SCOUTING REPORT: Everything you NEED to know about the CanMNT's Copa America group | Presented by Degree
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For the first time in their history, the Canadian men's national team is getting set to participate at the famed Copa América this summer, having booked their spot as one of six guest Concacaf nations who will join CONMEBOL’s 10 member countries at their marquee continental competition, which will be held in the United States this year.
Coming as part of Concacaf and CONMEBOL’s new strategic partnership – which looks to increase collaboration between the two regions – this tournament will look to emulate the success of the 2016 Copa América Centenario, which was also held in the United States to celebrate the tournament’s 100th anniversary.
That tournament had a similar format to this one, as six Concacaf nations were invited to join... but Canada wasn’t among that group, having missed out on qualifying after a poor showing at the 2015 Gold Cup.
This time around, however, Canada wasn’t going to let a chance like this slip away. And, while they had a scare in the process as they fell to Jamaica in the quarter-finals of the Concacaf Nations League – which served as the first qualifier for four of the spots – they quickly redeemed themselves by beating Trinidad & Tobago in a one-game Copa América playoff to earn one of the final two spots.
With that, they can now tackle one of the biggest tasks in their history. A prestigious tournament, one only behind the World Cup and on par with the European Championships in the international men’s soccer landscape, this is a test unlike much that Canada has seen before.
Given that Conmebol is known as one of the most competitive regions in the world, due to the immense talent and fierce competitive nature that exists in South America, this tournament is one of the toughest to win, which is why eight of the 10 teams have won it, with Ecuador and Venezuela the only two yet to lift that crown. Favourites can quickly be rendered mortal while underdogs can thrive, provided they have the right spirit and mentality to tackle the challenge of winning in this region.
Yet, this shows why this test is so key for Canada. Still in the chase of their first-ever World Cup win, which they’ll look to accomplish at the 2026 World Cup, which they’ll co-host, this tournament will provide them with an excellent dress rehearsal for that, as they’ll play some elite competition while getting a taste of the mentality that top teams need to win trophies.
As they chase that first World Cup win and various other goals, such as snapping their trophy drought and becoming a top 25 nation, this experience will be invaluable to help them reach that, giving Canada a glimpse into what they’ll need to do over the next few years to hit those goals.
With that in mind, here’s a look at everything you need to know about Canada’s participation in this tournament, in our preview.
What's the Copa América format look like?
To begin, it’s worth diving into the format for this tournament, as it’s one of the big ways this will serve as a World Cup test run, given that it uses a similar group stage and knockout format.
Typically, the Copa América format has changed from edition to edition depending on their numbers. In 2021, they only had their 10 CONMEBOL nations participate, so they did a format that saw them split those teams into two groups of five, with the top four from each group advancing to the quarter-finals and then doing a knockout format from there.
Then, in 2019, they had three groups of four as they invited Japan and Qatar as guest nations to make it 12 teams in the tournament, doing a similar knockout format from the quarter-finals onward with the top two teams in each group along with two third-place teams.
This year, with there being 16 teams, however, they’re bringing back the format they used in 2016 when they had similar numbers. Having split the teams into four groups of four, the top two teams from each group will advance to the quarter-finals.
Big games, big stars, big lights β¨
— CONMEBOL Copa América™οΈ ENG (@copaamerica_ENG) February 28, 2024
The biggest blockbuster coming to your shores this summer! ποΈβ½οΈ#RockingTheContinent pic.twitter.com/XNcb0WBb6x
There, the top team in Group A will play the second-place team in Group B while the top team in Group B will play the second-place team in Group A, with the winners of those two matches meeting in the semi-final, and the same occurring between the first and second-place teams in Group C and Group D on the other side for the quarter-finals and semi-finals.
That’s important to note, as it means that teams in Group A and B will only face each other until the semi-finals, and ditto with those in Group C and D, which means teams like Argentina (Group A) and Brazil (Group D), who met in the 2021 final, can only meet again in this year’s final (or third place match).
It’s a unique format quirk, but one that’s important to note for Canada, as it made the overall draw quite relevant, given that it narrows down the opponents in a team’s potential path to the final.
Looking at the groups:
Speaking of the draw, here’s a quick look at how that went down last December. 
To begin, there’s Canada’s group, Group A, which contains the defending Copa América and World Cup champions, Argentina, as well as 2015 and 2016 Copa América champions, Chile, and 2019 finalists Peru.
Group B has some heavy Concacaf flavour led by Mexico and Jamaica, who are joined by the two CONMEBOL sides both looking for their first win and final appearance at this tournament in Ecuador and Venezuela.
Meanwhile, Group C also has some strong Concacaf flavour with the US and Panama joining 15-time Copa América winners Uruguay, along with an always plucky Bolivia side.
Then that leaves Group D, which is heavier on CONMEBOL flair, with 2019 Copa América winners and 2021 finalists Brazil joined by two-time winners Paraguay, one-time winner Colombia and Concacaf’s Costa Rica in a tough group.
Canada’s Group A quest:
When looking at Canada’s group, there’s a lot to take in from who they’ve been drawn with. Of course, Argentina stands out right away - led by Lionel Messi, who is nearing the end of his distinguished international career but doesn’t look like slowing down anytime soon, this Argentina team has done well to build a group around their superstar that plays to its strengths and limits its weaknesses.
And it's now official, the #CanMNT will play at this summer's Copa América
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) March 23, 2024
They can now finally slot in Group A with Argentinaπ¦π·, Peruπ΅πͺ and Chileπ¨π±, headlined by an opening day clash with the defending World Cup and CA champions, π¦π·
Huge, huge opportunity for this program now
Then, Chile and Peru are typically two tough sides that don’t give any teams an easy time, so even though both are on the wrong side of strong generations, with Chile sitting as one of the best in South America in the mid-2010s, while Peru caught fire at the end of that decade into the beginning of this one, they remain teams that won’t be easy to beat.
Yet, for Canada, it’s an ideal group. Right now, their biggest challenge is becoming a side that can beat top teams outside of Concacaf, and these are the sort of games where they can test themselves and get closer to that objective. Because of that, it felt like their goal in the draw was actually to be pitted against an Argentina or Brazil-level team, before rounding off their group with more Conmebol opposition, albeit not of that level, to test themselves against teams from a different region.
This group is a perfect mix of that, as they will face the best team in the world right now by most objective metrics, before facing off against two CONMEBOL sides who they can realistically compete with, giving them a fair chance of making it out of their group.
Instead of a group of death, or a group of life, they got a good mix of that, instead. Plus, by getting three battle-tested CONMEBOL teams, they’re also going to get a taste of the sort of intangibles that make CONMEBOL a tough region to compete in, too.
No doubt, this will be a tough group to get out of, but Canada will welcome that pressure, knowing how good these tests will be for them.
Here’s a closer look at the three teams.
Argentina:
(FIFA Ranking #1/Elo Ranking #1)
Best Copa América finish: 1st (1921, 1925, 1927, 1929, 1937, 1941, 1945, 1946, 1947, 1955, 1957, 1959, 1991, 1993, 2021)
2021 Copa América finish: 1st
Coach: Lionel Scaloni
Squad:
π¦π· The final chosen ones for the πͺπππ π¨ππΜππππ ππππ! π#ArgentinaNT pic.twitter.com/jtPMnOlHIR
— Selección Argentina in English (@AFASeleccionEN) June 15, 2024
To begin, Argentina aren’t just the favourites to top this group, but are also favourites to win the whole tournament, as the co-winningest team in Copa América history looks to win back-to-back trophies for the first time since they won the 1991 and 1993 editions.
As a result, it’s hard to imagine scenarios where they don’t make those goals a reality this summer.
A look at their team shows why that’s the case. Led by head coach Lionel Scaloni, who has been in charge since 2018, leading them to their 2021 Copa América, 2022 Finalissima and 2022 World Cup titles, they’ve got a deep group, including several who played big roles in those three triumphs.
Of course, Messi leads the way in that regard, and the 36-year-old isn’t expected to slow down anytime soon. Still able to score and create at an elite level despite his age, he’s the heartbeat of this team, with every aspect of the side built to cater to his needs as a player.
For example, in midfield, he’s surrounded by workhorses like Rodrigo De Paul (30), Leandro Paredes (29) and Giovani Lo Celso (28), who make up for Messi’s style of play, which doesn’t involve a whole lot of running on both sides of the ball. Along with creative players such as Enzo Fernández (23) and Alexis Mac Allister (25), Argentina’s midfield is arguably the heartbeat of this team, given how important they are on both sides of the ball.
Up front, though, they’re no slouches, either - Lautaro Martínez (26) was one of the best strikers in Europe for Inter Milan in 2023-2024 and brings goals and work rate to the front line, Julian Alvárez (24) is an extremely creative forward who can both score goals and create them, while Angél Di María (36) still has a knack for scoring big goals. Then, Alejandro Garnacho (19) is a wild card, as he’s coming off a breakout season for Manchester United, and can break games open if needed, joining fellow depth forwards Valentín Carboni (19) and Nicólas González (26) as players Scaloni can turn to in a pinch.
Then, at the back, Argentina’s got a unique mix of skill and character, led by one of the biggest characters in the game, goalkeeper Emiliano Mártinez (31), who's on-pitch antics and personality makes him one of the game’s biggest entertainers - and he’s no slouch in goal, either. Similarly, Cristian Romero (26) occupies a similar position at centre back, sitting as one of the best defenders of the world while equally loving a tough tackle (which can cause tons of bookings), which can be quite the combination to behold. Similarly, the veteran Nicólas Otamendi (36), Nicolás Tagliafico (31) and Marcos Acuña (32) all fit this mould, as do the younger Lisandro Martínez (26), Gonzalo Montiel (27) and Nahuel Molina (26), although it’s unsure who will join Romero at the back.
In terms of a style of play, Scaloni typically employs a 4-3-3 or a 4-4-2, depending on how he wants Messi to line up and how much width he aims to have, with Messi usually either occupying one of the winger spots in the 4-3-3 or one of the two striker spots in the 4-4-2. From there, Argentina looks to hold onto the ball and can hurt teams in many ways, as they’re good in possession, dangerous on the counter-attack and pretty lethal on set-pieces. In particular, that last point is one to watch, as Messi’s ability to score free kicks and deliver quality service gives Argentina a massive edge in that category, especially given the targets he can aim at, with Romero being quite proficient, in particular.
At the same time, they’re also very solid defensively, comfortable in sitting back and getting behind the ball, which is what makes them so tough to beat, as they know how to hurt teams in both boxes.
Yet, there’s a reason why they’ve only lost two games since they fell to Brazil at the 2019 Copa América (a loss to Saudi Arabia in the opener of the 2022 World Cup, and a loss to Uruguay in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers last fall), and their ruthless execution in both boxes is a huge reason for that.
Along with their desire to win, as they’re often willing to battle for results even if it means rolling up their sleeves and getting gritty, that’s why they’re so dangerous, as they’ve got the skill to dominate teams on top of that, which is never an easy combination to deal with.
Projected XI:
Peru:
(FIFA Ranking #32/Elo Ranking #32)
Best Copa América finish: #1 (1939, 1975)
2021 Copa América finish: #4
Coach: Jorge Fossati
Squad:
π£οΈ ππ¨π¬ ππ₯ππ π’ππ¨π¬ πππ₯ π©π«π¨πππ¬π¨π« π π¨π¬π¬πππ’
— La Bicolor (@SeleccionPeru) June 16, 2024
Estamos listos para representar a #LaBicolor π΅πͺ en Estados Unidos. #UnSentimientoQueNosUne pic.twitter.com/hKNPXUUwmi
Might we be seeing the end of a golden Peru generation? A slow start to the 2026 World Cup qualifiers seemed to indicate that might be the case, which led them to sack manager Juan Reynoso just over a year after his arrival in 2022.
He always had a tough task, to be fair, which was to follow up the work of Ricardo Gareca, who led Peru to the 2018 World Cup, a penalty shootout away from reaching the 2022 World Cup, and to second-place (2019), third-place (2015) and fourth-place finishes (2021) in three of his four Copa Américas.
As a result, Reynoso was replaced by Jorge Fossati, who was named head coach at the end of 2023.
So far, Fossati’s been tasked with turning over an aging Peruvian side, many of whom might be set to play in their final Copa América. With six players over 34 in their pre-tournament squad and 12 players over 30, this is a veteran team that brings all sorts of experience to the table.
Because of that, expect several of those key veteran figures of the last few years to play a big role.
That starts with Pedro Gallese (34) in goal, and then at centre back with Carlos Zambrano (34), Alexander Callens (32) and Anderson Santamaría (32). Then, in midfield, Christian Cueva (32) remains a big piece, while in the attack the ageless Paolo Guerrero (40) leads a group that includes Gianluca Lapadula (34), André Carrillo (33) and Edison Flores (30). In particular, Lapadula is a key piece up front, while Gallese is expected to hold down the fort with some big performances in goal.
Yet, they’ve also got some younger players in their prime to watch out for, too. At the back, Luis Abram (28) and Marcos Lopez (24) will play a big role at centre back and wing back, respectively, Wilder Cartagena (29) could step up in midfield with the absence of Renato Tapia, while Joao Grimaldo (21) is the youngest name in the team despite already having six caps up front.
Intriguingly, the big thing to watch, however, will be Fossati’s system, as he’s tweaked things significantly since his arrival. Having mainly played in a four-at-the-back system under Gareca, Fossati has tweaked things to employ a back three, having used a 3-5-2 in his four games in charge. For a team armed with lots of centre backs, wing backs, midfielders and forwards, but not a lot of natural wingers, it’s a move that has made sense, especially defensively, but that sort of tweak can often take time to take hold.
So far, they haven’t been tested much, with their first matches under Fossati coming against Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic, before they played Paraguay and El Salvador this camp. In that limited sample size, they’ve done well to hold the ball, and have been excellent defensively, although they’ve mostly been a bit quiet offensively from a chance generation standpoint, even if their most recent match against El Salvador saw them take a big step forward in that department.
As that takes shape, however, expect them to want to hold possession and generate chances more that way instead of on the counter-attack, using the overloads created by their new formation to their advantage. Along with strength on set pieces, those will be areas they’ll look to quickly take hold under their new manager.
Otherwise, look for their chemistry to play a big role in this tournament. Even at their best, Peru wasn’t a team known for their individual talent, doing well when they played as a group, which they’ll look to return to under Fossati. On paper, they enter this tournament with the fourth-lowest Transfermarkt value, sitting with the lowest in this group, yet there’s no reason why they can’t get out of this group and go on another run if they play to their potential, with their strength being in the collective.
Projected XI:
Chile:
(FIFA Ranking #42/Elo Ranking #39)
Best Copa América finish: #1 (2015, 2016)
2021 Copa América finish: Quarter-finals
Coach: Ricardo Gareca
Squad:
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— Selección Chilena (@LaRoja) June 13, 2024
Los 2οΈβ£6οΈβ£ seleccionados por Ricardo Gareca para representar a #LaRoja π¨π± en la CONMEBOL Copa América USA 2024™οΈ #SomosLaRoja pic.twitter.com/pNjW8HDzwo
It’s hard to think of many better two-year runs in international soccer than Chile’s in 2015 and 2016, as they put together a stretch that will live forever in Copa América lore.
In 2015, they had a run for the ages while hosting the tournament, defeating Ecuador, Bolivia, Uruguay, Peru and then Argentina on penalties in the final to win their first-ever Copa América. Given they were facing an Argentina side in the final led by a Messi who had just won the treble with Barcelona and was about to win his 5th Ballon D’Or at 28, it was a remarkable feat.
Yet, they didn’t have much time to back up that feat, as the tournament’s 100th anniversary was the next year, which led to the special Copa América Centenario in the US, meaning they had to defend their title the next year. To their credit, however, that didn’t bother them - they beat Bolivia, Panama, Mexico and Colombia en route to the final, where they beat that same Argentina side on penalties (after losing to them in the group stages) once again.
Since then, it’s been a less than ideal eight years for Chile - they failed to make the 2018 and 2022 World Cup, finished in fourth place at the 2019 Copa América and then in 7th place in the 2021 tournament, failing to live up those highs from the 2015 and 2016 tournaments.
At the same time, they won’t mind that - those 2015 and 2016 wins will forever live in history in the country.
Now, however, they want to add to that history, and have shown that with how they’ve prepared for this tournament. Having struggled to start 2026 World Cup qualifiers under manager Eduardo Berizzo, they sacked him last fall, leading them to bring in Ricardo Gareca, who has all sorts of experience in South American club football along with his stint with Peru.
So far, Garcea has been a good fit for this Chilean side, as well - they recently went toe-to-toe with France in an entertaining 3-2 loss in March, and then dominated Paraguay in a 3-0 pre-Copa América friendly earlier this month.
Armed with an intriguing task, which was to refresh the side who had won in 2015 and 2016 with new faces, he’s so far appeared to do that, with his squad for the Paraguay matchup containing 10 players 30 and older, as well as 10 who were 26 or younger.
Yet, that’s only part of the challenge he faces - he must also try and get the most out of a team whose many of their top contributors are in that group 30 and older. When looking across their roster, that’s a big thing that stands out right away.
That starts at the back, as Claudio Bravo (41) is Chile’s captain and is expected to still start in goal after making nearly a dozen appearances for Real Betis this season, while right back Mauricio Isla (36) remains a key figure. They’ve freshened things around them, with Guillermo Maripán (30), Paulo Díaz (29), Gabriel Suazo (26), Benjamín Kuscevic (28), Matías Catalan (31) and Igor Lichnovsky (30) all options to start, with Maripán, Díaz and Suazo the favourites to figure alongside Isla to begin the tournament.
In midfield, the team is even younger, as Marcelino Núñez (24) has become a key piece in the middle, and will likely start alongside Erick Pulgar (30), with Darío Osorio (20) and César Pérez (21) both also looking to earn minutes with just eight and three caps to their name, respectively.
Up front, however, the group is once again led by a strong veteran influence, as Alexis Sánchez (35), who leads Chile all-time with 163 caps and 51 goals, will lead that group as either a #10 or a striker, joined by Eduardo Vargas (34), who would likely pair with Sánchez up front. At the same time, there are also some intriguing younger options to keep an eye on - Ben Brereton Diaz (25) could stand out after a strong 2021 Copa América, while Victor Dávila (26) could play a role out wide.
In terms of Garceca’s style of play, he’s mostly employed a 4-2-3-1 since arriving at this team, one similar to what he often used with Peru, with the idea being to be comfortable without the ball, having averaged just under 45% of possession since his arrival. From there, they’ll look to be dangerous in possession and in transition, thanks to names who can play between the lines like Sánchez and those who can stretch the field in Brereton Diaz.
Otherwise, they’ll also look to bring lots of physicality to the table. When they were at their best, they were a frustrating team to play against, not afraid to mix it up, and that will be something they’ll want to employ, especially if they’re not going to have the ball as much.
And, as Gareca did with Peru, look for them to make the most of their collective identity to win them games. That was what they did well when they won those back-to-back Copa América’s, and will look to return to that identity under their new manager.
Projected XI:
Canada:
(FIFA Ranking #49/Elo Ranking #40)
Best Copa América finish: N/A
2021 Copa América finish: N/A
Coach: Jesse Marsch
Squad:
Our #CANMNT Copa América squad is HERE!
— CANMNT (@CANMNT_Official) June 15, 2024
The 26 who will lead us into battleβοΈ
Presented by @CIBC
——
Notre sélection pour la Copa América est ICI !
Les 26 joueurs qui nous mèneront au combat βοΈ
Présenté par @CIBC
*Joel Waterman has since replaced the injured Junior Hoilett
And last, but certainly not least, that leaves Canada, who are looking to make the most of their first participation at this tournament.
Having pulled out of participation at the 2001 Copa América, before missing out on qualification to the 2016 Copa América, the third time's the charm for this Canadian team to reach this tournament when they beat Trinidad & Tobago earlier this year.
Now, they enter this tournament ready to make some noise. Armed with a young group, with just two players over the age of 30, and 15 players who are 25 or under, this is a group that is pushing to do big things in the future.
Primarily, their main goal is simple - make some noise at the 2026 World Cup, where they’ll make their third participation, this time as co-hosts. As a result, to best prepare for that, they recently brought in head coach Jesse Marsch to lead the side ahead of this tournament, giving this young group a manager who will want to push them to their potential over the next few years.
This tournament is seen as a key chance for them to do that, giving them valuable experience to do something they haven’t done much of over the years - play the best teams in the world in a competitive environment.
When looking at this team, the big thing that stands out is their talent at the top. Alphonso Davies (23) leads the way in that regard, as the former World XI left back is among the best in the world at his position, having won it all at Bayern Munich. Along with Lille’s Jonathan David (24), who is seen as one of the best young strikers in the world, that gives Canada a one-two punch of talent that can go up against most teams in the world.
After that, however, Canada is looking for new players to step up and bigger roles, which they’ve slowly started to see over the years. Porto’s Stephen Eustáquio (27) is a huge piece in midfield and is arguably Canada’s most important player given what he does on both sides of the ball, while Tajon Buchanan (25) has a knack for big moments, which earned him a move to Inter Milan this past winter.
Elsewhere, Ismaël Koné (22) seems primed to have a massive tournament in midfield, as his mix of skills, physical profile and style of play could make him attractive to big clubs after a solid first full season at Watford, while Moïse Bombito (24) is a late-bloomer who could surprise many with his strong play at centre back, armed with a unique mix of speed, size and passing ability. Bombito is joined by Derek Cornelius (26), and Alistair Johnston (25), who make up the core of Canada’s rebuilt backline under Marsch.
In goal, Maxime Crépeau (30) is expected to start and will look to have a big tournament, as he gets the reins in goal after waiting a long time to take over from his predecessor Milan Borjan.
In terms of style of play, Marsch has had Canada playing in a 4-2-2-2, with the goal being to press while remaining compact out of possession, picking and choosing when to be aggressive and then defending more passively, depending on the opponent and where the ball is. From there, they want to push the ball forward in possession, playing direct and vertically, but they can also play with the ball in possession, although they do struggle sometimes to break teams down when doing so.
For a team armed with a lot of speed, they’ll hope to use that in transition, in particular, which is why Marsch’s appointment was met with a lot of excitement, given his desire to weaponize those skills. At the same time, the big thing to watch will be their defence, as they’re looking to defend more aggressively, which is a risk for a team that has struggled to produce the same level of defenders as they have attackers. The rise of players like Bombito and Cornelius helps, and they showed that in recent friendlies against the Netherlands and France, but there’ll be a lot of eyes on them to step up, along with Crépeau in goal.
Now, the big thing Canada will look to bring back to this tournament is their togetherness and good vibes, which were a staple of much of the last five years when John Herdman was coach. When they were at their best, they played with a smile and were willing to fight for each other, and they’ll look to refind that similar mentality under Marsch while pushing to gain more of a killer instinct in big games.
Projected XI:
What could Canada’s Copa América journey look like?
Now, the interesting thing to see will be if Canada can pull off the remarkable, and that’s to reach the knockout stages of this tournament.
At the same time, they’ve been put in a favourable position to do so, at least compared to the alternative.
Of course, Argentina sits as their toughest challenge, and for good reason - they’ll be tough to even get a point off of. But after that, Canada will feel confident they can go toe-to-toe with Peru and Chile.
Certainly, Peru and Chile have them beat in experience, which is valuable, but Canada has the talent now to go up against them, and it’s worth noting all three are similar in the Elo ratings, which are often a good judge of how a team has been doing as of late - Peru is 32nd in the world, Chile is 39th and Canada is 40th, showing they’re all not far from each other.
Jesse Marsch is looking forward to a busy month of June as #CanMNT head coach:
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) May 13, 2024
"I wouldn't have it any other way. I think for our team to develop and grow, you have to play in the best games and against the best opponents, to really understand what the level is all about."
Comparatively, Canada could’ve been drawn with Colombia (5th in the Elo ratings), Uruguay (8th) or Ecuador (14th) instead of Peru out of pot two, showing that they were quite fortunate there. They rank similarly to all of the pot three teams, so Chile is similar to the alternative options Venezuela (32), Paraguay (42) and Panama (43), but avoiding the dangerous pot two teams were key.
Often, for a pot four team, you can be at the mercy of the draw, and Canada were able to avoid too much trouble by getting a group where they could realistically look at second in the group and be confident they could push for it - that would’ve been unlikely if they had a group with Argentina and one of Uruguay, Colombia or Ecuador, say.
Then, should Canada make the knockout rounds, it’s worth noting that their side of the bracket is much lighter, as Colombia, Uruguay, Brazil and the US are all on the other side, which could lead to some tough quarter-final matchups on that side, especially given the former three are all top 10 in the elo ratings. Meanwhile, Canada’s side contains a lighter bracket with the exception of Argentina, who are the only top 10 team in the elo ratings on their side, with Ecuador (14), Mexico (21) and Peru (32) the next best three
Because of that, while Canada will be focused on winning at least one game and just trying to make it out of the group in the first place, they’ll know that a run isn’t impossible, even if it’s improbable. 
Canada's expectations this summer:
While Canada has a lot going for them on paper that could allow them to make a run, from a favourable group and knockout draw, to the presence of some of the most talented players in this tournament (Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil and Canada are the only teams with two or more players in the top 25 of the list of the most valuable players at this Copa América), it’s hard to suggest they could finish in the top four in this tournament despite that.
As seen over the last few years, while they’ve been a side that has flirted with becoming a top team, they haven’t been able to take that step, as it’s a different beast to go from competing with the best to beating the best. They certainly showed that at the 2022 World Cup, for example, where they were unable to turn a dominant showing against Belgium into what would’ve been a tournament-altering win.
At the same time, they’ve got the potential to be a team that can beat the best more often than they have in the past, but they’re yet to harness it.
And that’ll be the big goal of Canada’s new manager, Jesse Marsch, who has been brought in to push Canada into that elite group of teams. As he’s talked about at length, he sees a lot of potential in this group, but knows that lots of work is still needed, which is what he’s focused on since he’s taken over. 
So far, he’s managed to push them closer to that ideal, as a recent 0-0 draw with France showed, but his work is far from done.
Because of that, the goal for Canada in this tournament will be to show that they can be more ruthless in games. It’s hard to suggest Canada should think “knockout rounds or bust”, but they should aim to win at least one game, giving themselves a shot of reaching the knockouts.
To put that sentiment on a wider scale, failing to win a game would be disappointing, winning a game would be seen as a good showing, getting out of their group would be great, and reaching the semi-finals would be excellent.
Ultimately, the goal of this tournament is to test Canada ahead of the 2026 World Cup, where they’ll have a goal of reaching the Round of 16 or quarter-finals, and the best way for them to prepare for that is to go out and push for a knockout spot in this tournament.
But as they do that, it’ll be important to keep perspective on their goals, which will see them focus on winning a game first and then going from there.
