3 key tactical questions the CanWNT MUST answer at 2023 World Cup
In soccer, evolution is key.
Especially important is always being ahead of the curve tactically – if not, you’ll get caught up very quickly.
That’s the challenge that the Canadian women's national team now faces heading into the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup. Two years removed from their historic gold medal triumph at the 2021 Olympics, they’ve now got a target on their backs heading into this tournament, as teams got a glimpse of what this Canadian team can do when at their full potential two years ago.
Because of that, it’ll be crucial for them to evolve from what worked for them in Tokyo, where their strong defensive play was a big reason for their success. Certainly, that doesn’t mean they’ve got to completely move away from that identity - in fact, the opposite, but they’ll need to find a way to adapt their playstyle as teams start to pick out any weaknesses in how they play.
If not, they’ll get found out quickly, as the rising skill and tactical level of the game globally will expose those who are unwilling to adapt or evolve. Yet, that’s why maintaining success is often seen as harder than finding it in the first place in this sport, as that evolution process is a lot easier said than done.
In that vein, however, here’s a look at three tactical questions that Canada will look to answer heading into this tournament, as they continue to work through that own evolution process, of which the process remains ongoing.
Where will the chances come from?
It feels like for the past half-decade, the big story with this Canadian team has remained the same - where will the goals come from?
A question that has been partly tied in with the aging of Christine Sinclair, whose once prolific goalscoring has understandably slowed down as her role has changed as she’s reached 40, a lack of natural replacement for her has only accelerated those concerns.
And given Canada’s performance at their last two major tournaments, those concerns remain valid - despite winning gold at the Olympics, and exiting in the quarter-finals of the 2019 World Cup, Canada have only scored 10 goals in their last 10 major tournament games, only seven of which have been from open play.
Yet, for the most part, a big reason for that underperformance actually hasn’t been chance generation - at the 2019 World Cup, Canada underperformed their xG by nearly three goals, while at the 2021 Olympics they underperformed it by almost two goals.
Now, however, that chance generation is slowly starting to dry up.
Just look at this year, for example. There, Canada has played four friendlies, going up against the #1-ranked US, #5 France, #8 Brazil and #11 Japan, giving them four stiff tests ahead of the World Cup.
Across those games, they won one and lost three, scoring just three goals while only generating 2.56 xG, with their best xG output being a 1.06 effort against Brazil.
GOAL 🇨🇦🇨🇦#CanWNT go up 2-0 vs. Brazil as Evelyne Viens connects with a vicious volley 🎯
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) February 20, 2023
🔴 https://t.co/7JFAUhgRAE pic.twitter.com/l0EOJ174kA
Yet, this problem dates back to last year - in 2022, they played eight matches against top 15 opposition, and only generated more than one xG four times.
That means that in Canada’s last 12 matches against top 15 opposition, they’ve only cleared 1 xG five times, and have only cleared 1.5 xG in two of those games.
Because of that, it’s clear that the problem has moved from Canada being able to finish, to their ability to even generate chances.
Plus, adding to those concerns is that Canada is missing Janine Beckie for this tournament due to injury, which is a big blow, as she averaged 0.46 Expected Assists and 3.51 key passes per 90 minutes for Canada in 2022.
Therefore, it’ll be interesting to see what Canada does to try and generate more chances, especially with no Beckie.
The good news? There are some options who could step up.
In midfield, Julia Grosso is a big one, as she just had a seven-assist season with Juventus, in which she averaged 1.21 key passes and 0.17 xA per 90 minutes from midfield, playing a big role as an orchestrator in their attack. Meanwhile, Jessie Fleming had 0.91 key passes and 0.14 xA per 90 minutes for Chelsea, although she had just one assist despite being heavily involved in possession for Chelsea.
Then, out wide, Cloé Lacasse had 2.49 key passes and 0.44 xA per 90 minutes to go along with 14 assists in the Portuguese league, and had 1.34 key passes and 0.17 xA per 90 minutes to go along with one assist in the Champions League, highlighting a dominant campaign.
Lastly, at full back, there’s Ashley Lawrence, who had 0.78 key passes and 0.09 per 90 minutes to go along with an assist for PSG in all competitions, doing well to make things happen when she got forward. Then, while Jayde Riviere didn’t play much last year at the club level due to injuries, she’s got three career assists for Canada, and has averaged 0.41 key passes and 0.1 xA per 90 minutes for her country.
Therefore, through that, Bev Priestman could borrow a page out of Moneyball’s book and replace Beckie in the aggregate, potentially.
That would mean adjusting some roles, as Lawrence and Riviere would have to push up the field higher in possession (potentially as wing backs), while Grosso would have to shift from playing underneath Fleming in a double-pivot to alongside her, and Lacasse would have to start, but it could be all worth trying to help replace Beckie.
It’d be a big ask given how Canada’s been committed to playing a 4-3-3 with that double pivot, but given the struggles they’ve had at chance generation, it’d be worth a shot.
Especially given that they’ve actually got some lethal finishers in Lacasse (35 goals in all competitions last season), Jordyn Huitema (six goals in 1200 minutes so far this year) and Evelyne Viens (12 goals in 17 league games so far in 2023), getting them chances could potentially solve those goalscoring woes.
GOAL 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 6, 2022
Jordyn Huitema makes it 6-0 for the #CanWNT! #CWC | 🔴 https://t.co/7JFAUhgjL6 pic.twitter.com/96vtKEiWCj
No doubt, however, that Canada needs to tweak something, because they’ll need to find a way to improve their offence if they’re to have any chance at going far in this tournament.
Given how solid their defence is expected to be, they’ll have a chance in every game, but that’ll mean that goals will be the difference between a group stage exit or a deep run, meaning that it’s imperative that they find a solution to generate chances for the likes of Lacasse, Huitema, Viens and Adriana Leon to get on the end of.
What to do in midfield?
Speaking of Grosso and Fleming, however, their deployment remains a big question heading into this tournament for Canada.
In particular, Grosso’s role is one that is going to be interesting to monitor, as this will be her first major tournament as a full-time starter (she didn’t play a minute at the 2019 World Cup as an 18-year-old, and played 275 out of 600 minutes at the Olympics), which will be fascinating given the season she’s just had for Juventus.
After having signalled her full-time arrival last year for Canada, led by a breakout three-goal and one-assist showing at the Concacaf Championships (in which she won the tournament’s Golden Boot), there’s no doubt that she’s a key part of this team now.
GOAL 🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 9, 2022
Julia Grosso with her third of the tournament! 🙌#CanWNT go up 1-0 over Panama in the 2nd half of tonight's Concacaf W Championship match. #CWC | 🔴 https://t.co/7JFAUhgjL6 pic.twitter.com/iGaNmUwvVb
Yet, despite that, it’s been a struggle since that tournament for Priestman to find the best way to deploy both her and Fleming together. She’s tried them in a double-pivot together, to mixed results, and has alternated both of them playing with a different partner in the double-pivot, which didn’t work out either.
Because of that, it’ll be interesting to see if Priestman considers tweaking their deployment. Especially with Canada’s aforementioned offensive struggles, getting Grosso and Fleming higher up the pitch could be a huge boost for Canada, given that the pair have proven to be quite dangerous in the final third for both club and country.
Yet, there’s also one thing to mention when discussing the midfield, which has hurt Canada since last year’s Concacaf Championships - their injury problems at the #6 position.
There, they’ve got two main options - Desiree Scott and Quinn. Usually, Scott’s been the main option for Canada, filling in as their midfield “destroyer” as she’s aptly nicknamed, but Quinn has also played there, and can fill in nicely at the position for Canada given that they play that role on a good OL Reign team.
Since the Concacaf Championships, though, the pair have battled injuries and other absences, as Scott’s only played 215 minutes for Canada across four appearances(out of a possible 10), all in 2022, while Quinn has played 230 minutes across five appearances.
That problem hasn’t gotten much better - Scott has been ruled out of this tournament due to a knee injury, but with Quinn back and healthy, they could be crucial to unlocking Grosso and Fleming.
Just take a look at their performances last year, where they played 1763 minutes as the Reign won the NWSL’s Supporters Shield. There, Quinn averaged 83.6% passing, won 72.1% of their defensive duels, 53.6% of their aerial duels, and had 3.93 interceptions, 11.28 recoveries and around 1 tackle per 90 minutes.
For reference, Scott averaged 83% passing, won 62.1% of her defensive duels and 44.7% of her aerial duels, and averaged 4.86 interceptions 10.22 recoveries and around 1 tackle, showing that Quinn’s numbers are quite similar.
Therefore, look for Quinn to step up big with no Scott, bringing some stability on both sides of the ball, which has been lacking as the pair has missed games as of late.
Plus, given their familiarity with playing the lone #6, that could then allow Grosso and Fleming to play further forward, which would be a huge boost for Canada’s midfield on many fronts.
Can Canada become more press-resistant?
Lastly, there’s one big tactical question for Canada heading into this tournament - can they beat the high press?
It’s something that first really came up against the U.S. last summer at the Concacaf Championships, but has since really become an issue in several of the games they’ve played since.
Namely, the big problem is in Canada’s build-up pattern, as they usually try to play out of the back in a 4-2-3-1 of sorts.
What teams have realized is that if they press that Canadian shape in a 4-4-2 that can push into a 4-2-4 (as seen below), they can completely isolate all of Canada’s back six 1v1 without having to stretch their off-ball shape too much, making it easy to take away options from Canada, forcing them to either go long or turn it over in possession.
Yet, that’s why teams across the world typically build out of the back in three-at-the-back formations, or variations of that, making sure to create a numerical superiority at the back, as well as opening the possibilities for more triangles in their build-up play.
Because of that, it’ll be interesting to see how Canada adapts. It doesn’t have to be a big tweak - they can still play their 4-3-3 with a defensive double-pivot off the ball, but they’ll have to find a way to adjust their shape on the ball. They can either do that by having one of their full backs tuck in to form a back three - which could be done by either Allysha Chapman or Gabrielle Carle, or they could have one of their midfielders drop in, which Quinn or Sophie Schmidt would be quite good at.
From there, they can then get Grosso and Fleming to play in between the lines, and then have fun with their back three from there.
For an idea of what that might look like, here are a couple of formation options they could have.
Through that, it’d allow them to be able to play out of the back a bit more, which would be crucial, as this team doesn’t necessarily have the speed to really play in transition, especially with Nichelle Prince and Deanne Rose not being fully fit, while allowing them to utilize the skills of Buchanan, Lawrence, Fleming and Grosso, in particular, on the ball.
Especially given that they’ve been trying to build out of the back more since the Olympics, this isn’t as if this idea is new, so it’s important that they maximize it.
If not, it’ll only hurt their ability to attack, especially with how easily they got neutralized in midfield when teams matched up to Canada’s 4-2-3-1 with that 4-4-2, hurting the ability of Grosso and Fleming to get forward.
GOAL 🇺🇸🇺🇸#USWNT go up 2-0 over the #CanWNT at the 2023 #SheBelievesCup, as Mallory Swanson adds a second off a bad giveaway at the back by Vanessa Gilles 😳
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) February 17, 2023
🔴 https://t.co/7JFAUhgjL6 pic.twitter.com/KrpdKmJsOb
Plus, with how good their defence is when set, they’ll want to be limiting the number of turnovers that caused, avoiding giving teams free opportunities they might not have otherwise get, so the benefit of such a tweak to their build-up play could have a positive impact on both sides of the ball, too.
