SCOUTING REPORT: What to expect as CanMNT kicks off Nations League trophy quest
The hunt for a trophy is heating up.
With the 2022-23 Concacaf Nations League set to wrap up this week, the Canadian men's national team heads into the semi-finals with big goals and aspirations, as they look to finally snap a 23-year silverware drought.
The first time since they lifted a trophy was all the way back at the 2000 Gold Cup. This is their best chance to end that trophyless run. It doesn’t get any simpler than what’s laid out for Canada over the next week, either: Win two games, and you're celebrating success in Las Vegas.
It won’t be easy, as they must first take care of a plucky Panama side in the semi-finals. Should they get the job done, it sets up a date with one of Concacaf powerhouses, the United States or Mexico, in a final. That’s a pretty daunting gauntlet, one with little margin for error, but before we get too ahead of ourselves, the focus must be firmly placed on Panama. That semi-finals on Thursday in Las Vegas should be a feisty battle given past clashes between these two teams over the last few years, which you can catch right here on OneSoccer, of course.
Here’s a look at what to expect from Panama in this game, as well as what Canada will need to do in order to counter.
In-form Panama looking to surprise
Just a few years ago, it felt like Panama had hit their ceiling as a team.
Having qualified for their first-ever World Cup back in 2018, it was a huge moment for their team, especially given how they booked their ticket to that tournament, only doing so on a winning goal in the 88th minute of their final match.
Three years ago today, #Sounders CB Román Torres scored this now legendary goal to put #Panama 🇵🇦 in the 2018 World Cup.
— Niko Moreno (@ELROLONW) October 10, 2020
Without a doubt one of the most unbelievable goals I've ever seen because of how it developed 🔥 pic.twitter.com/JJogWmCYAv
They then struggled mightily at that World Cup, as they lost all three of their games by a combined score of 11-2, but that didn’t faze this team, one that was just happy to be there. Instead, they celebrated each milestone as they came, such as when they scored their first-ever goal.
It didn’t matter that it came in the 78th minute of a clash against England, one they were already trailing 6-0 - for them, that was winning their World Cup.
But while they would’ve seen that tournament and thought it’d be the first of many to come, there was one big worry about their side - it was a far older and veteran-heavy group. With nine players over 30 at the time, that meant that a lot of those players were unlikely to feature going forward as Panama then turned their attention to the next cycle.
Especially as manager Hernán Darío Gómez moved on immediately after the World Cup, it felt like Panama needed a refresh in order to have a chance at qualifying for the 2022 World Cup.
To their credit, however, they’ve done well to refresh on the fly since then.
A big reason for that? The hiring of Spanish manager, Thomas Christiansen, who came into the fold in 2020 after interim manager Gary Stempel and subsequent manager Américo Gallego cycled through the team.
There, Christiansen had a big task on his hands, as he prepared his team to embark on their qualifying journey at the beginning of 2021, a process in which no one was expecting much from Panama.
Given that they’d only picked up three of 12 points in their Nations League A group in 2019, and only made it to the quarter-final of the 2019 Gold Cup, it felt like they’d quietly fallen down the pecking order in Concacaf after the high of the 2018 World Cup qualification.
Since Christiansen’s hire, however, he’s quickly changed that notion. Immediately, they managed to get through the first two rounds of qualifiers, flying through leg one before doing what they needed to do to get past Curaçao in round two.
Then, in the third and final round, they got off to a very strong start, picking up five points in their first three games, and 14 in their first eight, which included wins over the US, Jamaica, Honduras and El Salvador.
Panama defeat USA in World Cup Qualifying. Just look what it means 👏🇵🇦 pic.twitter.com/zJepk582zG
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 11, 2021
If not for a late surge from Costa Rica, who woke up and ‘Keylor Navas’d their way to a top-four spot, Panama nearly nabbed an intercontinental playoff spot, and could’ve easily automatically qualified for the World Cup given how tight the top-four race was (just three points separated first and fourth at the end).
Plus, instead of getting demoralized by how things ended, they rolled up their sleeves and dove right into Nations League. There, they got revenge on Costa Rica, topping a group with the Ticos and Martinique with 10 points, doing so off the back of wins against Costa Rica both home and away (with a final road day win booking their spot in the final).
As a result, they enter this tournament in good form, and are a team to watch in Concacaf ahead of the 2026 World Cup qualifying cycle.
With a refreshed squad, they enter this Nations League with a squad that includes 13 players between the ages of 23 and 30, sitting very much as a team that is built for this upcoming World Cup qualifying cycle.
In fact, that’s only further reflected in the fact that they’ve only got two players born in 2000 or later, highlighting the impact of their roster retool.
And no better way to continue that than by having a strong showing at the Nations League finals, before carrying that momentum into the Gold Cup (which they’ll want revenge at after being eliminated in the group stages of the 2021 tournament), allowing them to leap headfirst into World Cup qualifiers next year.
¡Ellos son los elegidos para representar a @fepafut en las Finales de la Nations League! 🏆
— Concacaf Nations League (@CNationsLeague) June 7, 2023
🔗 https://t.co/rfjo8cPkXi pic.twitter.com/W2DMw4nExa
Panama’s tactical versatility a huge asset
Furthermore, Panama’s retool isn’t just signified in the shift from an older squad to one more in its prime, either - it's reflected tactically, too.
Known for being a more defensive team before, one that aimed to frustrate their opponents by sitting behind the ball before breaking forward, they’ve tweaked their identity under Christiansen.
Now, he’s drilled Panama into more of a side that’s far more comfortable on the ball when not playing directly, while still maintaining a lot of those similar defensive principles that made them successful before.
Panama have one foot in the CONCACAF Nations League finals thanks to this stellar finish from Jose Fajardo. 🇵🇦 pic.twitter.com/REABuP8R4Z
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) March 29, 2023
Off the ball, Panama looks to limit space in midfield by playing a double pivot, which serves as the heartbeat for their defensive shape, which is usually a 4-4-2 or a 5-4-1.
There, the goal is simple - stay compact in that shape, and avoid getting stretched out, allowing them to frustrate teams in central and wide areas.
In particular, midfielders such as Anibál Godoy, Adalberto Carrasquilla, Cristian Martínez or Jovani Welch have figured in that double pivot over the past few games, and would likely be pegged to start against Canada.
Along with a strong collection of defenders, led by Cesar Blackman, Harold Cummings, Eric Davis and Michael Murillo, with the dependable Luis Mejía in goal, that makes up an overall solid defensive unit.
From there, they transform into a much more fluid unit on the ball if direct counter-attacking threats don’t materialize in wide areas, led by Yoel Bárcenas, who is the team’s main creative outlet in possession. Usually wearing the #10 shirt for Panama, he plays on the wing off the ball, but takes over a free role when his team wins it back.
Then, he’ll look to combine with both his midfielders and his forwards, with Carrasquillia in midfield likely to prove key in the build-up given how much he does on the ball for the Houston Dynamo. From there, they look to funnel the ball out wide, where Panama does well to cycle all sorts of crosses into their attackers and midfielders, with the cutback being a preferred avenue for success.
Así llegan los Canaleros a las finales! 🇵🇦 pic.twitter.com/ym2kTG76xO
— Concacaf Nations League (@CNationsLeague) June 11, 2023
As for those up front, Cecilio Waterman looks likeliest to lead the line, and will probably do so alone, with other option José Fajardo suspended for this match after picking up a red card in Panama’s final Nations League match against Costa Rica (after scoring the winning goal earlier in the match).
Otherwise, Ismael Díaz could be another intriguing name to keep an eye on, as he’s a wide player who plays his club soccer in Ecuador, and could fill in up front or out wide given the absences of attackers like Fajardo and Alberto Quintero (who also picked up two yellow cards in the group stages).
What will Canada need to maximize?
Canada will need to find a way to get by the Panamanian midfield pivot, either by trying to create numerical superiorities in that area of the park or by bypassing it altogether.
From there, they’ll need to find a way to not let Panama get too comfortable in possession, especially in those central areas in midfield. In particular, Canada will need to be diligent about Panama’s transition threat, seeing that one would likely expect Panama to cede possession to Canada in this game.
Especially given Canada’s struggles at breaking down low blocks, compared to how proficient they are on the counter, one would likely expect Panama to sit a bit deeper. Given that they tried to play aggressively against Canada in World Cup qualifiers on the road, which led to Canada beating them 4-1 off the back of several goals that came in transition, it’d make a lot of sense for them to make that tweak.
Therefore, look for Canada’s wing backs to be very diligent if they stick with the 3-5-2 they used in the last window, or for Canada to prepare for Panama’s wide threat by straight up going for a 4-4-2. The latter would hurt them a bit in midfield, but given Panama’s preference to play in a midfield pivot themselves, could also work for Canada.
Otherwise, in the attack, Canada will need to try and get their strikers, Jonathan David and Cyle Larin, to combine in and around the penalty area. If Canada can break Panama’s midfield line and provide them service, there could be room to catch their defenders on their turn, especially if Canada’s wide players help stretch the field with their speed and creativity.
Ultimately, when considering all of that, look for Canada to likely line up in a set-up like this, which can both double as a flexible 3-5-2 or 4-4-2, with the former being preferred on the ball, and the latter being used off it.
In particular, Alphonso Davies would be crucial to this set-up, as he’d have to be diligent in ensuring he gets into defensive positions given Panama’s threat in wide areas, while still looking to combine going forward.
Given that he’s battling an injury, however, should he not yet match fit, Sam Adekugbe could also fill in that role quite seamlessly, as well as Richie Laryea.
Elsewhere, the midfield would also be tipped to play a big role, especially someone like Hoilett, who could help stretch Panama’s midfield pivot if he can find space between the lines. Should he be able to do that, it’d free up all sorts of space for Eustáquio and Koné, who have proven to be quite adept at progressing the balls in different ways, as they showed in the last window.
Lastly, Canada will need their centre backs to be diligent with wide balls, which has been an area of concern, and is why someone like Derek Cornelius’s absence with a hamstring injury will be heavily felt given his aerial prowess.
If they can take care of those details, though, while sticking to their usual tactical philosophies such as the domination of wide areas and positional flexibility, that would go a long way towards their ability to get through to the finals against the US or Mexico.
