SCOUTING REPORT: What should the CanMNT expect from Guatemala in Gold Cup QFs?
It wasn’t as straightforward a process as they would’ve hoped, but the CanMNT did what they needed to top their Gold Cup group, setting up a date with Guatemala in the quarter-finals on Sunday.
After opening their Gold Cup with a 6-0 win vs. Honduras, one that cemented Canada’s status as one of the tournament’s favourites, it was tough sledding for Les Rouges after that, as they drew Curaçao 1-1 in their second game before narrowly grinding a 2-0 win vs. El Salvador in their group stage finale on Tuesday.
Despite that, they were able to top their group with seven points, the first time they’d won their group at this tournament since 2009, allowing them to reach the knockout stage for their fifth straight Gold Cup.
Now, however, after using the group stage as an opportunity to experiment with their squad, with those three matches serving as more of an audition for certain players, the stakes will change for Canada in the knockout stage.
The Gold Cup knockout stage is set! 🏆
— Gold Cup (@GoldCup) June 25, 2025
📰 https://t.co/PlXXiHC3Ua pic.twitter.com/snFMtsEx42
Armed with a simple goal - winning their first Gold Cup and major trophy since 2000 - they’ll be expected to do what it takes to fulfill that objective. Because of that, it’ll be expected that they bring out a strong lineup for this Guatemala match, allowing them to reach the semi-finals for just the second time in their last nine Gold Cups.
No doubt, however, that a stiff test awaits them in this Guatemala team. Despite being drawn in a competitive Group C, Guatemala qualified in second place with two wins, as they beat Jamaica 1-0 and Guadeloupe 3-2, falling 1-0 to eventual group winners Panama in their lone defeat.
Yet, that’ll be the story of the rest of this Gold Cup for Canada - they’ll have to battle to earn that trophy. They got a taste of what that’ll look like in the group stage, Honduras win aside, and will have to continue that going forward.
With that in mind, here’s what to expect from Guatemala, and how Canada will look to prepare for that.
What to make of Guatemala’s emergence?
To begin, it’s worth noting that this tournament represents a bit of history for Guatemala, who have reached the knockout stage in consecutive Gold Cups for the first time since the modern iteration of this tournament launched in 1991.
After making it to the knockout rounds of the 2023 tournament, they’ll feel well-positioned to build off that tournament, which saw them reach the knockout stage for the first time since 2011.
Yet, that 2023 Gold Cup proved to be the start of a breakout for Guatemala, who have turned things around drastically after a rough period that even at one point saw them barred from qualifying for this tournament in 2017 and 2019 as they dealt with a suspension from FIFA.
Since the end of that suspension in 2018, however, Guatemala has slowly been building. The good momentum started during qualifiers for the 2022 World Cup, as they won three and drew one of their four first-round qualifiers, but missed out on the second round on a tiebreaker, as they had one goal less than Curaçao.
Meanwhile, in Nations League play, after starting in League C in 2019-2020, they achieved back-to-back promotions to get to League A in time for 2023-2024, and they’ve stayed there ever since.
Then, in the Gold Cup, they marked their return to the Gold Cup in 2021 with a middling performance, drawing one game and losing two others, but that set the table nicely for them to shine in 2023, where they beat Guadeloupe and Cuba and drew Canada to top their group before they fell 1-0 to Jamaica in the quarter-finals
Because of that, this 2025 Gold Cup has been a bit of a continuation of all that for them, as seen by their victories over Jamaica and Guadeloupe, as well as their strong showing vs. Panama despite losing.
¡Qué maravilla de Rubio Rubin! 🤩 pic.twitter.com/jOzBKdb0NO
— Gold Cup (@GoldCup) June 25, 2025
Now, Guatemala has eyes on the semi-finals, a stage they’ve reached just once at the Gold Cup since 1991, which came in 1996, where they finished fourth.
It won’t be easy against a Canadian team loaded with talent, but Guatemala has gotten used to playing teams of that calibre over the past few years. For example, since the 2023 Gold Cup, they’ve drawn Panama and Costa Rica in the Nations League, drew Venezuela in a friendly, and held their own in friendlies vs. Ecuador and Argentina.
Along with their play in World Cup qualifying, where they’ve reached the third and final round, it’s been a good stretch for Los Chapines.
No doubt, their big goal is qualifying for the World Cup, something they’ve never done before. Having come closest to doing so ahead of the 2006 World Cup, where they finished five points behind an automatic qualifying place and two points behind the intercontinental playoffs spot (a spot occupied by Trinidad & Tobago, who ended up qualifying for the World Cup after beating Bahrain in their playoff), they’ll use the painful memories of that run to try and get over the line.
Yet, this Gold Cup could serve as good preparation for that. Beating a team like Canada would be a strong sign of intent, given that Les Rouges are about to participate in their second straight World Cup, this time as co-hosts, so look for Guatemala to surprise with a shock victory.
¡𝗝𝗨𝗡𝗧𝗢𝗦 𝗚𝗨𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗠𝗔𝗟𝗔!🇬🇹
— FFG🇬🇹 (@fedefut_oficial) June 25, 2025
Juntos Guatemala clasifica a cuartos de final de Copa Oro.
💪🇬🇹💙⚽️ #VamosGuate #ModoSelección pic.twitter.com/mr5oDZtZWw
What to expect from Guatemala vs. Canada?
If Guatemala were to find that victory, however, what should Canada expect from them in this semi-final?
Based on what this Gold Cup has shown, the answer is going to be stingy, defensive play, with Guatemala likely to sit back in a 4-2-3-1 that could end up looking a lot more like a 4-4-2 off the ball.
Given that they’ve averaged just 39.15% of possession across their three Gold Cup games, with the 44% they held against Jamaica the highest percentage of the ball they held in those matches, it gives an idea of what their approach has been so far.
— Gold Cup (@GoldCup) June 25, 2025
To their credit, it’s been successful, although they haven’t been as airtight defensively as they’d have liked, Jamaica match aside. After holding Jamaica to just 0.84 xG on 15 shots, as they did a good job of protecting their box in a clean sheet, Panama had 2.08 xG on 18 shots, and Guadeloupe had 1.4 xG on 10 shots, as those teams scored one and two goals, respectively.
For what it’s worth, Guatemala has continued to defend their net relatively well despite those numbers, as the shots they’ve allowed have come from an average of 19.36 yards, with no opponent yet to bring that number below 19 yards in their matches vs. them.
Where they’ve conceded their three goals, however, has been off one penalty, one nice curling effort from just inside the box, and a finish from near the edge of the six-yard box off a low cross, as they’ve been broken down a few times despite that defensive solidity. That’s not surprising to see, however, given their low possession figures and the shot volume they’ve allowed (14.33 shots), as it’s only natural they’d eventually break after spending most of the game absorbing pressure, even if they’re handling that pressure quite well.
Meanwhile, up the pitch, they’ve had less than stellar results offensively. They’ve been okay, scoring four goals - one of them coming from the penalty spot and the other three all coming from open play - but they haven’t exactly been the most proficient chance creation team.
That’s shown in the fact that they’ve averaged just 1.19 xG per game, coming on only 8.33 shots - and that’s with the penalty they scored factored in. Not only that, but their average shot distance is over 20 yards, showing their struggles at getting close to their opponents' box.
For what it’s worth, they’ve been very dangerous on corners, turning almost 40% of those set-pieces into shots, which isn’t bad at all - look for them to use that to their advantage vs. Canada.
Otherwise, however, given their status as a low-event team offensively, look for them to try and keep things solid defensively, as that’ll be their best path forward against this Canadian side, which they learned in their 0-0 draw in 2023.
In terms of their squad, Guatemala has a few interesting names to watch. Aaron Herrera is the big one, as the 28-year-old MLS veteran at D.C. United will be quite familiar with these Canadian players, many of whom he’s either played against or with, while striker Rubio Méndez Rubín is a USL Championship striker with the Charleston Battery who has MLS experience and a good strike rate for Guatemala (11 goals in 30 caps). Along with forward Olger Escobar, who is with CF Montréal, and defender Nicolás Samayoa, who is with Romanian side Politehnica Iași, those are a couple of players to watch who play outside of Guatemala.
To that last point, 18 players in this squad play in their home country, including nine of the ten most capped players, so that’s a real strength of the team, as they’ve got that familiarity and chemistry together. On a young team that has 13 players 25 or younger, and just three players 30 or older, that’s a big asset, as this is a group that is built to grow together in the years to come.
Lastly, one thing to watch out for in this match, however, is that a key player is going to be missing, as Guatemala’s main goalkeeper, Nicholas Hagen of the Columbus Crew, has been ruled out of this match with an injury, which is a huge blow. Having accumulated 47 caps for Guatemala, the next best option has just two caps, and that’s Kenderson Navarro, with Guatemala’s third goalkeeper, Luis Morán, having yet to earn a cap, so Navarro’s going to have to step up in a big way in this game.
With that in mind, here’s a look at what Guatemala might look like for this match, as they’ll likely run with a familiar group given the task at hand. 
How should Canada respond?
Seeing all of that, what should we expect from Canada?
For what it’s worth, this sort of matchup is very similar to what Canada dealt with in the group stage, as they held more possession in all three of their games, sitting with an average of 61.04% so far.
To their credit, they’ve been pretty dangerous with that possession, generating an average of 1.83 xG on 11.67 shots per game, but it’s worth noting that a large chunk of that came in a 6-0 drubbing of Honduras in their Gold Cup opener, in which they had over 3 xG and 17 shots.
In their two games since, they came down to earth a bit more offensively, scoring three times, generating 0.98 xG vs. Curaçao and 1.3 xG vs El Salvador, doing so on just six and 12 shots, respectively.
Yet, that’s been the big thing to watch with Canada - they’ve mostly struggled to break down low blocks as of late, which is why this Guatemala test is so fascinating, as they’ll have to spend most of the game trying to break down their opponents once again.
GOAL 🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 25, 2025
The #CanMNT find their breakthrough! Jonathan David makes up for his missed penalty with a tidy finish to open the scoring 🎯
🔴 Watch LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/FJgYQRvOTG
They won’t mind that, as they’ve continued to be quite good defensively, conceding just one goal in three games this Gold Cup, conceding an average of 0.75 xG on just 4.67 shots per game, but they’ll need to be much more dangerous in attack.
Plus, for as good as they’ve been defensively, allowing just 5.77 passes per defensive action, they’ve also conceded shots from an average of 14.63 yards, so it’s not as if they’re completely protecting their box, either. What that PPDA stat shows, however, is that their press has been effective at forcing teams to play much more directly - but that has still yielded some joy to their opponents, as seen on the lone goal they conceded, which came vs. Curaçao, coming on a bit of direct play
Then, offensively, Canada is generating shots from a distance of just 16.67 yards, which, while decent, feels high given how much they’ve had the ball and been on the front-foot in games. Especially when you consider that their average shot distance was just over 13 vs. Honduras before ballooning to around 18 yards in the matches vs. Curaçao and El Salvador, it shows that they haven’t been getting into the dangerous areas of the box as much as they’d like, the Honduras match aside.
Yet, that’s the big challenge for this Canadian team in this quarter-final - to break open Guatemala’s defensive solidity with a high-flying offensive performance.
In possession, that’ll mean being more dangerous around the box - look for them to use the half spaces more - and to be more efficient with their crosses (they’ve completed just 15.9% of the 14.67 crosses they’ve averaged per game this Gold Cup), overall just using better movement to help them do those two things.
Much as has been the case through the other games, they won’t be able to rely on their press to score goals, as Guatemala will play directly, so Canada will need to break them down in possession whenever possible, hence the focus on that area of their game.
Then, also keep an eye on this team in attacking set-piece situations, as they had two goals and four shots from six free kicks and six corners in their first two games, before generating just one shot from 12 corners and five free kicks vs. El Salvador.
With how much they’re likely to hold onto the ball, they’ll be likely to win corners and free kicks (only Costa Rica has won more fouls, 47, than Canada’s 44), so they’ll get dead-ball opportunities - and converting them can be a good way to open the game up.
Yet, that’s the theme of the game for Canada - the pressure is on them to be the aggressor and score goals, as has been the case all tournament. For the most part, they’ve handled that pretty well, Curaçao draw aside, but they’ve felt they can hit another gear offensively, with the Honduras win being an example of what that could look like. 
Now’s the perfect time to start hitting that next level, so look for them to be ruthless and dangerous in attack, both in open play on set-pieces, while remaining airtight defensively (and perhaps even quietly cleaning a few small things up there, too).
With all of that in mind, here’s a look at how Canada might line up in this match, although it’s worth noting that Jesse Marsch faces a lot of tough decisions in picking a team. Having rotated his squad heavily through all three games, that’s allowed several different players to step up, and they’ll all be hoping to play a key role in this game, with some of them forced to settle for minutes from the bench. 
For example, what does Marsch do in midfield, where Mathieu Choinière, Nathan Saliba and Ismaël Koné are battling for minutes, while Niko Sigur is coming off a good midfield showing vs. El Salvador? One option would be to play one of them out wide, as he did with Jonathan Osorio in the Nations League semi-finals, which could actually be a good fit for Koné or Saliba, given their abilities on the ball. Plus, with Canada playing a low-block, that might be a way to get some added creativity on the bench, while saving someone like Jacob Shaffelburg for a late-game cameo to break things open if needed.
Then, up front, Marsch faces endless questions as he ponders which of Promise David, Tani Oluwaseyi, Cyle Larin and Daniel Jebbison to pair up front, with Oluwaseyi probably carrying a slight edge after the group stage, one that could quickly change with a P. David goal off the bench, for example.
Funnily enough, Canada's backline might be the easiest to pick, despite injuries at that position, as their play vs. El Salvador cemented that Alistair Johnston, Luc De Fougerolles, Derek Cornelius and Richie Laryea will likely be the starting back four, with the only possible change being the insertion of Sigur, who feels like a must-start somewhere on the pitch.
Overall, though, given that Canada is dealing with a few key absences, with Ali Ahmed and Jonathan Osorio ruled out due to injuries, and Stephen Eustáquio unlikely to return despite FC Porto’s early exit from the Club World Cup, it’s a good sign of their growing depth that those absences don’t loom too large when picking this team.
Yet, that’s been the theme of this tournament for Canada, one in which they were missing Alphonso Davies, Moïse Bombito, Sam Adekugbe and Eustáquio heading into it, and they’ll look to continue that ‘next player up’ mentality through the rest of the tournament, starting with this quarter-final, knowing that a tasty semi-final against either the US or Costa Rica looms if they can win it.
All numbers via WyScout.
