THE BREAKDOWN: What has plagued the CanWNT in their matches against top 10 sides?
The CanWNT’s recent woes against top 10 sides continued in the April window, as they fell 1-0 to sixth-ranked Brazil in their final match of the FIFA Series friendly invitational tournament.
After opening the tournament with wins over Zambia and the Republic of Korea, they ended the camp on a tough note, as Canada put in a good performance against Brazil but were unable to turn that into a victory.
As a result, they’ve now extended their losing streak against sides ranked in the top 10 to six games, with those defeats coming against second-ranked US (x2), fifth-ranked Japan (x2), 10th-ranked Netherlands and now Brazil.
🆙1️⃣❗️#CANWNT rises to 9th in FIFA’s April Rankings Update pic.twitter.com/JYxu8Da54N
— CANWNT (@CANWNT) April 21, 2026
Even more worryingly, they haven’t scored a single goal across those six games, either, losing by a combined score of 10-0. Granted, they have lost four of those six games by a score of 1-0, so a pair of 3-0 losses from last year (against the US and Japan) are skewing that aggregate score a bit, but the fact remains that Canada has struggled to score in games against top teams, even if they’ve been pretty decent defensively.
With that in mind, it's interesting to pose the question: statistically, what has stood out from those defeats? Are there any numbers that stand out when looking at where this team has struggled against top 10 teams? 
When doing that, a lot of interesting things come to the forefront.
First, to offer a bit of context to Canada’s numbers against the top 10 teams, it’s worth creating a chart that includes all of their games across that span, to help compare what’s different for them when they’re facing a side ranked in the top 10 versus one that’s a bit lower down the rankings.
Therefore, here’s a chart that shows how they’ve performed in several key statistical categories across their last 19 games - for those wondering why 19 games, that’s the number of matches Canada has played since the start of 2025, which also happens to be when head coach Casey Stoney took charge of the team. 
Here's are some statistics from each of Canada's last 19 games. Games in blue are vs. top 10 opposition, with games in orange against those outside. Average numbers in each category are at the bottom (WyScout)
Given that all of these six defeats against top 10 sides have come since the start of 2025, it makes sense to look at all of the games this Canadian side has played across that span to help better understand their struggles against top teams.
In fact, fittingly, across those 19 games, Canada has played six games against teams in the top 10 in the FIFA Rankings, eight games against teams ranked 11th-30th, and five games against teams ranked 31st or lower, too, further showing why this sample of games is so fascinating to analyze.
To that point, had Canada played a proportionately higher number of lower-ranked teams, or higher-ranked teams, it would have been harder to make sweeping statements such as “they struggle in possession” or “they don’t press as much” - since they have a pretty even split of teams against different levels, though, you can make statements like that while adding appropriate context where needed (i.e to say they’re good in possession, but especially against lower-ranked sides).
Therefore, when looking at the numbers from those 19 games, a few things stand out - Canada has held a good amount of possession (just over 54% per game), they press well (17.84 high recoveries and 9.90 PPDA per game), they generate okay shot volume (11.32 shots per game), and they play direct in possession (4.07 passes per possession per game). That’s not that surprising to see, however - under Stoney, Canada has wanted to be a more aggressive team on both sides of the ball, playing more direct in possession while pressing more defensively, and the numbers reflect that.
Otherwise, they’re slightly overperforming their offensive xG of 1.76 (scoring 1.84 goals per game), and are significantly overperforming their defensive xG of 1.36 (conceding 0.95 goals per game), which makes sense - offensively, Canada have had some big games against lower-ranked teams, while defensively, they’ve had their numbers skewed by some bad games against higher-ranked teams.
Overall, though, there’s a lot to be encouraged by, which makes sense - across those 19 games, Canada has a record of 9W-2D-8L, which isn’t bad, especially when you remember that five of those losses came during a rough stretch of play at the end of 2025. Mostly, across those 19 games, Canada has played pretty well, and have mostly earned the results to reflect that - at least when playing against teams outside of the top 10, that is.
Speaking of those games against top 10 teams, what stands out when diving into the numbers from those games?
Naturally, a lot more alarm bells ring out when looking at those six games. It’s not as if that’s a small sample size, either - 540 minutes of football is a pretty healthy datapoint to look at, especially when a lot of trends emerge across those games. 
Here are Canada's numbers from matches exclusively against top 10 teams (WyScout)
What’s most fascinating, too, is that the two pillars of Canada’s style of play - their direct possession play and aggressive press - become a lot less efficient in those matches against top teams.
Offensively, they stop shooting (averaging 6.5 shots per game), lack quality in those shots (generating 0.7 xG per game), and hold less of the ball (42% possession per game). Meanwhile, defensively, they become a lot more permissive (allowing 18.17 shots per game), leak quality opportunities (conceding 2.55 xG per game), while becoming less aggressive in their press (8.83 high recoveries and 15.61 PPDA per game).
Yet, that helps give an idea of where Canada has struggled most in these big games. Of course, their statistics were always going to drop off in these bigger games, which makes sense, but that they drop off to this level is the key worry.
Especially when looking at the fact that the drop-off is coming on both sides of the ball, more specifically. It’s no secret that this Canadian team has struggled to score goals in recent years, with those struggles becoming extra evident against top teams, so it’s not surprising to see their offensive numbers dip significantly - the bigger shock is to see the way their defensive numbers have also dropped, too.
Had their defensive numbers remained strong in big games, then you could point to the offence as the sole problem worth addressing in those matches, but now this Canadian team will also have to figure out how to return to the level they used to hit defensively in those big matches, too.
I love Casey Stoney’s bluntness. On the post match zoom call, I pointed out #canWNT had lots its last 6 games vs top 10 nations. I couldn’t even get my question out about what the team needs to do to be more more competitive vs those nations when she simply said, “Goals.”
— John Molinaro (@JohnMolinaro) April 19, 2026
After all, it’s harder to be better offensively when you spend most of the game on the back foot, which perhaps helps explain Canada’s struggles in big games - they’re not controlling enough of those matches, on either side of the ball.
Yet, that helps put into context some of the issues Canada has had, as they’ve not been able to employ the sort of aggressive defensive plan that’s worked well against lower-ranked teams against these top teams quite yet. Before, their best route to success against top teams was to sit back and hit on the counter, but now, they’ve not yet been able to find similar joy while using a more aggressive system, as top teams have found ways to exploit them when they do that. 
For context, here are Canada's games against non top-10 opposition - unsurprisingly, these are all quite strong, showing that they've typically done well in these matchups, on both sides of the ball (WyScout)
What that all shows, though, is the challenge that the CanWNT faces over the next 18 months. As it stands, they’ve got two major long-term goals, which are to qualify for the 2027 World Cup and 2028 Olympics, and make deep runs at each of those tournaments.
Based on how they’ve played against teams outside of the top 10 since the start of 2025 (9W-2D-2L), they shouldn’t have any problems qualifying for either tournament - to reach the World Cup, they need to beat 56th-ranked Panama in a one-game quarter-final at this year’s Concacaf Championships, and then to reach the Olympics, they’d need to beat 27th-ranked Mexico or 49th-ranked Haiti in the subsequent semi-final.
All eyes on what’s coming: 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗮𝗰𝗮𝗳 𝗪 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽 🔥 pic.twitter.com/MRPAbuxIQQ
— Concacaf W (@ConcacafW) April 21, 2026
But to do well at those tournaments, presuming they make it, they’ll have to find a way to start beating some top 10 teams, as they did on their gold-medal winning run at the 2021 Summer Olympics.
Because of that, look for them to keep refining their game plan so that when they play their next team inside the top 10, they’re able to showcase the sort of efficiency that they’ve so far found against teams further down the rankings, doing so while remaining true to the aggressive philosophy that they want to employ on both sides of the ball.
They might have to tweak some things to make that happen, such as their formation and personnel, but that’s part of the ongoing evolution that sides typically have to face - that’s just the reality of being a top team in any sport.
Canada knows that well, so look for them to take those lessons in stride as they prepare for what lies ahead of them in the rest of 2026.
At the end of the day, they’ll know that if they want to see the fruits of their shift towards a more aggressive approach pay off, it’ll take time for those changes to fully show their best effect, especially in top matches - it is encouraging, for example, that two of Canada’s best performances against top 10 sides have come in 2026 (especially in terms of pressing metrics!).
If they can build on that, they’ll be on the right track, which is exactly what they’ll want to see at this stage of their evolution process.
