THE BREAKDOWN: How Alistair Johnston has become a key offensive threat for Celtic amid hunt for another domestic treble

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Alistair Johnston is on the verge of completing another remarkable season with Celtic, sitting just one victory away from winning his ninth trophy in just two and a half seasons in Scotland. 

Having recently clinched his third straight SPFL title, as Celtic once again dominated that competition en route to their fourth consecutive league title last week, that’s been the latest achievement in a sparkling club campaign for Johnston, who could also win his second domestic treble if Celtic defeats Aberdeen in the Scottish FA Cup final next month. 

Much as he’s been since his arrival at the club at the beginning of 2023, he’s been a key factor in his team’s success this year, too, making 46 appearances across all competitions as of writing, with 45 of them being starts, racking up an impressive 3856 minutes in those appearances. 

Whenever he’s been available, he’s slotted in at his preferred right back spot, giving Celtic solidity at that position, on both sides of the ball.

While he mostly made his impact as a strong 1v1 defender and ball progresser in his first season and a half with the club, however, he took a big step forward offensively this season, as he had a remarkable campaign in terms of his final-third attacking output. 

As of writing, he’s scored four goals and added 12 assists in all competitions, which wouldn’t be a bad haul for a winger, let alone a full back. Yet, that speaks to the biggest change in his game this year - he’s been given more freedom to push into opponents’ final third, and he’s taken on that responsibility without hesitation. 

It’s not surprising to see from him - he did have a four-goal, four-assist season for CF Montréal in MLS play in 2022 - with his play as a wing back in Wilfried Nancy’s side that season being a big reason why Celtic was willing to snap him up after he put in a solid showing for the CanMNT at the 2022 FIFA World Cup that winter. 

At his best, Johnston’s strengths as a full back lies in his defensive play, no doubt, but he can be dangerous on the ball, and has the stamina to push forward and make important overlapping and underlapping runs into the box. 

Celtic started to utilize that this year, as Johnston was given the freedom to support right-winger Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn, who joined the club at the beginning of 2024, in the attack. A left-footed player who drifts inside and plays more as a #10, it was a perfect fit for Johnston, as Kühn’s movement often leaves Johnston with space to move up the field and operate in. 

In particular, he’s able to make more bursting runs into the final third and even into the box, which helps explain his uptick in output, as he’s getting to areas of the field where he is able to deliver dangerous crosses and cutbacks for his teammates to get onto.

Johnston's heatmap in 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 (all competitions). As seen, it's very similar, but his 24-25 map has slightly more colour in the box and centrally (WyScout). 

When looking at the numbers, you can see the impact of that shift. In 2023-2024, he was actually pretty dangerous offensively - he had one goal and seven assists in 42 appearances - and his numbers suggest that he did a great job of pushing into dangerous areas of the field. 

As a result, he averaged 0.03 xG and 0.2 xA per 90 minutes, which is pretty good for a full back. In fact, it’s not that far off what he averaged this year - 0.08 xG and 0.17 xA per 90 - showing that he was doing a great job of getting forward before.

The perfect example of the sort of runs Johnston is making this season. Just watch at how he makes a run from deep, going straight into the box, finding space before delivering a perfect low cross for the assist (video via Scottish League Cup)

What’s changed, however, is Johnston’s touches in the box, as he’s averaging 2.23 touches in the box per 90, compared to 1.91 before.

Another example of Johnston's improved runs, this time on a goal. Having made a pass out wide, he sees space and runs into it, and he gets rewarded for his movement with a goal (video via SPFL)

That might not seem like much, but it’s had a subtle impact elsewhere, such as with his shooting numbers. In 2023-2024, he was averaging 0.49 shots per 90, and this year, he’s averaging 0.48 - yet, as seen in his xG, he’s averaging double the output in that category, showing that he’s getting into more dangerous spots.

Another great run from Johnston, as he recognizes that Motherwell's defenders are overloaded and crashes the box for the goal (video via SPFL)

Interestingly, that might help explain the increase in goals and assists, as otherwise, a lot of his attacking numbers haven’t actually switched that much from before, and in some cases, have slightly decreased.

Last example of Johnston making a run into a central channel, allowing him to score (video via SPFL)

His crosses per 90 have gone from 4.22 (at a 40.2% clip) to 3.55 (at a 34.1% clip), his dribbles per 90 have gone from 1.74 (at a 66.2% clip) to 1.08 (at a 70% clip), his key passes per 90 have gone from 1.18 to 0.89, his passes into the final third per 90 have gone from 12.13 to 10.22, and his passes into the box have gone from 5.23 to 3.29, showing that there have been subtle decreases in each category. 

What that explains, however, is the subtle nature of Johnston’s change in positioning this year. As seen before, he was quite involved on the ball, but when looking at the dribbling, passes into the final third and passes into the box, he played more of a ball progressor role. 

When looking at his increased touches in the box and shooting numbers in 2024-2025, however, it shows that he’s pushing forward more and getting into dangerous areas in the final third.

Another great inverted run from Johnston, who finds space in a central channel, leading to an assist from a dangerous spot in the box (video via SPFL)

That’s backed up by the eye test, as when watching him before this season, the extent of his final third contributions was for him to overlap and whip in crosses.

More of a traditional Johnston assist, but this one comes yet again from an underlapping run, instead of an overlapping run (video via Scottish FA)

Now, he’ll constantly overlap and underlap into the box, often making dangerous runs like a winger. In particular, he does a great job of making selfless runs that don’t always result in him getting a touch, with the goal being to open up a bit of space for Kühn and the other attackers to operate in.

Johnston was rather fortunate to get this assist, but this does show the sort of combination play he will make on the right side, opening up space for a great goal from Kühn (video via SPFL)

That likely explains his lower output in the other categories, as he’s sacrificed some of what he does on the ball for those kinds of runs off the ball, which might not always show up in the offensive categories.

Great run here from Johnston to stretch the field. Even if he hadn't received this ball, there would've been space for Celtic to attack centrally thanks to his run, but that didn't matter as he did a great job of getting on the end of this pass and whipping in a perfect ball (video via SPFL)

Yet, that shows why he’s had such a big jump in offensive output despite that, doubling his goal contributions, as that can only be explained by the areas he’s finding and operating in.

More of a traditional overlap from Johnston, as he gets into the box and delivers an assist (video via SPFL)

For the work he’s done offensively, however, it leads to another important question - has anything shifted defensively? 

The answer there is yes, as his duels per 90 are down from 17.99 to 13.32, and he’s winning them at a 54.5% rate after winning 58% of them last season. Elsewhere, his aerial duels per 90 have gone from 3.11 to 2.4, and his recoveries per 90 have gone from 9.3 to 7.51 - although his interceptions have stayed steady at 2.86 after he averaged 2.8 last season, and his clearances are at 1.82 after sitting at 1.44. 

At the same time, there’s not much to be worried about there. What that shows is A) how good he was defensively last year, and B) how much more dangerous Celtic have been offensively (they’ve scored seven more goals in league play in four fewer games), which has reduced the amount of defending they need to do. 

When Johnston has been called upon defensively, he’s answered the test - just look at his numbers exclusively in the UEFA Champions League over the past two years, which represents the best competition Celtic faces. There, Johnston contests 17.45 duels a game (winning 59.2%), including 2.37 aerial duels per game, and averages 4.5 interceptions, 7.6 recoveries and 2.49 clearances, which are a lot closer to his 2023-2024 numbers.

Given that he’s averaging two more defensive duels per 90 in the UCL than he did in 2023-2024, and three more than in 2024-2025, that reflects well on Johnston, as he had to accumulate those numbers while playing more of a defensive role. 

Yet, that shows why his 2024-2025 output is so impressive. He can still defend when called upon, something he showed in the Champions League again this campaign, but can play more of an elevated offensive role when given the chance to push forward more. 

Here's how Johnston's 2024-2025 campaign compares to his SPFL peers - as seen here, he has been elite in terms of final product; and very good in a lot of other ball progression categories. 

Now, what will be interesting is to see if Johnston’s season catches eyeballs outside of Scotland, potentially leading to interest this summer. For the most part, there hasn’t been much chatter surrounding his name, but he was linked to English Premier League side Fulham this past winter, a potential move that got Canadians quite excited.

That’s something to watch, as Celtic has made a habit of pushing players onto clubs in the top five leagues, especially teams in the Premier League, who know well that Celtic players can adapt to the circuit without much issue. 

In fact, that’s how Johnston earned his opportunity at the club - after the sale of Josip Juranović to Bundesliga side Union Berlin following the World Cup, that led Celtic to buy Johnston as his replacement - so it’d be only natural if Johnston were to have a similar move planned in his future. 

Certainly, it feels like his play for Celtic this season has made that a realistic possibility - that he was able to improve his final product the way he did will entice teams who will already be enamoured with what he can bring to the table defensively and in possession, especially teams like Fulham who ask a lot on both sides of the ball from their full backs. With a lot of other teams in the Premier League also using systems that involve aggressive full back play or deploy wing backs, such as Wolves, Crystal Palace, Brentford and West Ham (among others), it shows that a market could be there for Johnston should any of those clubs have a space open up at right back/right wing back.

The bigger question for Johnston, however, is whether the timing is right to move. While a transfer could push him to another level, he’d be leaving a club where he’s an undisputed starter to potentially end up at a spot where his minutes would be less guaranteed. 

Not only that, but he’s become a fan favourite at Celtic and is a key leader on the team, having worn the captain’s armband earlier this year, which is no small honour at a club of this pedigree. 

Plus, there’s the last factor to consider - it’s a World Cup year, a factor that’s going to be looming large for a lot of Canadians who make moves. You make the right transfer, and you can completely elevate your stock - but the wrong one can equally tank your value just as fast. 

Given that Johnston has faced some competition at full back, with Richie Laryea always a contender to start when healthy, it’s not as if his starting spot is fully guaranteed with Canada, even if he’s a lock to be in that 2026 World Cup squad. After starting all three of Canada’s games at the 2022 World Cup and all six of their games at the 2024 Copa América, he’ll want to play a similar role in 2026, and the best way to do that is to remain in form. 

Because of that, it’ll be interesting to see if he takes a risk and leaves this summer, or waits and sees. Both options could be gambles - there’s always a chance that he stagnates if he stays at Celtic after such a good season, especially given the level of competition they face in the league - so it’s not as if staying is without peril, even if it’s the safer choice and all but guarantees he’ll play in the Champions League (which is unlikely to happen if he moves to a top five league club). 

It’s hard to imagine Johnston taking a step back in either scenario, however, as his career has been on a clear upward trajectory since he was drafted by Nashville SC ahead of the 2020 MLS campaign, yet, that shows why the potential of a move is so exciting - it feels like he’ll be ready to step up and rise to that challenge. 

No matter what happens, however, Canadians will be keeping a close eye on him given his importance to Jesse Marsch’s team, as he looks to carry the momentum of another big year into what’s to come for him with club and country.