Cyle Larin is on FIRE for Southampton - so how can he translate that form to the CanMNT ahead of the World Cup?
Southampton FC are firing on all cylinders right now, as they’ve now extended their unbeaten run across all competitions to 18 games after a 3-0 win against Blackburn Rovers on Tuesday.
As a result, they’re now up to fourth in the EFL Championship table with four games remaining, sitting within touching distance of automatic promotion to the English Premier League, and are also into the semi-finals of the FA Cup, remaining as the only non-Premier League side in the final four of that competition.
Safe to say, it’s been the sort of bounce-back campaign that fans will have wanted to see from the club after how 2024-2025 went, as they were relegated from the Premier League after accumulating just 12 points from 38 games, marking an unsuccessful return to the English top flight after spending 2023-2024 in the Championship (the first time since 2011-2012 that they had even played at that level).
They’ve still got a lot of work to do now to get promotion over the line this season, let alone to become a Premier League mainstay like they were in the 2010s - but they’ll be pleased with where things stand for them in mid-April.
A big reason for their resurgence as of late, however? The play of CanMNT striker Cyle Larin, who has proven to be a crucial addition to this side. 
Only signed on loan from La Liga side RCD Mallorca at the beginning of February, he’s slotted in seamlessly into his new side, as he’s already scored six goals and added one assist in 15 appearances across all competitions (813 minutes), including four goals in his last seven league appearances.
Given that he’d only scored one goal and added one assist in 15 appearances (402 minutes) across all competitions during an ill-fated loan stint with Dutch side Feyenoord in the first half of the campaign, it’s been a night-and-day transformation for Larin, who looks like an entirely different player with the Saints.
Just looking at the work he did on his two most recent Southampton goals paints the picture of what’s changed.
For example, there was the goal he scored in a 5-1 win over Wrexham on April 7th, as he intercepted a ball in his own half before running the distance of the field and finishing with aplomb.
More aura than @Gymskinlive 🥶 pic.twitter.com/FwZ4RDLhOt
— Southampton FC (@SouthamptonFC) April 7, 2026
Or there was his goal in the recent 3-0 win vs. Blackburn on April 14th, as he showed fantastic movement to make a run on the blindside of his defender to slide in for an easy back-post tap-in.
The Matsuki pass 🪡
— Southampton FC (@SouthamptonFC) April 14, 2026
The Archer assist 💯
The Larin finish 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/ETfsLjpMYP
On each of those goals, Larin showed off a combination of his attacking IQ, instincts, finishing ability, speed and fitness, scoring two goals fitting of a complete striker.
That’s no small detail, because there have been several moments over the last few years where Larin has looked far from the complete package when playing up front, for various reasons. Confidence has been a big reason for that, no doubt, but speed and fitness are quite important, as he’s now moving around as he did earlier in his career - which is quite impressive for someone literally about to turn 31, and had looked to have maybe lost a step in recent years.
Yet, that shows why this move to Southampton has so far been a big success for Larin. When watching him play, he looks fit, fast, sharp and confident, and is finding ways to impact the game on and off the ball, especially around the box, looking like the best version of himself.
For a player who hasn’t scored double-digit goals in a season since 2020-2021, when he helped power Turkish side Besiktas to a domestic double with a 23-goal, 6-assist campaign, this is incredibly encouraging to see, as he’s struggled to find consistency in his game ever since that campaign.
Crucial from Cyle 💯 pic.twitter.com/Z9GDavrIPc
— Southampton FC (@SouthamptonFC) March 11, 2026
He’s had good flashes of form across the last few seasons - one can’t forget the magical half-season run he had with La Liga side Real Valladolid at the end of 2022-2023, where he had eight goals and three assists in 19 appearances, or the four goals he scored in seven Copa Del Rey games in Mallorca’s run to the final of that tournament in 2023-2024.
On the flipside, he’s also had spells he’ll want to forget, such as the half-season he spent at Club Brugge in 2022-2023, where he scored just once in 13 appearances, or this recent loan with Feyenoord.
Of course, it’s worth noting that this recent run has come in a small sample size, so it’s not as if the last few months are enough to suggest that he is about to go on a run of multiple double-digit seasons to begin his 30s - he has always been a streaky goalscorer for club and country (Canadians will remember the run of 16 goals he scored in 19 games across a 12 month span between March of 2021 and 2022, which played a big role in Canada’s ability to qualify for the 2022 World Cup).
At the same time, when considering how Larin has played across this run, as well as the level of the league he’s playing in (the Championship is ranked as the ninth-strongest league by OPTA), you can’t help but be encouraged by what you’ve seen as of late.
Taylor's ball 🪡
— Southampton FC (@SouthamptonFC) March 22, 2026
Tom's cut back 🎯
Cyle's finish 💥 pic.twitter.com/0uBqaMyySP
Plus, it’s worth noting the context behind the timing of this run. Not only is he scoring regularly for a team that is pushing for big things at a crucial time of the season (it’s not as if he’s burying goals for a team that has nothing to play for), but he’s doing so at a time of extra scrutiny for a player of his calibre, as he’s also fighting to play a big role for the CanMNT at this summer’s World Cup, which they’re co-hosting.
While he’s always been likely to feature for Canada this summer, there have been moments over the last few years where it was pondered if Larin would be able to maintain a high enough level to keep the starting role he had at the 2022 World Cup, especially with the emergence of some new striker options in recent years.
At the very least, even if he were to make this year’s World Cup team, minutes weren’t expected to be easy to come by for him, which hasn’t always been the case for Larin, who has 88 caps for Canada and is the men’s program's second all-time leading scorer.
Because of that, there was arguably extra pressure on Larin when embarking on this move to England, as he looked to improve his Canadian stock while helping lead a Southampton side that was desperately looking to replace the pivotal Adam Armstrong, who had scored 11 goals and added four assists in 32 games before leaving midseason to join Premier League side Wolverhampton Wanderers. Given how poorly Larin’s Feyenoord loan stint had gone, Southampton were taking a big gamble on him, which could’ve flamed out spectacularly for both parties had it gone wrong.
Yet, that shows why it’s been so encouraging to see Larin respond the way he has, as that’s a sign of his mentality and his ability to respond to adversity - sometimes, that can be the most important skill for a forward to have, given the volatile nature of the position.
Introducing... Cyle Larin 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/SbNE2Fng1n
— Southampton FC (@SouthamptonFC) February 7, 2026
That’s why Larin finds himself in the form that he’s in for club, and he’s also given himself a fresh start for Canada, putting himself back in contention to start games at the World Cup after just starting four of Canada’s last 16 games since the start of 2025.
Before looking at what Larin’s form means for his Canadian aspirations, however, it’s worth diving into the numbers behind his Southampton form to see what’s changed for him at his new club.
When looking at his goals, all six have come within the box, which is encouraging to see, with only one of the six coming from the penalty spot, coming in an FA Cup matchup vs. Leicester City. For a striker of Larin’s profile, who is at his best when in and around the box, that’s the sort of area where you want to see him thrive.
He’s not actually been shooting the ball as much as you’d expect, averaging 1.81 shots per 90, but he’s making the most of them, as he’s averaging 0.51 xG per 90, meaning that he’s generating an impressive 0.28 xG per shot. And even if you remove the penalty from that equation, he’s averaging 0.41 npxG per 90, and 0.25 npxG per shot, which is still very good.
Plus, for context, it’s worth noting that Southampton’s FA Cup run is actually souring those numbers a bit, too - Larin has only generated one shot in three appearances in that competition, that penalty goal against Leicester, as he otherwise failed to get a shot off in the fifth round against Premier League side Fulham and in the quarter-finals in his side’s shock upset of current Premier League leaders Arsenal.
That’s not that surprising to see, though, as Southampton understandably had to do a lot of suffering off the ball in those Fulham and Arsenal matches - although, to their credit, they proved to be quite comfortable in doing that despite typically being a lot more possession-dominant in Championship action.
Naturally, Larin has generated better numbers in the Championship (he’s been better-suited to those games where his team has had more of the ball), as in just over 600 minutes of action there, he’s averaging 0.55 xG, 2.22 shots and 0.25 xG per shot, per 90 minutes, as well as 3.4 touches per 90, which are all extremely good numbers. Therefore, if you had doubts about the validity of the five goals Larin has scored in Championship action, you don’t have to worry - he’s averaged 0.59 goals per 90, which shows that he’s right in the range of where he should be, considering the shot volume and quality that he’s generating.
Plus, as a bonus, he’s also averaging 83.3% pass completion on the 13.3 passes he’s attempting per 90, which shows that he’s had good hold-up play - especially considering how little he’s been asked to touch the ball despite Southampton’s possession-based system. 
Here's how Larin has compared to his Championship peers since arriving in the league - he's been absolutely elite in terms of generating high-xG chances, and these numbers are only from April 3rd - meaning he doesn't have his goals against Wrexham and Blackburn included in the dataset (WyScout)
Interestingly, though, this isn’t all that surprising to see. At Feyenoord, for all of his struggles in terms of scoring goals, he did a pretty good job of generating chances for himself, as he averaged 0.65 xG, 3.01 shots and 4.14 touches in the box, which are better than what he’s had at Southampton.
What that shows, however, is the value of confidence in Larin’s case, as he’s been able to actually take advantage of the opportunities he’s generating at Southampton, which is good to see, as he looked like he had zero confidence in front of goal while at Feyenoord. 
Here's Larin's shotmap from this season with both Feyenoord and Southampton - as seen here, he's consistently gotten himself into dangerous situations, even if his finishing has varied (WyScout)
Considering that he didn’t generate a whole lot of opportunities during the 2024-2025 campaign with Mallorca, where he had just 0.29 xG and 1.54 shots despite having 3.21 touches in the box per 90, it’s good to see that he’s been consistently finding chances in and around the box, even before his Southampton loan.
Typically, Larin’s never really had a problem with that side of his game - in recent years, he averaged 0.46 xG and 2.58 shots on 3.98 touches in the box per 90 for Mallorca in 2023-2024, 0.44 xG and 2.57 shots on 4.35 touches in the box per 90 for Valladolid in his half-season stint in 2022-2023 and even 0.54 xG and 2.85 shots on 3.94 touches in the box per 90 in Club Brugge in the other half of 2022-2023. Then, in his last two seasons with Besiktas, he averaged 0.38 xG and 2.26 shots on 3.8 touches in the box per 90 in 2021-2022, and 0.41 xG and 2.22 shots on 4.12 touches in the box per 90 during his remarkable 2020-2021 campaign.
All that data shows is that no matter how streaky Larin has been, he’s done a good job of generating chances for himself in and around the box, last season aside.
That’s worth noting, as that ties in nicely to the next discussion, as was promised earlier - diving into what Larin's recent run of form means for his Canadian ambitions. 
Based on the above data, it shows that typically, no matter his form, Larin has had no problems generating a consistent number of xG and shots, with his finishing being what’s varied the most, be it due to his own form, the system at the club he’s at or a multitude of other factors. That’s why his 2024-2025 Mallorca campaign was seen as a surprising outlier, especially when seeing how he’s been able to statistically bounce back in 2025-2026, which proves that it wasn’t an age-related decline as some had worried.
With that in mind, however, it’s fascinating to dive into what has happened with Larin for Canada, where he’s scored just two goals in his last 28 appearances, including just one goal in the 22 games he’s played since the arrival of head coach Jesse Marsch.
Given Marsch’s desire to deploy two strikers up front, with one of those two being Jonathan David, that shows why there’s been so much scrutiny on Larin and other Canadian striker options such as Tani Oluwaseyi, Promise David, and Daniel Jebbison to name a few, as Marsch is still searching for the best partner for Jonathan David - considering that David has scored 13 of the 36 goals Canada has scored under Marsch with all of the other strikers combining for six, that’s been a pretty fruitless search so far.
Returning to Larin, though, it leads to the next question - how has Larin performed relative to his usual attacking standard when playing up front for Canada? And the answer is that he’s struggled, especially since Marsch’s arrival.
GOAL 🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 16, 2024
CYLE LARIN makes it 1-0 for the #CanMNT vs. Panama!
It's a lesson in Maplepressing as Canada's high press turns over the ball and Larin scores from the turnover at the stroke of half-time 😎
🔴 Watch LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/Pyo3nEqjvl
In those 22 games, he’s averaging just 0.27 xG and 1.6 shots per 90 on 3.94 touches in the box per 90, which are in line with the numbers he had in that poor 2024-2025 campaign with Mallorca. Considering that he’s typically averaged around 0.56 xG and 2.58 shots per 90 on 4.38 touches in the box per 90 across the 4000+ CanMNT minutes he has on record with WyScout (which also includes those 22 games under Marsch!), it shows the difficulties Larin has perhaps had with adjusting his offensive game to this new system (even if he’s been praised for the work he’s done defensively).
Because of that, it shows the challenge that Canada now faces heading into this summer. As it stands, it’s clear that Cyle Larin has taken the lead in the race to pair alongside Jonathan David (when presuming that Canada persists with a two-striker set-up), especially after Promise David’s recent injury, Tani Oluwaseyi’s inconsistent minutes for club and Daniel Jebbison’s inconsistent season.
FORM GUIDE 📈
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) April 13, 2026
Lots of movement this week as CanMNT 🇨🇦 stars find the back of the net over the weekend 😎
Here's @mitchelltierney with your latest update from club, as the CanWNT 🇨🇦 gear up for international action vs. Korea Republic 👀
READ: https://t.co/4KxJf8oJFD pic.twitter.com/duB5sjlbZq
If Larin is to earn that starting role, though, it’s clear that there needs to be an emphasis on ensuring that he’s put in a position to do what he’s best at, which is to get on the end of high-xG opportunities in the box. When looking at the best versions of Larin, such as the one Southampton are currently getting, or as he showed during his best stints with Mallorca, Valladolid or Besiktas, the common denominator is that he was regularly getting on the end of those high-xG opportunities.
With Canada, he hasn’t been doing that as of late, which has helped explain why he’s struggled to find the net much since Marsch’s arrival.
Granted, that’s been as much a broader issue as it has been one with Larin specifically - even for as good as Jonathan David has been, there's a feeling that he could also be getting on the end of more dangerous shots around the box - showing that some of the attacking issues have been a bit more systematic.
Therefore, if Canada is to get the best version of David, Larin and their other attackers this summer, look for them to take those strides forward offensively - a tall task after a March window where they generated just 1.625 non-penalty xG across ~180 minutes of action, an average of 0.06 xG per shot (OPTA).
There’s a world where a Canadian team, led by a partnership of David and Larin, thrives offensively, but that world likely only exists if they’re to make some small tweaks to their system - no matter what direction they go in up front, those tweaks seem non-negotiable for a team that has scored just three non-penalty goals in their last seven games, and has struggled to score goals in some of the bigger matches they’ve played over the last few years.
All numbers via WyScout unless otherwise noted.
