TACTICAL PREVIEW: What can the CanMNT expect from Mexico in Nations League semi-finals?
The CanMNT can take a big step towards winning a trophy on Thursday, as they get set to take on Mexico in the semi-finals of the 2024-2025 Concacaf Nations League.
There, with a win, they can reach the final of this tournament for a second time in the past three years, where they’ll hope for a better outcome than the 2023 final, which they lost 2-0 to the United States. If they lose, however, they will further extend their 25-year trophy drought, missing a golden opportunity to end it in the city they last won in, Los Angeles, which came at the 2000 Gold Cup.
Yet, while many might already be looking ahead to the final, where the tantalizing prospect of getting a rematch against the US awaits, this Mexico match looms large. Even if Mexico has had a rough couple of years by their standard, failing to reach the knockout stages of the 2022 World Cup and winning just one of the last five major Concacaf tournaments since 2020, this is still a giant of the region.
Plus, as Canada learned in a friendly last September, what this Mexican team lacks in talent compared to past teams, they can make up for in other areas. Most notably, that game showcased their physicality, as Mexico fouled Canada 23 times, the most Canada has been fouled in a game under Jesse Marsch - the next biggest total is 18, which came in friendlies against France in June and the United States in September.
With that in mind, here’s a closer look at what to expect from this Mexican side, and what Canada can learn from that friendly and recent Mexico matches to get set for this semi-final.
What did the September friendly reveal?
Returning to that September friendly, however, the big thing that stood out was the intensity at which the game was played. No doubt, the fouls total reflects that, but even beyond that, it felt like a game where a lot more was at stake than the typical friendly.
One just had to look at the bench at Mexico’s coach, Javier Aguirre, who spent most of the game quite animated on the touchline, forcing himself into an outfit change from a suit to a tracksuit as the game went on.
That energy carried over onto the pitch, as Mexico made it clear that they were willing to get into a physical duel with Canada, one that Marsch’s team was happy to match - their 19 fouls are the second-most they’ve had in a game under his tutelage, only second to the 21 they had against Suriname in the second leg of their Nations League quarter-finals.
Yet, while it was clear that the physical play was by design, it’s worth noting that Mexico was also quite solid defensively. Set up in a 4-4-2 block off the ball, they stayed compact and organized, intending to stop Canada from playing through them. 
Mexico set up in their 4-4-2 block against Canada
To do that, Mexico’s focus was to keep their two blocks of four close together, with their defensive line pushing up to support their midfield line whenever Canada tried to enter that area of the pitch.
They were content to let Canada play out of the back - they had just five final third recoveries compared to Canada’s 17, as they let Canada do the pressing. Instead, Mexico tried to dispossess Canada centrally, as they had 32 recoveries in the middle third to go along with all of their fouls.
This is where Mexico wants to press Canada - as evidenced by this shot of Ali Ahmed getting fouled.
To Mexico’s credit, their plan worked perfectly - Canada generated just four shots in this game, for a total of 0.19 xG - the former is their second-lowest total under Marsch, and the latter the lowest.
Because of that, don’t be surprised to see Mexico try to emulate similar tactics in this match. Of course, some factors forced them to play as they did, as they were missing several key players and were in just their second game under Aguirre, but it was telling that they chose to use this friendly to play like it was a continental semi-final, and it’s hard to imagine them changing now that their next meeting will be in an actual semi-final.
Have Mexico changed anything since?
Now, however, it’s worth looking at Mexico’s recent matches, as since this Canada friendly, they played the US in another friendly in October, before taking on Honduras in their Nations League quarter-finals in November.
There, they tweaked their approach slightly, with each tweak helping give a better idea of what to expect in this Canada rematch.
First, against the US, they were content to be without the ball, as their possession numbers dropped from 50% against Canada to 42% against the US. There, however, they pressed much more aggressively, making an impressive 23 recoveries in the final third.
Through that adjustment, they limited the US to just three shots and 0.23 xG as they picked up a 2-0 win, doing well to nullify the Americans in a commanding showing.
Raúl Jiménez with a perfect free kick to give Mexico the 1-0 lead 🎯
— B/R Football (@brfootball) October 16, 2024
Watch Mexico vs. USA live on TNT and Max 📺 pic.twitter.com/rja5yJviIY
After those back-to-back defensive masterclasses against Canada and the US, however, they came down to earth in leg one of their quarter-final against Honduras, losing 2-0. There, they allowed 10 shots and 0.93 xG, suggesting that they were a bit unlucky to concede two, but in that game they held 60% of the ball and only recovered the ball in Honduras’s third of the pitch eight times, showing that they had once again tweaked their approach to be more conservative defensively.
To their credit, they stuck with that in the second leg, too, as they won 4-0 to reverse that deficit. There, they kept Honduras to four shots and 0.17 xG in another dominant defensive performance, while keeping 73% of possession at the other end. Interestingly, however, they completed just 10 final-third recoveries, though, once again showing that when they were without the ball, they chose to sit back instead of pressing.
📹 ¡Revive lo mejor del partido!
— Concacaf Nations League (@CNationsLeague) November 20, 2024
México 🇲🇽 vs 🇭🇳 Honduras#CNL pic.twitter.com/RdMMb2EEyn
What all of that shows, however, is that their defensive system doesn’t depend on the quality of opposition, but on how they play, which is interesting to note.
Against Canada and Honduras, two teams that play more directly (Canada averaged 2.63 passes per possession against Mexico, while Honduras had 3.29 passes per possession in leg one but 1.63 in leg two), Mexico sat back without the ball, with the goal being to force them into those middle-third recoveries. By comparison, against a US team who wanted to build up more methodically, Mexico tried to press them into mistakes, mimicking Canada’s success in that regard from their September matchup.
How can Canada adjust?
Now, the big challenge for Canada will be to find a way to adjust their approach in this rematch, especially against a Mexico team that will be happy to adjust their game plan to frustrate them.
Firstly, they must find a way to be solid defensively. Against Mexico, they kept a clean sheet, but conceded 1.11 xG on 10 shots, with most of that xG coming in the second half. There, Mexico figured out they could cause problems by playing more directly, knowing that Canada’s press was causing them problems.
That’s reflected in the numbers, as Mexico averaged just 2.7 passes per possession against Canada, but had 3.05 against the US before having 5.41 and 5.06 across their Honduras matches. To further highlight that point, 21.91% of Mexico’s passes in that Canada friendly were long balls - that number was 12.54% against the US, and dropped to 9.89% in leg one against Honduras and 7.13% in leg two.
Because of that, look for Canada to adjust their press. No doubt, they’re going to press high, as it’s a crucial part of their defensive identity, but they might tweak the positioning of their defensive line to not get caught out over the top, or adjust their midfield group to ensure they’re better at winning first and second-balls when Mexico goes long.
Otherwise, a big point of emphasis will be the attack, something that Canada has continued to improve. At the time of the Mexico friendly, that was the sixth time in 10 games under Marsch that Canada had failed to score, but they’ve since scored six goals in their next three games.
Despite that, however, they want to be better in possession, finding a way to play the sort of swift, direct attacking moves that Marsch desires. Especially if Mexico is going to sit back and make the game choppy, Canada has to ensure they keep the ball moving quickly and swiftly, as the fouls don’t suit their game, with their best attacks coming whenever they break opposing lines to create transition moments.
ROAD TO THE FINALS 🏆
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) March 17, 2025
One Jacob Shaffelburg throwback goal is never enough... so here's the other goal he scored vs. Suriname in Leg 2 of this quarter-finals clash 😎
▶️ Canada 🇨🇦 vs. Mexico 🇲🇽 in the Concacaf Nations League finals on March 20th pic.twitter.com/M7pURk6X0o
If Mexico isn’t going to give away any cheap goals and transition moments in their build-up play as they try to bypass Canada’s press, which has been one of their biggest sources of goals under Marsch, Canada needs to find ways to generate goals from their own build-up play.
Unfortunately, in that last matchup against Mexico, they were unable to do that, leading to a quiet offensive game. As a result, keep an eye on them to adjust to that.
To that point, when looking at all of these areas, one thing to watch out for? How Canada deploys their midfield.
At the moment, Stephen Eustáquio looks set to start, per Marsch, but it’s unclear yet who will pair with him, as Ismaël Koné, Mathieu Choinière, Jonathan Osorio, and Niko Sigur are all options, with Koné and Choinière the favourites to do so.
Of those four, however, it’s worth noting that while Koné is a key option due to familiarity, Choinière due to his work rate, and Osorio due to his experience, Sigur could be a big wildcard. He’s got the defensive acumen to help Canada stay more compact and win second balls, but is good enough on the ball to help them play quicker.
By comparison, each of Koné, Choinière, and Osorio are more specialists on one side of the ball in Marsch’s system. They’d bring plenty of value in their respective roles, but Sigur’s all-around ability could give him an edge, which is interesting to note when you realize Marsch name-checked Sigur last week as a potential surprise starter.
For a Canadian team looking to adjust to how this Mexican team plays, he could offer a bit of something different, which could be the difference in what is expected to be a tough tactical battle.
