Looking at why Cavalry, Forge, Atlético Ottawa and FC Supra will and won’t win the 2026 North Star Cup
With the 28-game Canadian Premier League regular season campaign now finished, the focus has shifted toward the playoffs, which kick off this weekend.
Save the dates😏 À vos agendas #CPLSoccer | #PLCSoccer https://t.co/0C2JmYvz8q
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) October 26, 2026
Now that Cavalry has lifted the CPL Shield as regular season champions, and the four-team playoff field is complete, it’ll be fascinating to see who emerges as this season’s North Star Cup winner.
Will Cavalry become the first CPL team to complete the regular season and playoff double, earning their second playoff crown in the process? Will Forge win their fifth playoff title in the league’s eight years of existence? Will Atlético Ottawa repeat as playoff champions after their impressive 2025 triumph? Or will FC Supra du Québec become the most unlikely of champions in just their first year of existence?
No matter which of those four teams ends up lifting the North Star Cup on November 21st, there are plenty of intriguing storylines to follow.
We're set for a HISTORIC #CPLsoccer post-season, because... 1️⃣ Cavalry could win 1st CPL Shield & North Star Cup double 🛡️ 🏆 2️⃣ Forge could win 1st CPL & #CanChamp cup double 🇨🇦 3️⃣ Atlético Ottawa could be back-to-back champions 😎 4️⃣ FC Supra could be 1st expansion side to become champs ✨
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 28, 2026
One thing is certain, however - these playoffs should deliver on the drama. With a change back to more of a traditional 1v4 and 2v3 playoff format with two semi-finals and a final, each of the four teams involved knows that they have a straightforward path towards silverware, making it more of an open race than it’s been in past years.
Especially with the semi-finals being two legs, all four teams will enter this playoff feeling like they have a fresh slate from the regular season, which is not a bad thing from a neutral perspective.
Every appearance in the #CPLSoccer postseason 🏆 ⭐️ @ForgeFCHamilton and @CPLCavalryFC with a 100% participation record ⚜️ @fcsupraquebec into the playoffs in their first-ever year Who's taking the North Star Cup home? 👀 https://t.co/JV7OcPnW1l
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 26, 2026
With that in mind, here’s one reason why each of the four CPL playoff teams could dream of lifting the North Star Cup at the end of November - and one reason why they might struggle to do so.
Cavalry FC:
They can win the North Star Cup because…
They’re the most balanced team in the CPL
It wasn’t as comfortable a CPL Shield victory as they would have hoped for, but in the end, there was no doubting Cavalry’s credentials as regular season champions.
Not only did they accumulate an impressive 60 points, which is the second-highest single-season total in league history (Cavalry also holds that mark, having accumulated 62 points in the league’s debut 2019 season), but they did so while playing a great brand of soccer, too.
As one would expect of the regular season champions, they were incredibly solid defensively, conceding just 23 goals in 28 games, but, more impressively, they were a juggernaut offensively, too, scoring a whopping 58 goals in 28 games - finishing with nine more goals than the second most prolific offensive team, which was Forge.
For context, that total of 58 goals actually also set a single-season CPL record, beating Atlético Ottawa’s total of 54 goals that they scored in the 2025 season, showing how good Cavalry’s attack truly was.
That’s remarkable, because it certainly feels like Cavalry hasn’t earned the same praise for being as dangerous offensively as that Ottawa team did - instead, Cavalry’s offensive chops have almost flown under the radar.
Yet, that’s a credit to how efficient of a side they were, at both ends of the pitch. Cavalry’s underlying numbers were fantastic, as they led the league in xG for with 55.42 and xG against with 23.51, as they consistently did a great job of generating dangerous chances for themselves while suppressing dangerous chances for their opponents.
Thanks to that, they were able to perform almost exactly as expected, and that allowed them to pick up some well-deserved silverware. Heading into the playoffs, that’s good news, as teams who have strong underlying numbers tend to do well in these sort of volatile games.
One other thing to watch out for, too? Cavalry’s squad depth, as another reason for their success is the players they have all over the pitch, from Nathan Ingham in goal, Daan Klomp and Amer Didić at the back, Harry Paton and Sergio Camargo in the midfield, Ali Musse and Goteh Ntginee on the wing, and Tobias Warschewski up front.
Those are among the best players in the league at every position, and that list still leaves out some impact contributors such as Eryk Kobza, Adam Pearlman and Nathaniel Edwards.
Led by this year’s likely MVP in Warschewski, Cavalry has the talent to decide games at both ends of the pitch, which shows why they were able to put up the sort of offensive and defensive numbers that they did all season long. Heading into the playoffs, where games are typically decided by difference-makers, that bodes well for Cavalry’s chances of lifting some more silverware.
They won’t win the North Star Cup because…
They peaked too early
One challenge that teams who dominate in the regular season face when it comes to the postseason? Finding a way to hit their top gear, especially when they’ve already peaked weeks or even months earlier.
Certainly, that’s a worry for Cavalry, who lost two and drew one of their last five matches of the season, after having won eight and drawn two of their previous 10 matches before that.
Due to that late run, they nearly squandered the CPL Shield to Forge, who mounted a late push for the regular season crown, with Cavalry only saving their Shield aspirations with back-to-back victories against Pacific and Vancouver in their last two games of the season.
Plus, even despite those victories, Cavalry didn’t play their best in either game, as they battled for a chaotic 4-2 win against Pacific, before grabbing a narrow 1-0 win against Vancouver - far from the comfortable results they were achieving on that 10-game run, in which they scored 25 goals and conceded just six.
By comparison, they’ve scored 10 and conceded 10 goals in those most recent five games, which is well off the standard Cavalry has set for themselves this season, especially defensively. Given that they were on pace to smash the CPL’s all-time single-season goals conceded record before that stretch shows that.
Because of that, it’ll be fascinating to see whether Cavalry can replicate the form they had throughout the end of summer and the start of fall, or whether this recent run is a sign that they’ve lost a bit of momentum at a bad time.
With how important form and momentum can be in the playoffs, they’ll want to answer that question quickly, especially as they get set for a matchup against the most in-form team in the league right now in FC Supra du Québec.
Forge FC:
They can win the North Star Cup because…
They’ve got knockout experience… as they’ve recently proved
The big storyline for Forge heading into the playoffs? They recently made history by becoming the first CPL team to win the Canadian Championship, defeating CF Montréal in the final to lift the Voyageurs Cup just last week.
After targeting that trophy for years, they were finally able to get the job done, adding it to a trophy cabinet that includes four CPL playoff crowns and three regular season titles.
Therefore, while they’re disappointed they weren’t able to keep their dreams of an unlikely treble alive days later, as they missed out on the CPL Shield by just two points, they head into the playoffs feeling confident about their ability to navigate knockout games.
Already the CPL’s best knockout team, given that they’ve won four playoff titles (no one else has won more than one), made several deep runs in the Canadian Championship before this year’s win, and had even had runs in the Concacaf League when that tournament existed, it’s always been hard to bet against them heading into these sorts of big games - and this year is no exception.
Even though they’ve come up short in the playoffs in the last two seasons, falling in the 2024 final to Cavalry, before falling in the consolation semi-final to that same Cavalry side last year, many wouldn’t be surprised to see Forge return to their seventh final in eight seasons, as they turn their attention towards lifting their fifth North Star Cup.
Certainly, that Canadian Championship victory served as a key reminder of Forge’s big-game ability and winning pedigree, and they’ll hope to be able to lean on it as they look to complete a remarkable double.
To that last point, don’t discount how important that quest could be to Forge, as no CPL team has completed a single-season double, remarkably. With most expecting the first double to be a regular-season and playoff double, as Cavalry is gunning for this year, how impressive would it be if Forge completed a Canadian Championship and playoff double? Achieving that ahead of their rivals, Cavalry, would be a big internal achievement, one that might push Forge to another level in the playoffs.
They won’t win the North Star Cup because…
They don’t know who will score their goals
Despite their success in the Canadian Championship and in CPL play this year, Forge have achieved that without relying on a key difference-maker in the attack.
That’s reflected in the statistics, as Forge’s top scorer across all competitions is Antoine Batisse, who has seven goals. A reminder that Batisse has mostly played as a centre back and as a midfielder this season.
To be fair, he’s tied on seven goals with striker Brian Wright, but with Wright not in great form heading into the playoffs, it’s not as if they can rely much on him either.
Lucas Cavallini was supposed to be a difference-maker up front, and had mostly lived up to the bill since his arrival, but there are doubts about his availability for these playoffs after suffering a hamstring injury in the Canadian Championship final, so that doesn’t help Forge’s cause, either.
Because of that, it’ll be fascinating to see who can find the net for Forge in these games.
Last season, a big reason for their earlier-than-expected playoff exit was that they scored just once across two playoff games, as they just lacked the sort of difference-maker that other teams had in the attack. At a time when all of those attackers stepped up in a big way, it stood out that Forge weren’t able to lean on a player in similar fashion.
Once again, the other teams in the playoffs have players who they can lean on offensively, with Tobias Warschewski leading the line for Cavalry, Ballou Tabla and Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau shining for Ottawa and the duo of Golden Boot winner Loïc Kwemi and Ibrahim Condé in great form for FC Supra du Québec - it remains to be seen whether strikers Wright, Cavallini and Ismael Oketokoun (who led the team in regular season goals with five) can provide that sort of impact, especially if Cavallini isn’t available or not quite fully healthy.
Atlético Ottawa:
They can win the North Star Cup because…
They’re the defending champions
Don’t forget it.
While a lot of talk heading into these playoffs will be about Cavalry and Forge’s status as favourites (with most expecting both of them to meet in what would be their fourth final meeting), and FC Supra du Québec’s remarkable journey to the playoffs, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Atlético Ottawa enter these playoffs as the defending North Star Cup champions.
This might not be the same team that lifted that trophy at a snowy TD Place last fall, with key players such as Sam Salter, David Rodríguez and Nathan Ingham no longer with the club, as well as head coach Diego Mejía, but some key pieces do remain, such as Ballou Tabla and Manny Aparicio, while new arrivals such as Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau have been a big boost to the squad.
Plus, while Ottawa isn’t the same offensive juggernaut they were last year (with the departures of Salter and Rodríguez a big reason for that), new head coach Gustavo Leal has done a good job of coming in and still keeping a strong offensive philosophy while tweaking the way this team operates off the ball.
Because of that, it’s important not to write off Ottawa heading into the postseason. With their pedigree, they’ll have a chance in every game that they play, as they recently showed in a 3-2 win over Cavalry, one that nearly cost Cavalry the Shield, showing that they won’t be scared of the two teams that finished ahead of them in the table.
Therefore, don’t be surprised to see Ottawa come out swinging in this matchup against Forge, who they famously beat in Hamilton last season en route to that North Star Cup triumph, setting the tone for what they were going to accomplish a few weeks later in that famous snowy final against Cavalry.
They won’t win the North Star Cup because…
They keep conceding too many goals
As many will say, a big key to winning titles? Being solid defensively.
Ottawa knows that, too. For as good as they were offensively in 2025, breaking goalscoring records en route to that North Star Cup triumph, they conceded just 28 goals in 28 games in the regular season, and conceded just twice in two playoff games.
This season, though, they’ve struggled a lot more defensively, conceding a whopping 45 goals.
A big reason for that has been the departure of Ingham, no doubt, but this team has been a lot leakier, conceding the second-most xG in the league with 52.85 - showing that they’ve actually been lucky not to concede more goals.
By comparison, they conceded 38.34 xG last year, which is much improved (and also shows how important Ingham was given that they overperformed that number by 10 goals).
Ottawa has the firepower to go toe-to-toe with any team in the league, as they scored a solid 42 goals in 28 games, but it’s worth noting that’s actually the lowest total among the four playoff teams, which will further put pressure on their defence to step up in a way they haven’t been able to all season - a tall task heading into these high-pressure playoff games.
FC Supra du Québec:
They can win the North Star Cup because…
They’re in incredible form at the right time
As many have said, the key with the playoffs is to peak at the right time, and it can be argued that among the four CPL teams who have qualified for the postseason, Supra is the one that enters in the best form.
Across their last five games, they picked up an impressive 13 points, which leads the league - by comparison, Forge picked up 11 points, Cavalry seven points and Ottawa nine points.
A big reason for that? The arrival of former Forge assistant coach Kyt Selaidopoulos, who has had an immediate impact since taking over for the departed Nick Razzaghi as Supra bench boss.
The numbers speak for themselves, as Supra have scored 16 goals and conceded just six goals across those five games since Selaidopoulos has taken over - and three of those goals came in a 4-3 thriller win over the Halifax Wanderers on the final season, one where Supra had to win to book a playoff spot.
In particular, the defensive numbers are important to note because Supra has conceded 50 goals this season, which is the worst among playoff teams. Scoring has not been a problem for them all year long, as evidenced by the fact that they employ the league’s Golden Boot winner in Loïc Kwemi, who scored an astonishing 15 CPL goals, which contributed to Supra’s overall goal total of 47.
Where they struggled was with their defending, especially later in games, which is where Selaidopoulos’s experience has been a big boost.
Supra’s potential has been on full display all season long, as they’ve been extremely competitive from the first whistle, winning their first-ever match as a club, and they’ve further shown that with achievements such as their run to the semi-finals of the Canadian Championship.
This isn’t your typical first-year team, and they’ve once again proved that with the way they were able to battle for that fourth playoff spot, which had long seemed likely to go to Vancouver.
So heading into these playoffs, Supra will think: why not us?
They’re the most in-form team, they have the league’s top scorer, and they’ve got as deep a squad as any in the league (despite sticking to the strict restriction that every player must come from Québec, showing the depth of talent in the province), so they’ve got a lot going for them, that’s for sure. Sometimes, those factors can go a long way when it comes to games like this.
They won’t win the North Star Cup because…
They’re not ready for this stage quite yet
At the same time, it must be stressed that the playoffs are a different beast. Just by reaching this stage, Supra have overachieved massively, especially when comparing how the other CPL expansion teams in Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver fared in their first seasons.
Faced off against a Cavalry side that has beaten them three times and drawn once in their four meetings, it’s going to take something remarkable for Supra to get past them and into the final, and they’ll know that.
Plus, for all of the success that Supra have had under Selaidopoulos, their five matches came against the four teams who missed the playoffs, including two matchups against Toronto. They’re yet to play against Cavalry, Forge or Ottawa, who have clearly established themselves as the top three teams in the CPL this season, with Cavalry and Forge a slight cut above Ottawa.
While Supra has the talent to compete with those top teams, they just don’t have the sort of experience that they have, with those three teams winning the last four North Star Cups (Forge twice, Cavalry once and Ottawa once), and constantly competing for the CPL Shield in recent years (with Forge winning three times, Cavalry twice and Ottawa once across the last six seasons).
To be fair, Supra does have some championship pedigree on their roster, with past North Star Cup winners in David Choinière and Aboubacar Sissoko, as well as Selaidopoulos, but that pales in comparison to what the other sides have at their disposal.
Often, it’s said the playoffs are a battle of wits and experience, and Supra just doesn’t have that under their belt quite yet.
What that shows, though, is why this experience will be extremely formative for Supra, who could use it to vault towards bigger and better things in the future, even if their eyes will be on beating the odds and somehow lifting a North Star Cup in a few weeks. For a team that seems far from hitting their potential, this definitely can be a springboard for them, no matter what happens against Cavalry.
