THE BREAKDOWN: How can the CanMNT fix attacking woes against low blocks?
After failing to score in back-to-back games for the first time since June of 2024, the big story for the CanMNT after the October window is simple - where are the goals going to come from?
To be fair, it’s not as if that question is without any answers, however. While he didn’t score this window, opening up questions about where he should be deployed, Jonathan David has still scored 11 goals and added four assists under Jesse Marsch - he’s continued to be quite impactful, for the most part, given that he’s contributed to almost half of the 32 goals scored under Marsch.
No doubt, this team’s bread and butter is quite simple - they’re lethal in transition, which accounts for a large chunk of David’s goals, as well as the goals of the next two names who have scored the most under Marsch, which are speedy wingers Tajon Buchanan and Jacob Shaffelburg with four goals apiece.
Where things get dicey, however, is when Canada is tasked with breaking down a low block, and there might’ve been no more jarring example of that than their 1-0 loss to Australia this window, as they failed to score in that game despite keeping 61% of possession, generating 2.61 xG on 16 shots (via WyScout).
The CanMNT's xG plot from their match vs. Australia (WyScout)
Of course, as one would suggest when looking at those numbers, Canada did get a bit unlucky not to score - they did miss three big chances on the day, showing that their finishing, as much as their chance generation, was what let them down in that defeat.
At the same time, it’d be one thing if a game like that were a one-off. Instead, this has been something Canada has struggled with for a while now - they’ve had issues breaking down low blocks for most of Marsch’s tenure, and long before that, too. Because of that, it makes a result like Australia’s more concerning, even despite that element of bad luck.
To that point, it’s telling that when looking further down the list of players who have scored goals in Marsch’s tenure, after David, Buchanan and Shaffelburg, that list isn’t very extensive - four players have scored two goals, and five others have scored one. In particular, the big concern is that among strikers not named Jonathan David, the trio of Tani Oluwaseyi, Promise David and Cyle Larin have combined for just five goals, as those are the sort of players who’d be expected to make the difference against low blocks.
Naturally, that’s not all of their doing - half the battle of being a striker is the service you receive, and those grade-A chances haven’t always been there for them to finish. Ultimately, Canada’s struggles with low blocks doesn’t just come down to individuals, but instead, the collective.
SHAFFELBURG IS DENIED✖️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 11, 2025
The #CanMNT thought they had their equalizer, but Jacob Shaffelburg is denied by a fantastic save from Paul Izzo after a great ball from Liam Millar pic.twitter.com/9qp8FmKXQu
Yet, on that subject, it leads to the big question worth asking - where is Canada struggling most when faced off against low blocks?
Naturally, several things stand out when using the eye test - often, Canada has looked a bit static in possession, as they’ve struggled to create the overloads required to open up space to attack into. From there, they don’t make enough dangerous runs in the box - and they don’t send enough runners there in the first place, which hurts them given the number of times they cross the ball into the box (in 2025 alone, they’re averaging more than double the crosses than their opponents, averaging 13.38 crosses per 90 minutes).
When faced off against low blocks, the important thing to do is to drag players out of position, and the best way to do that is with off-ball movement, which can help create critical overloads on and off the ball, be it wide or in the box, leading to goals like the one below.
GOAL 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 18, 2025
PROMISE DAVID MAKES IT 5 🔥
Look at the footwork on this effort as the #CanMNT go up 5-0 over Honduras 🇭🇳 amid chants of "We want six!"
🔴 Watch Gold Cup on OneSoccer & TSN pic.twitter.com/sYz01FfKjx
But more on that in a bit. Before getting to some clips that help highlight those issues, it’s worth asking more of a statistical question: are there any numbers that stand out from Canada’s offensive play when looking at games where they’ve faced off against low blocks compared to other matches?
To that point, it was interesting to dive into some of the attacking numbers from the 25 games they’ve now played under Marsch, to see if there were any specific trends from game to game. In those games, five key stats were highlighted - possession, goals, xG, shots and passes to the final third.
While there are several other stats to look at, for the most part, those numbers felt quite relevant - to score goals, you need to generate shots and xG, and to do that, it helps if you hold the ball and get to the final third.
In particular, the passes to the final third stat was quite pertinent for this exercise, more specifically - while possession figures would usually help distinguish between games where Canada was facing a low block, not all possession is created equal. For example, Canada could inflate their possession numbers by just keeping the ball in their own half, whereas the passes to the final third numbers give an idea of games where they really had to break down a team sitting back.
With that in mind, here’s a look at that chart with those numbers. 
There, the passes to the final third number ends up being quite critical - the Australia match, for example, was the game where Canada attempted the fourth most passes to the final third in a match under Marsch.
Now, with those numbers in mind, however, that leads to the next step of the exercise - is there anything we can glean from them when it comes to Canada’s ability to score goals? (For those who wonder how lucky or unlucky Canada have been, they’ve scored their 32 goals on 35.79 xG, so they’ve been decently unlucky).
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of that math, however, it’s worth establishing a few ideas.
Firstly, there’s the idea that a team that holds more of the ball should expect to make more final third entries, which is reasonable to suggest. Because of that, it’s pertinent to see if Canada tends to make more passes to the final third in games where they hold more possession - and for the most part, they do that, as the R2 on that scatter plot is a flat 0.5, indicating a decent to strong correlation between those two numbers. 
Here's a scatterplot with Canada's passes to the final third compared to their possession in each of the 25 games they've played under Jesse Marsch
Secondly, there’s the idea that a team that shoots the ball should generate more xG. Of course, there will be teams that prefer shot quantity over shot quality, but for the most part, it’s expected that teams that generate a lot of shots generate more xG - you can’t create xG without shots, after all.
When looking at Canada’s xG and shots, there is also a pretty strong correlation between those numbers, too, as expected - the R2 between those two figures is 0.41, also indicating a decent correlation. 
Here's a scatterplot with Canada's shots compared to their xG in each of the 25 games they've played under Jesse Marsch
Lastly, there’s the third idea to consider - does xG lead to more goals? A big sticking point many have with xG is that it doesn’t always account for the quality of players and the chances actually created, but for the most part, the teams that generate the most xG tend to score goals - again, you can’t score if you don’t shoot the ball (and shooting the ball creates xG).
That sentiment is backed up when comparing Canada’s goals and xG, as the R2 between those two figures is a strong 0.54, which is encouraging to see.
Here's a scatterplot with Canada's goals compared to their xG in each of the 25 games they've played under Jesse Marsch
With those ideas established, that leads to the first comparison worth making - are Canada generating more shots, and in turn, more xG, when they enter the final third more? In theory, they should at least be doing more of the former, as the more final third entries they make, the closer they get to the goal, hence more shots - and as seen above, with more shots comes more xG.
Yet, when comparing Canada’s entries to the final third to both their shots and xG, the correlation is quite weak - the R2 between final third entries and shots is just 0.16, and between final third entries and xG is just 0.04.
Here are two more scatterplots - the one on the left compares Canada's passes to the final third to shots, and the one on the right compares their passes to the final third to their xG
What that does, however, is back up the idea that Canada is struggling to generate shots when they face off against low blocks, as that low R2 indicates they’re almost just as likely to get the same number of shots in games where they enter the final third 20 times as they do when they enter 70. To further back up that point, it’s worth noting that this data is just comparing raw xG and raw shots, too, and not xG per shot or any more specific metrics, too.
Why that last point is important, by the way, is that measuring xG per shot would theoretically be advantageous to chances that come on the counter-attack, where there are fewer defenders and an easier path to the goal. Of course, that information is a big reason for the evolution of high pressing in the modern game, as it’s been proven that the most dangerous chances a team tends to create come immediately after winning the ball back, especially when close to the other goal.
Of course, Canada does that quite well - some of their best offensive performances have come in games where they’ve been able to press their opponents high up the pitch, allowing them to play in transition. What that’s done, however, is create a reality where more and more opponents are becoming content to bypass Canada’s press and play long before sitting back off the ball, daring them to break them down in possession.
That’s why this low block question is so important for Canada, however. Now, in the modern game, the best teams are dangerous in all the important phases of the game - they need to be able to attack in possession and in transition, defend in possession and in transition, and be good at set-pieces on both sides of the ball.
The best offensive teams aren’t always necessarily masters of one area of play, but are at least good at all three - from there, there’s room for them to be elite in one or more categories.
To return to Canada’s numbers, however, that leads to the last question worth posing - is there any correlation between the goals they score and the passes to the final third? While there’s not much difference between that and the comparison done between passes to the final third and Canada’s shots and xG, as was done earlier, it’s still pertinent to see if that correlation offers a final verdict on Canada’s low block woes - maybe they’re foregoing chasing shooting volume in chase of quality.
And there, the answer is clear - yes, they’re not generating goals against low blocks. When looking at Canada’s passes to the final third and the goals they score, the R2 is a flat 0 (yes, zero), meaning that there is no correlation between the number of times Canada gets into the final third in a game and the goals they score.
Here's a scatterplot looking at Canada's passes to the final third and the goals they've scored in the 25 games they've played under Jesse Marsch - as seen above, there is no correlation between the two numbers.
That’s key, as in theory, most teams would relish having more access to the final third (you can’t score goals if you’re not closer to the net!). Yet, for Canada, it doesn’t seem to change anything for their offensive game.
Because of that, it gives an idea of what sort of actionable things Canada will want to work on as they solve these woes - they need to generate more shots, and in turn more xG, in games where they’re entering the final third with regularity.
If not, teams are going to be content with sitting back and letting Canada attack them, and why not - the numbers show that their net won’t be any more vulnerable if they do that, especially when considering that they won’t be getting burned as much in transition.
With that in mind, however, that leads to the second question worth looking at in this piece - what are some things Canada can do to help generate more shots when faced off against low blocks?
To answer that, here are some clips from across this October window (all clips via OneSoccer/TSN) - there are four videos from the Australia match, and four from the 0-0 draw with Colombia, showing how Canada’s woes can manifest themselves against different opponents (even if Australia were sitting a lot deeper than Colombia were on average).
First, here’s this clip against Australia, which ends up being a decent chance - here, Ali Ahmed does a good job of getting to the byline and whipping in a good cross, one that nearly creates a shot. 
In that sequence, two things stand out, positively and negatively.
Positively, you can see the influence of a wide overload, as full back Richie Laryea made an underlapping run in the lead-up to that action, which opened up space for Ahmed to go 1v1 at his defender. Negatively, however, was the fact that all three of Canada’s runners in the box were essentially flat-footed when the ball was crossed, meaning that they weren’t able to attack Ahmed’s floated ball into the box.
Plus, Canada didn’t have any runners at the edge of the box, either, which could’ve allowed Ahmed to cut back the ball - while, of course, giving Canada a bit more threat in case the ball was cleared out, instead of back.
With that in mind, however, here’s another clip from this game, one where that lack of movement in the box is once again quite evident.
To Canada’s credit, they actually did a good job of creating wide overloads again, but every time they looked like they might whip in a cross, they were almost discouraged by the lack of movement and numbers in central areas.
Eventually, they crack and try a ball anyway - naturally, it gets easily cleared.
Of course, to get an idea of how important a good wide overload is, consider this clip - in this sequence, Tajon Buchanan tries to go 1v2 with two Australian players, and unsurprisingly, he’s unable to create the space for a good ball.
Had he waited, perhaps, maybe an overlapping player could have been a good option to find - at the very least, it would have created space for a cross. Not that Canada had the runners in the box to capitalize on that sort of opportunity, anyway.
Lastly, to round off a look at clips from this Australia game, here’s another example of Ahmed doing what you want a winger to do - he runs at his defender and then gets a cross into the box.
In the end, though, his delivery is left wanting, although a lack of movement is again a big problem - Canada has just two players in the box, and they’re too static, reacting to the cross instead of proactively finding a way to meet it.
Then, when shifting to the Colombia match, some similar moments arise.
How about this sequence, for example? Here, Canada has some good movement out wide to start, but they don’t capitalize on it and slow down their attack far too much, leading to a sloppy turnover. 
Then, in this next clip, they get the ball to the area they want to, but Richie Laryea is forced to hesitate when sending in a cutback, because, well, he had no one to cut the ball back to (to the credit of Jonathan David and Ismaël Koné, they did recognize the cutback opportunity, but just far too late in the sequence).
Meanwhile, in this clip, Canada does a great job of creating a dangerous 1v1 out wide with Buchanan, but due to a lack of support and a good Colombian response, the play quickly turns into a 2v3, one that naturally allows Colombia to win the ball back.
There, Canada could’ve benefitted from either an overlap or they could’ve tried a quick 1-2 between Buchanan and Jonathan David to capitalize on the 1v1.
Lastly, to round off clips from this Colombia game, this might be the most egregious example - here, Canada both fail to create a wide overload, as there is no interchange between Ahmed and Laryea out wide - eventually, Ahmed lofts a harmless ball into the box, one that ends up drifting into the goalkeeper's hands.
Of course, the lack of wide overload stands out there with Ahmed and Laryea both looking static, but the movement in the box is also quite noticeable - the three attackers in the box are essentially flat-footed, with no attempts made to offer a bit of different off-ball movement.
In that sequence, for example, Buchanan could’ve darted across from the back post to the near post, Jonathan David could’ve dropped to receive the ball on the turn, and Tani Oluwaseyi could’ve drifted wide. And that’s just one example of many runs they could’ve all made in that scenario (just look at the impact of a dangerous near-post run on this goal from the Gold Cup).
GOAL 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 18, 2025
TAJON MAKES IT 3️⃣
It's 3-0 for the #CanMNT vs. Honduras as Tajon Buchanan finishes off pass across goal with his first touch 💪
🔴 Watch Gold Cup on OneSoccer & TSN pic.twitter.com/sOEpSYF4S5
Yet, what those clips show are the two big things Canada will want to hammer down as they aim to solve these low block woes - their wide overloads, and their movement in the box.
For the wide overloads, the big thing will be to create more overlaps and underlaps - they’re quite dangerous when they get their full backs supporting their wingers with those kinds of runs, like on this Niko Sigur goal from the Gold Cup, which came with Sigur underlapping as a right back.
GOAL 🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 18, 2025
NIKO SIGUR SCORES HIS FIRST FOR THE #CANMNT 😎
Canada go up 1-0 over Honduras with a smooth give-and-go, finished perfectly 💪
🔴 Watch Gold Cup on OneSoccer & TSN pic.twitter.com/ywuwiVMXEG
With those overloads, they can either create more dangerous crossing opportunities if opponents don’t recognize those overloads, or open up space for Canada to then pass the ball centrally and into the box if their opponents push numbers wide to compensate.
Then, with the runs in the box, Canada will need to find ways to overwhelm defenders. For example, with more dynamic movement, such as a forward darting from the back to the front post (or vice versa), that can either drag a defender out of position or create the space for a shot.
GOAL 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) September 5, 2025
Niko Sigur STARTS and FINISHES the counter-attack with a BANGER 🚀
Those CanMNT starting XI locks are starting to look a little flimsy, no? 🔓
🔴 Watch LIVE on TSN & OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/iYecrI50Sx
Here's another example (ironically, again on another Niko Sigur goal), of Canada combining good movement in the box, a wide overload and incisive passing to score a goal vs. Romania
All of a sudden, if you have a couple of players making big runs like that, it can be so hard to defend, especially if Canada can flood the box with decent numbers.
They might need to be a bit more patient on the ball to find those situations where they can create overloads and flood the box, but the pay-off could be significant, should they execute everything properly.
What all that shows, though, is some key areas Canada will look to work on going forward as they look to score more goals, especially against teams that sit back, helping them generate more shots in those games.
Certainly, they should get more practice at fixing this problem going forward, as teams continue to realize the best way to defend them is to sit back and invite them to possess the ball - it’s up to Canada now to make them pay, helping them score more goals going forward.
