CanWNT's path towards gold medal defence laid out in 2024 Olympics draw: Can they repeat?
The CanWNT’s path towards defending their Olympic gold medal was laid out last week, as the draw for the 2024 Olympic football tournaments took place in Paris last Wednesday.
There, Canada found out they’d be drawn with hosts France, Colombia and New Zealand in Group A for the tournament, giving an idea of who they’ll need to beat to kick off the defence of their 2021 Olympic gold medal.
Overall, there’s a lot to like about that group, too, because while a matchup against the hosts is never anything to scoff at, Canada avoided some tough teams like Spain and Germany out of Pot 1, as well as Brazil and Australia out of Pot 3, who are both sides they’d probably rather face further down the road, which is positive.
Then, on top of that, won’t have to worry about playing teams they’re already scheduled to play before the Olympics, either, such as Brazil or Japan, as Canada’s guaranteed to play the former at the She Believes Cup next month, and has a strong chance at playing the latter based on their result against Brazil.
On her general thoughts:
— Rise Higher (@RiseHigherCa) March 20, 2024
BP: "I'm excited for the group. I didn't want to play familiar opponents. I'm excited to play a home nation—that's always an experience. We don't have a lot to draw on with Colombia, and we have a history with New Zealand.
And in a sense, it’ll feel like a tradition of sorts to play the hosts, too, given that they’ve done so in each of their previous four Olympic appearances, twice doing so in the group stage in 2008 and 2021, and twice in the knockout stages in 2012 and 2016.
Therefore, Canada will be pleased with the outcome of this draw. Of course, it’ll now be up to them to make the most of this opportunity, but having a favourable draw can never be a bad thing, giving them a boost as they head into this Olympic journey.
With that in mind, here’s a look at what to expect from this group, and what this will mean for this Canadian side going forward.
What to expect from Group A?
To begin, it’s important to take a closer look at that group, as there’s a lot to take away from this set of teams for Canada.
Official: The #CanWNT/#CanXNT have been drawn into Group A for the 2024 Olympics
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) March 20, 2024
Their group is as follows:
France🇫🇷
Colombia🇨🇴
Canada🇨🇦
New Zealand🇳🇿
Tough test with the hosts🇫🇷, while🇨🇴 is also a good and new challenge, and 🇳🇿 is a familiar foe
Pretty good draw for 🇨🇦!
First, there’s third-ranked France, who have big dreams of becoming just the second-ever women’s team to win this tournament as hosts, following in the footsteps of the United States, who won the 1996 edition in Atlanta. Given that was the first-ever edition of this tournament, that shows how rare it’s otherwise been for host teams to win it, demonstrating the size of the task that awaits France this summer.
Yet, despite that, France believes that they have what it takes to win, as they search for their first major tournament win, having never even reached a final of either the Olympics, World Cup or Euros, with fourth-place showings at the 2011 World Cup and 2012 Olympics, as well as a third-place finish at the 2022 Euros, standing out as their big moments for their program.
Coming off a mixed World Cup last year, where they fell on penalty kicks to hosts Australia in the quarter-finals, they feel that they could’ve gone deeper than they eventually did, and will look to prove that at this tournament.
Because of that, Hervé Renard’s side will be one to watch at this tournament. Loaded with a talented group headlined by a young core of Lyon’s Selma Bacha, Kadidiatou Diani and Delphine Cascarino, as well as PSG’s Grace Geyoro, Sakina Karchaoui and Marie-Antoinette Katoto, and supported by veterans such as Eugénie Le Sommer, Amandine Henry and Wendie Renard, among others, this team has every reason to believe they can contend for gold.
But, as is always the case with France, the biggest question will be if they can overcome the psychological hurdle that always seems to catch them at these tournaments, where they don’t always live up to their potential in the games.
Secondly, Canada will have to worry about 23rd-ranked Colombia, who enter this tournament as a dark horse, coming off a big 2023 World Cup, where they made it to the quarter-finals for the first time in their history.
Not only that, but they sent quite the message along the way, too, defeating strong teams in the likes of South Korea, Germany and Jamaica, and only narrowly fell 2-1 to eventual runner-ups England in that quarter-final matchup.
Yet, a large reason for that was the breakout of Linda Caicedo, the 19-year-old currently playing at Real Madrid, who scored in both wins over South Korea and Germany, showing why she’s already viewed as one of the best players in the world.
Supported by a solid team that is filled with veterans such as Catalina Usme, Daniela Montoya, Carolina Arias and Lady Andrade, as well as youngsters such as Manuela Vanegas and Mayra Ramirez, the latter of which being the recent world record women’s transfer to Chelsea, and there are some interesting names to keep an eye out for on this squad.
And as they showed at the recent Gold Cup, where they participated as one of the invited South American teams, they’re a feisty and frustrating unit, too, one that can match that talent with togetherness and an ability to get under opposing teams skins, which will be something Canada will keep an eye on.
Lastly, 28th-ranked New Zealand is the third team in this group, and they’ve got some big dreams to accomplish in this tournament. Their fifth straight participation at the Olympics, they’ve only made it out of the group stages once, all the way back in 2012, something they’d love to change this time around.
Coming off a World Cup that they co-hosted, there’s some positive momentum surrounding this team, too. They failed to exit the group stages for a sixth time out of six World Cup participations, but were unlucky not to do so, finishing tied with second-place Norway, missing out on the knockout stages via goal difference.
As a result, it left them with a sour taste in their mouths after they’d done well to beat a favoured Norway side in their tournament opener before drawing Switzerland in the last game, as they were outdone by a loss to the Philippines in between.
So now, they’re eager to build off that heading into these Olympics, knowing that they showed that they can compete with some tough sides at the World Cup.
Especially as they endure a generational shift, having called in 17 players 25 or under to their qualifiers for this tournament, this tournament could be a chance for some younger names to break out, such as Indiah-Paige Riley of PSV, who already has six goals in 22 caps at the age of 22, Gabi Rennie, who has 31 caps at the same age, or 24-year-old Claudia Bunge, who captained the team at Olympic qualifiers.
Through that, they’ll look to push this team onto a new era, as they go from a team that consistently shows up at these major tournaments but doesn’t do much at them, to one that wants to consistently push into the knockout rounds.
The path towards another gold medal laid out for Canada:
While the draw was crucial to figure out which three teams Canada will have to take on in the group stages, it also helped provide an idea of what a potential path towards another gold medal could look like for Canada, with the tournament’s format now laid out.
Our Gold Medal defence begins with France 🇫🇷, Colombia 🇨🇴 and New Zealand 🇳🇿#CANWNT pic.twitter.com/tbInp6I6Yc
— CANWNT (@CANWNT) March 20, 2024
And within that, there are several things to keep an eye out on.
First, it’s important to note that in the Olympics, with there being just 12 teams, split into three groups of four, you have to either finish top 2 in your group or be one of the top 2 third-place finishers, as eight out of 12 teams progress to the next round.
What that means is that to advance, you essentially have to win a game, and that’s usually enough. Just look at the last three tournaments, where only two teams failed to advance despite winning a group stage game - North Korea in 2012 and New Zealand in 2016. Other than that, every other team that won at least one group stage game in a tournament advanced, showing why it would be a huge surprise if Canada were to do anything but make it out of the group.
But as many know, the big thing to watch out for is how they advance, as not every spot in the knockout stages is created equally. For example, finishing first in a group can give a big advantage, helping one avoid certain teams until later on, whereas squeaking out as a second or third-place team can make for a rough journey to the knockout stages.
Ultimately, it doesn’t matter in terms of crowning a winner - Canada finished second in their group at the 2021 Olympics, but then navigated through a gauntlet of Brazil, the US and Sweden to be crowned gold medallists - but one can imagine they wouldn’t have complained with an easier path to the final.
Because of that, they’ll look to top their group this time around, as there’d be big advantages to them doing so. For example, if they win their group, their quarter-final matchup would either be against the third-place team in Group B or C, based on who the two third-placed teams are.
On paper, that’s either Australia in Group B or Brazil in Group C, as those are the two pot 3 teams in that group. Given that’s two matchups they’ve done relatively well in lately, beating Australia four times in their last five meetings (although their one loss was a 4-0 drubbing at the 2023 World Cup), and sitting with 3W-3D-3L against Brazil, they’d take that.
Especially considering the alternative, as finishing second would see them play the runner-up in Group B, which would likely either be the US or Germany, they’d probably prefer the other options.
Otherwise, finishing third would be even more disastrous, because if Canada were to emerge as one of the third-place teams, they’d play the winners of Group C, which are expected to be the defending World Cup champions and the current favourites to win the Olympics - Spain.
Therefore, it’ll be imperative that Canada does well in the group stages. Their path after the quarter-final is a moot point, no matter if they finish 1st, 2nd or third and win that quarter-final, they’d likely face a team like Spain, the US, Germany or Japan, but you’d much rather do that in the semi-finals than in the quarters, as you’re at least guaranteed to play for a medal of some sorts there instead of risking getting sent home.
But to get to the semi-finals, you’d much rather go through Australia or Brazil instead of the US, Spain or Germany, even if it feels like a bit of a “pick your poison” scenario when top teams like Australia and Brazil are considered the ‘easier’ options.
Yet, such is the nature of the Olympics, where due to the small size, it pits many high-quality teams against each other, making it quite the battle to go out and win gold, showing how impressive Canada’s 2021 triumph was.
Preparation plans set to be finalized soon:
Now, all that’s left for Canada is to start preparation for the Olympics, as they must now figure out what their 18-player squad will look like and pick their four alternates, all while continuing to iron out their tactical profile.
To do that, they’ll have six crucial games to play between now and the Olympics, giving them a chance to pick that final team, while still allowing them to work and grow in their new-look 3-4-2-1 formation that they’ve worked on since September of last year.
Priestman confirms Canada will play 6 games before the Olympics.
— SHE scores bangers (@SHEscoresbanger) March 20, 2024
Two in the SBC, 2 in the May window, 2 in the July window.
And with the draw now complete, they can also start to plan how to best prepare for those in their group, too. That’s key, as that has a big effect on their future plans, as they’d be unlikely to schedule a friendly with either France, Colombia or New Zealand now, for example, knowing that they’ll be playing them at the Olympics.
Yet, that’s why they’re pleased not to draw Brazil or Japan, given the upcoming She Believes Cup, as mentioned earlier.
Now, the big goal will be to find the right teams to play in those six games, with four slots to fill out of those six with She Believes Cup taking up the first window, leaving them with empty slots in late May/early June and in July.
There, they can now plan to pick four teams that will help them best evaluate the last battles for their Olympic squad, and test them tactically all while preparing them for their three Olympic opponents, something that wouldn’t have been possible to plan for a week prior.
Therefore, it’ll be intriguing to now see how Priestman prepares for this. She got the balance right ahead of the 2021 Olympics, as pre-tournament friendlies against England, Wales, Brazil and the Czech Republic were a perfect mix of level, style and experience to prepare Canada for what they’d await at the Olympics.
On the 18 & players working to fitness:
— Rise Higher (@RiseHigherCa) March 20, 2024
BP: "Fitness is critical in an 18, but also the x-factor. Do you need to take 18 90-minute players? Arguably yes, but there's some players critical to this team's success, and that's why I'm leaving it as long as I can."
Because of that, don’t be surprised for them to go for a similar mix, one that likely includes a tier-one team (as they did with England), another Olympics-bound team not in their group (as they did with Brazil), and some other wildcard sides (as they did with Wales and the Czech Republic), perhaps based out of South America, Africa or Asia to provide a different test given the variety of their Olympic group.
From there, they’ll hope to book a couple of those games at home, giving Canadian fans one last chance to see this team before they head to Paris, where a big task awaits them as they look to defend gold.
The journey towards that begins now, thanks to the draw, but as seen here, the hard work is just starting for this Canadian team.
