brian Wright combine on the counter-attack before Austin Ricci finishes the effort 😎
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 12, 2024
🔴 Watch the @tonybet_Canada #CanPL MOTW on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/OWJnHTp0j8
>Finally, Cavalry have put the run of draws behind them - they’ve now started to turn them into wins, as they’ve won three straight games to vault up the rankings. Yet, there are a few factors to look at as key to this stretch, as they’re finally getting the goals they struggled to get earlier in the year, doing so thanks to the return of some key players. Namely, those are Ali Musse, Sergio Camargo and Maël Henry, with Musse’s return being the big one to watch, given his status as the CPL’s 2023 Player’s Player of the Year. He’s shown exactly what his team missed, too, scoring two goals and adding an assist since his return, and one has to imagine he’ll only get better as he gets up to speed. For a team that has had finishers but has struggled to create chances, his return has made a massive difference for that reason. Combine that with their defensive play, which has remained elite, and that’s allowed them to catch fire. Because of that, keep an eye on Cavalry going forward. As a result of all their draws, they’ve lost just three CPL games this year - they’ve been a tough team to beat on their day, and that can give them a key edge in six-point games, as Ottawa recently learned.
GOAL 🐎🐎🐎@CPLCavalryFC go up 3-1 over @HFXWanderersFC as Daan Klomp once again gets into the box and scores 😎
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 10, 2024
🔴 Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/17orubyQzw
>It’s almost a tradition at this point - once the CPL hits the second half of their schedule, Forge quietly starts to heat up. As a result, they’ve now climbed to within three points of first place in the CPL, and they have a game in hand, doing well to put themselves back in the title race after a May slump. For what it’s worth, however, they’ve been helped massively by their dominant form at home, as they’ve got a record of 7W-1D-1L (22 PTS) in nine games at Tim Hortons Field, but have a record of 1W-3D-4L (6 PTS) on the road. With six of their last 11 games on the road, that’ll be the big thing to watch. Other than that, though, Forge will have lots to be pleased about, as they’ve had excellent underlying numbers, are scoring goals, are defending well, and have yet to be able to use their full lineup this season. Because of that, they remain a strong candidate to watch in this title race.
GOAL⚒️⚒️⚒️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 11, 2024
Welcome back to the CPL, Elimane Cissé!
Cissé chips home his 1st CPL goal since 2021 to give @ForgeFCHamilton a 3-0 lead over Ottawa late
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/m0kwtEhd1S
>After a tough start to the year, one compounded by a heavy slate of road games, Valour has found some form as of late, allowing them to push within touching distance of a playoff spot after winning two and drawing one in a crucial stretch of three games. Unfortunately, they lost some ground in that race this past weekend, as they fell 1-0 to York in an entertaining game where both teams had chances to win, but they remain in a good spot, with seven of their last 10 games at home. At the same time, that’s the big story to watch - can they improve their home record? With a record of 3W-0D-4L (9 PTS) at home, they’ve been okay, but they’ll need to be dominant to make the playoffs, especially given some of the head-to-head matchups that await them over the last stretch. As Valour has shown, they’ll be competitive in games, as they can defend well and have the pieces to be dangerous in the attack, but now it’ll be about capitalizing on this stretch of home games as they look to make the playoffs for the first time.
>It’s been a weird stretch lately for the Halifax Wanderers, who remain last in the CPL table but have continued to make up some key ground after a slow start. At the same time, they’ve also had a strange run over the last seven games, winning four and losing three, and they’ve alternated wins and losses over the last six. Yet, that remains their next battle - they want more consistency, as they’ve been a tough team to beat on their day, but are still looking to find that on a week-to-week basis. Now, however, there’s no better time to find that than the present - with two games in hand on a lot of teams in front of them, they remain firmly in the race, but will need to string together a run of wins, especially when it comes to those games in hand. That starts this week, as they face Forge in a rescheduled clash, so keep an eye on that one, as a win there would be massive for the Wanderers’ playoff push, narrowing the gap between them and fifth-place Vancouver to just four points.
GOAL ⚓️⚓️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 10, 2024
And just like in the first half, @HFXWanderersFC find a quick goal to respond to @CPLCavalryFC and it's now just a 3-2 lead for the home team, as Dan Nimick converts from the penalty spot
🔴 Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/iOrosIFlih
>For the first time in months, Atlético Ottawa are no longer on top of the CPL table, as they were passed by York United this past weekend. Yet, this has been coming for Ottawa, who have lost three straight and have just one win in their past six CPL games. Because of that, they’ve gone from looking like a side that might run away with the CPL Shield to one that will be in a battle just to host a playoff game by the end of the year if they keep this up. At the same time, it’s not as if they’re in a terrible position - they’re still two points off of first place in second, and they know what they need to fix to get out of this slump. Namely, they’ll need to be much better defensively, as they’ve conceded 16 goals in their past seven games after conceding just eight goals in their first 11, which has made it hard for them to win. They’ve got the attacking talent to win games, but they need to be a lot more solid at the back, so look for them to clean that up going forward.
>Other than their ability to beat Pacific, there hasn’t been a lot that Vancouver will look back fondly on as of late, as they’ve now won just three of their last 12 games - all three of them being wins over their Salish Sea Derby rivals. While that’s been great for their bragging rights in that derby, in which they’ve now won five straight games, it’s not helped them in their race for the playoffs, where they’re just holding on to the fifth and final spot thanks to their most recent win over Pacific. At the same time, that latest win gave them plenty to build off, as it was a big home win after a stretch of tough results at Willoughby Community Park, and they grabbed a pivotal clean sheet, just their third of the year. Now, they’ll look to build on that going forward, showing that they can beat teams not named Pacific, allowing them to make a late push up the table.
GOAL 🦅
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 11, 2024
Wero Diaz opens the scoring for @VanFootballClub vs local rivals @PacificFCCPL just after the hour mark 😎
🔴 Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/cNBqV0qdhf
>Will Pacific’s attack come alive in 2024? Sitting with just 14 goals in 17 games, that remains the big question surrounding them as they get set to tackle their last 11 games. As has been the case all year long, their defence has been giving them a chance in games, but they’re not scoring enough to take advantage of it, which is why they’ve won only two of their last 13 games. Now out of a playoff spot, their season hangs in the balance, so it’ll be fascinating to see their response over the next few weeks. Especially after their most recent loss to Vancouver in the Salish Sea Derby, where their frustrations were quite visible after the game, Pacific will know that time is running out for them to secure their fifth straight playoff qualification, especially given that most of the teams around them in the table have started to heat up as of late.
