SCOUTING REPORT: Everything you need to know about the CanWNT's Olympic journey as they look to defend gold
The climb begins once again.
Three years ago, the Canadian Women’s National Team reached a key peak, earning their first-ever major tournament victory by winning the gold medal at the 2021 Tokyo Summer Olympics. That’s proven to be not just one of the biggest footballing-related achievements in this country's history, but one of the biggest sporting achievements, period, one that will carry great importance for decades to come.
Now, however, a large core of that same gold-medal winning group is back at another Olympics, this time hosted in Paris later this month, where the goal is simple - to defend that title.
It won’t be easy. One of the toughest tournaments in the world, the women’s Olympics tournament is a true gauntlet of a competition - with just 12 teams, all of high quality, there aren’t many easy matches at the Olympics, especially in the knockout rounds.
Not only that, but some key pieces have departed or retired from this Canadian side since the gold medal. Pillars of the program such as Christine Sinclair, Sophie Schmidt and Stephanie Labbe have all retired from international duty (and in Labbe’s case, from playing professionally altogether), which will make for a strange sight when Canada takes the field without that trio in this tournament, given that they became legends with their play at the Olympics.
At the same time, Canada’s equipped with a strong squad, a large chunk of whom played pretty massive roles in Tokyo.
Coming off a lacklustre 2023 World Cup in Australia and New Zealand, where Canada crashed and burned in the group stage, unable to build off their success of 2021, this tournament will be massive for Canada, as the pressure will be on for them to make a deep run.
A side that tends to thrive at the Olympics, medalling at three straight tournaments (earning bronze in 2012 and 2016 before their 2021 gold), they’ll look to once again prove that they have what it takes to reach the podium.
As they’ll know from their World Cup experience, it’s different to play in a major tournament once you’ve proven that you claim a big honour - teams will give you their best game, eager to dethrone a favourite, a status Canada will carry into this tournament.
Because of that, look for Canada to prove they learned some key lessons from last year, and channel it into another special run, one that can unite a nation again.
It's worth noting they face a tall task in doing that last point now, as they enter this tournament with controversy surrounding them, as they had two staff members kicked out after being caught spying on New Zealand's training with a drone, with more punishment still to potentially come, but the players will look to put that behind them and focus on getting down to business on the pitch.
On that note, here’s everything you need to know about Canada’s journey at the Olympics, along with a scouting report on themselves and their first three opponents in France.
(This preview was written before Canada's drone scandal).
Diving into the Olympic format:
To start, it’s important to understand the format of this tournament, giving an idea of what Canada needs to do to reach another final.
First, it’s worth noting that the Olympics are much smaller than the World Cup, as just 12 teams are participating - comparatively, the 2023 World Cup had 32 teams.
Depending on one’s perspective, that can make the Olympics easier or harder.
For those who might argue it’s harder, the smaller format makes it harder to avoid playing good teams, with each match usually a tough one. By comparison, the bigger format of the World Cup opens the room for the bigger teams to be spread out across different groups, making it likelier that most get some easier competition and that they almost all make it to the knockout stages.
The draw for both tournaments highlights the difference - with the smaller tournament, two Olympic groups were guaranteed to have three top 12 teams (per the FIFA Rankings), with one of those two groups having three top 10 teams. At the World Cup, however, there were no more than two top-12 teams in any given group, and three of the groups only had one top-12 team.
On the flip side, for those who’d argue the World Cup is tougher, it’s worth noting the depth of the World Cup pool, as a lot of talented teams from the 2023 World Cup failed to qualify for the Olympics. Especially with there being no more than two spots per continent for the Olympics (along with the host slot), that left some good European, North American, South American, Asian and African teams at home.
For example, the 2023 World Cup runner-up, England, failed to qualify for this tournament as Great Britain, while 2023 semi-finalists and defending Olympic silver medallists Sweden also missed out. Then, there are teams like Morocco and South Korea, who famously made it out of their group ahead of Germany at that World Cup, but who are both missing from this tournament (ironically Germany has made it).
Ultimately, the reality is both tournaments are difficult for different reasons, though, and it’ll be important that Canada is prepared for the obstacles this tournament provides.
Notably, one of those is the squads, as teams have been allowed anywhere from 23 to 26 players at World Cups (it was the latter at the 2022 Men’s World Cup, the former at the recent 2023 Women’s World Cup), whereas at the Olympics, coaches are allowed just 18 and four alternates. To be fair, the rules look to have been amended to allow more flexibility with how those alternates are used, but the squads are still smaller at 22, which isn’t technically a full 22.
It looks like there is a change in the rules for the reserves players at the Olympics. Herve Renard said in his press conference that injured players replaced by a reserve were now allowed to come back later in the tournament. https://t.co/NQyoZV1blw pic.twitter.com/IuvJPkpaKW
— Sylvain Jamet (@S_Jamet) July 8, 2024
Another one is the quicker turnaround between games. At the World Cup, Canada typically played every five to six days, but they’ll now have to play every two days at the Olympics, with their first three games being played across six days.
Otherwise, the format itself is worth noting, too, as the 12 teams have been split into three groups of four.
Within that, the top two teams in each group, along with the top two third-place finishers, will reach the quarter-finals. From there, the rest of the tournament will be single-knockout, with extra time and penalties if necessary, with there being gold, silver and bronze medals handed out, meaning there is a gold medal game along with a bronze medal game for the four semi-finalists.
For Canada, this tournament format benefits them massively, as they’ll likely only need one win to get out of their group, thanks to the possibility of having third-place teams who can qualify. From there, they’ll feel they’re built for knockout soccer, as they showed at the last Olympics, something they’ll look to replicate once again. 
Assessing the groups:
In terms of the groups, however, those were drawn earlier this year, and it’s worth noting that Canada ended up in an intriguing group.
Drawn in Group A, Canada will play the hosts, France, along with Colombia and New Zealand, in what is seen as one of the easier groups on paper based on the FIFA Rankings.
Official: The #CanWNT/#CanXNT have been drawn into Group A for the 2024 Olympics
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) March 20, 2024
Their group is as follows:
France๐ซ๐ท
Colombia๐จ๐ด
Canada๐จ๐ฆ
New Zealand๐ณ๐ฟ
Tough test with the hosts๐ซ๐ท, while๐จ๐ด is also a good and new challenge, and ๐ณ๐ฟ is a familiar foe
Pretty good draw for ๐จ๐ฆ!
At the same time, that ranking might prove to be deceptive, as France will have a huge boost as hosts, Colombia was one of the biggest surprises with the run they made to the quarter-finals at the 2023 World Cup and are quickly rising, while New Zealand had a positive showing as co-hosts in 2023 that narrowly saw them miss out on the knockout stages on goal difference, which is something they’ll build off.
For what it’s worth, it’s worth noting that most Olympic groups are quite tough, and a look at the other two backs that sentiment up.
In Group B, the US, Germany, Australia and Zambia make up a very competitive group, while Group C looks to be the “Group of Death” with Spain, Japan, Brazil and Nigeria.
๐ซ๐ท๐จ๐ด๐จ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฟ
— FIFA Women's World Cup (@FIFAWWC) April 10, 2024
๐บ๐ธ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฆ๐บ
๐ช๐ธ๐ฏ๐ต๐ณ๐ฌ๐ง๐ท
The #Paris2024 groups are officially locked in! ๐
Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some big upsets in the group stages, as some top teams could fail to reach the quarter-finals.
Because of that, it’ll be intriguing to see how Canada does in their group, and if they can qualify for the knockout stages for the fifth straight edition, where they’ll believe they can push for another medal.
What awaits Canada in Group A?
Speaking of Canada’s group, however, here’s a closer look at what to expect from the four Group A sides in this tournament.
France:
(FIFA Ranking #2)
Best Olympics finish: Fourth Place (2012)
Best World Cup finish: Fourth Place (2011)
2021 Olympics finish: Did Not Qualify
Coach: Hervé Renard
Squad:
๐๐ฎ ๐น๐ถ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ข ! ๐ซ๐ท
— Equipe de France Féminine (@equipedefranceF) July 8, 2024
Le groupe d’@Herve_Renard_HR est désormais complet pour les Jeux Olympiques de @Paris2024 ๐
RDV le 25 juillet pour notre premier match ๐#BleuCollectif pic.twitter.com/cZUbgOyd7K
It’s become an Olympic tradition for this Canadian team - playing the hosts in hostile territory. In 2008 and 2021, they were drawn with hosts, China and Japan, respectively, and faced Great Britain in the quarter-finals of the 2012 tournament and Brazil in the third-place match of the 2016 tournament, meaning this will be a fifth straight Olympics in which they’ll play the hosts in some fashion. (Canada has a record of 2W-2D-0L in those games).
Unlike in 2021, though, when Canada faced Japan in their Olympic opener, they’ll have the chance to play a game before meeting France, who they’ll play on matchday #2, meaning they’ll avoid some of the fanfare that comes with playing in a tournament opener.
No doubt, though, this France team will be Canada’s toughest test of the group stages, and for good reason, as France are one of the favourites to win this tournament.
They’ve proven that over the last few months, too, as they’ve come together nicely under head coach Hervé Renard, who was hired ahead of last year’s World Cup. Regarded as an excellent international manager, having won men’s African Cup of Nations titles with Zambia and Ivory Coast in the 2010s, while famously helping Saudi Arabia upset eventual World Cup champions Argentina at the 2022 Men’s World Cup, his hiring was seen as a big coup for this French side.
One who has a history of underperforming at major tournaments despite having some strong squads, yet to reach a major final, it’s felt that they’re in about as good of a position as ever to push to reach the top two at a major event.
Having done well to reach the quarter-finals of the 2023 World Cup, where they only fell on a lengthy penalty shootout to hosts, Australia, they’ve only lost three of the 15 competitive matches they’ve played since - a 2-0 defeat to defending World Cup winners Spain in the UEFA Nations League final (which was their first-ever competitive final), a 2-1 loss to England in a Euro 2025 qualifying match, and a 3-1 defeat to Ireland in another Euro qualifier.
Other than that, they’ve won 11 and drawn one of the other 12 games they’ve played, with wins over Germany in the Nations League semi-finals, along with victories over Sweden (twice) and England in Euro qualifying, being their biggest highlights.
In particular, they’ve been excellent defensively, conceding just 11 goals over that span, with the Ireland loss the only time they’ve conceded more than two goals in a match. Not only that, but they’ve been quite solid offensively, too, scoring 24 goals in 15 games, getting shut out just twice across that span.
Yet, that’s not surprising, as they’ve got a squad of impact players at various positions, and have a good mix of youth and experience, with five players above the age of 30 and six players 26 or under, with the rest in the prime ages of 27 to 29. Armed with a hefty presence of Lyon and PSG players (five apiece), giving them a strong base of players playing within France at two of the best clubs in the world, that gives them plenty of firepower to lean on.
In terms of the veterans to watch, Juventus’s Pauline Peyraud-Magnin (32) is likely to start in goal for France, while Lyon’s eight-time Champions League-winning Wendie Renard (34) will captain the side at centre back.
Then, moving up the pitch, the duo of Utah Royals midfielder Amandine Henry (34) and Lyon forward Eugénie Le Sommer (35) will look to bring their wealth of experience amassed across nearly 300 caps for France (192 for Le Sommer and 106 for Henry). In particular, Le Sommer will be someone to watch up front, as she’s France’s all-time leading scorer with 93 goals, although she’s likely to be more of a supersub in this tournament.
Otherwise, however, the big names to watch are those who enter this tournament in their prime, as several of them have become key pieces for this French side over the years. At the back, PSG’s Griedge Mbock Bathy (29) has been excellent when fit over the past few years, while her club teammate. Sakina Karchaoui (28) is seen as one of the best full backs in the world. Meanwhile, another PSG player is midfielder Grace Geyoro (27), who is a key piece in the middle of the park for this French side, while a pair of Lyon attackers, Delphine Cascarino (27) and Kadidiatou Diani (29), will play a big role out wide.
Elsewhere, there are a couple of younger players worth watching.
First, Selma Bacha (23) will show why she’s become such a key piece for Lyon over the last few years, while Marie-Antoinette Katoto (25) is one of the best strikers in the world and has scored 30 goals in just 41 France caps, and will be hungry to feature in her first major tournament after not being selected for the 2019 World Cup and then missing out on the 2023 World Cup due to an injury. Along with Sandy Baltimore (24), those three are expected to step up over the next few years as the veterans age out and the prime-aged players start to reach their 30s.
Tactically, Renard has deployed this French side in either a 4-4-2 or a 4-1-4-1 depending on if he wants to load up in the attack or midfield, although the 4-1-4-1 has been the preferred set-up as of late, especially in bigger games. In terms of a style of play, Renard teams tend to be aggressive defensively, not scared to push up, limit space and win the ball high up the field, while playing vertically without the ball, although this French side has been pretty comfortable in possession.
Otherwise, the big thing to watch is set-pieces, as Becha is one of the best crossers of the ball in the world, while Renard’s one of the best headers (she has 38 goals for France and over 150 professional goals, mostly off set-pieces), and Renard’s not the only target France has on those set-pieces.
Overall, it feels like a lot is in France’s favour as they get set to host this tournament, showing why they look to be favourites, something they’ll look to prove later this month.
Armed with a talented group and the sort of cohesion past France teams have lacked, this certainly feels like one of their best chances in a generation to earn some silverware, and anything but a medal will feel like a disappointment.
Projected XI:
Colombia:
(FIFA Ranking #22)
Best Olympics finish: Group Stage (2012, 2016)
Best World Cup finish: Quarter-Finals (2023)
2021 Olympics finish: Did Not Qualify
Coach: Ángelo Marsiglia
Squad:
¡๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐! ๐
— Selección Colombia (@FCFSeleccionCol) July 5, 2024
Presentamos ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ a los ๐ฑ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ถ๐๐ฬ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ท๐๐๐ฬ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ซ๐ท
๐ https://t.co/X42kHh6sGT@OlimpicoCol #LaFemeninaNosUne ๐จ๐ด#TodosSomosColombia ๐จ๐ด pic.twitter.com/nEhssBD8Wq
Can Colombia make another surprise run at a tournament?
They certainly feel poised to be a dark horse heading into these Olympics, having impressed on their run to the quarter-finals of the 2023 World Cup, which included a statement upset over Germany in the group stages before narrowly falling 2-1 to England in that quarter-final.
Now, the key will be to build off that, as they’ve slowed down a bit since. Invited to participate in the inaugural W Gold Cup this year, they lost in the quarter-finals, although they were unlucky with the draw as they fell to the hosts and eventual winners of that tournament, the US.
Having parted ways with the coach that helped them achieve that World Cup quarter-final berth, Nelson Abadia, replacing him with Ángelo Marsiglia, they’ll look to recapture some of that similar magic.
Their form has been mixed since that World Cup, as they’ve won seven, drawn four and lost three of their 14 games, with wins over Mexico and New Zealand in friendlies and a draw with Japan in another exhibition the big highlights.
No doubt, however, this team has the firepower to do some damage this tournament, and they’ll look to rely on that. Armed with a strong base of players playing in the Colombian league, nine of them to be exact (six in the 18 along with three alternates), they’ve done well to push more and more players to top European leagues and clubs.
Plus, with a younger squad, one consisting of eight players who are 23 or younger, they’re a team that is building for the future, doing well to insulate those youngsters with a good mix of veterans, as they’ve also got seven players over the age of 30.
Leading the way, though, are two young strikers playing at two top clubs, and that’s Linda Caicedo (19) of Real Madrid and Mayra Ramírez (25) of Chelsea.
Caicedo, who’s the youngest player on this team, scored two goals at the World Cup and earned the “Golden Girl '' trophy given to the top U21 women’s player in Europe for her play with Colombia and at Real Madrid, making her a breakout candidate for this tournament. Meanwhile, Ramírez is a prolific scorer at the club level who earned a then-record transfer to Chelsea this winter after shining for Levante in Spain, and is looking to shift that confidence over to Colombia, where she’s not been as prolific offensively as Caicedo despite having more experience (Caicedo has three more goals than Ramírez in five fewer caps).
Otherwise, Catalina Pérez (29) of Werder Bremen will lead the way in goal, and she’s got the support of some experienced players at the back in Daniela Caracas (27) of Espanyol, Manuela Vanegas (23) of Real Sociedad, Carolina Arias (33) of América de Cali and Daniela Arias (29) of Corinthians.
Meanwhile, in midfield, expect captain Daniela Montoya (33) and Leicy Santos (28) to hold it down, while Catalina Usme (34) could be a valuable supersub up front given that she’s the program’s all-time leading scorer with 51 goals.
Tactically, Colombia tend to prefer a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3, with Ramirez likely to lead the line and Caicedo in more of a free role on the wing. In terms of style, they don’t mind holding onto the ball and creating in possession as much as they do hitting on the counter, but they do their best work off the ball, doing well to frustrate teams defensively, which indicates their best path at success against a side like Canada will be to hit them on the counter-attack and to use their speed.
Especially with players like Caicedo and Ramirez who create decisive actions with their attacking skills, that’ll give them a shot in any match, as those are the sort of game-breakers you need to have a shot in these kinds of tournaments, which someone like Caicedo showed at the World Cup.
Projected XI:
New Zealand:
(FIFA Ranking #28)
Best Olympics finish: Quarter-Finals (2012)
Best World Cup finish: Group Stage (1991, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023)
2021 Olympics finish: Group Stage
Coach: Michael Mayne
Squad:
The 18 women's players who will represent @TheNZTeam at @Paris2024 have been named with 10 going to the @Olympics for the first time ๐ณ๐ฟ
— New Zealand Football ๐ณ๐ฟ (@NZ_Football) July 3, 2024
Read more at https://t.co/uNkbmGfKuf
It was a tournament of fine margins for New Zealand at the last World Cup, as despite winning and drawing a game in the group stage to give them four points, tied with Norway (who they beat in their opener), they failed to qualify on goal difference.
Yet, it was a good sign for New Zealand, who are looking to reach the knockout stages of the Olympics for just the second time in their history, having made the quarter-finals in 2012.
Given that they made history in 2023, getting their first-ever World Cup win, they'll want to build on that, this time under new manager Michael Mayne.
If he's to do that, however, he'll need some key progress from a young group. With 12 players 25 or younger in this squad, including seven players 23 or younger, and just four players 30 or older, this New Zealand side is building for the future as they aim to capitalize off the momentum of co-hosting that 2023 World Cup.
Seeing that they've moved on some key veterans since then, having brought 8 players 30 or older to that tournament, that’s a big sign of what’s to come from the Football Ferns.
Because of that, keep an eye on some of those younger players, as many of them have done well to push to good clubs while earning caps for New Zealand.
In goal, the pair of Victoria Esson (23) of Rangers and Anna Leat (23) of Aston Villa, have split the net as of late, making it intriguing to see who starts, with Leat carrying the edge in that race.
Moving up the pitch, Ally Green (25), Mackenzie Barry (23) and Kate Taylor (20) have all worked their way in the defensive rotation, while Katie Kitching (25), Malia Steinmetz (25), Grace Jale (25) and Macey Fraser (22) are the main options in midfield.
Up front, that leaves Jacqui Hand (25), Gabi Rennie (23), Indiah-Paige Riley (22) and Milly Clegg (18) as key options. In particular, Riley and Clegg are names to watch - Riley has six goals in 24 caps and plays for Dutch side PSV, while Clegg already has pro experience and is signed to NWSL outfit Louisville despite her young age.
Despite those younger names, however, there are still some veterans who might play a key role in this tournament, and interestingly, they’re both defenders. Those are Rebekah Stott (31) and Katie Bowen (30), who are the only two on this team with more than 100 caps and could be relied upon to help New Zealand defensively.
In terms of a playstyle, New Zealand have enjoyed primarily using a 4-4-2, doing well to defend aggressively and passively depending on the game. Interestingly, they’ve also grown a lot in their possession game, doing most of their attacking that way in recent matches, although they had some strong moments in transition at the World Cup.
No doubt, however, their success in this group will start with their defensive game, as they’ve been a pretty low-event team in terms of chance generation, but also chance suppression, meaning they don’t mind keeping things quiet defensively before trying to be clinical with the chances they might get.
That might be a hard game plan for a young team to execute, but they can use that youth to their advantage in other ways this tournament, especially with the quicker turnarounds between games, which could give them an edge if they get out of the group.
Projected XI:
Canada:
(FIFA Ranking #8)
Best Olympics finish: Gold Medal (2021)
Best World Cup finish: Fourth Place (2003)
2021 Olympics finish: Gold Medal (2021)
Coach: Bev Priestman
Squad:
Here's the #CanWNT/#CanXNT depth chart ahead of the Olympics after today's update
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) July 20, 2024
Alternates are in {}, while other positions are in ()
Positions of strength in outfield are WB, W+ST, while CM is more reinforced now. CB *should* be well-off
The big question is ๐จ๐ฆ's best XI pic.twitter.com/alVLs3W3cP
Lastly, that leaves Canada, who will face a lot of pressure as defending gold medallists.
Despite that, however, it’s worth noting that this Canadian team is in the middle of a generational shift, one sparked by the aforementioned retirements of Sinclair, Schmidt and Labbe.
Certainly, Sinclair is the big name that’ll be missed, given her status as the all-time leading international goalscorer with 190 goals, but it’s worth noting that Schmidt and Labbe were also key leaders on this team.
At the same time, it feels like Canada has been preparing for this. Their unique squad makeup shows that - despite having a surprisingly young team on paper, with just one player over 31, just five players above 30, and eight players 25 or younger, they’ve got a lot of experience with eight players sitting with 100 caps, and three others with 80 or more.
While they were sad to see some of the legends of the program depart, they’ve got players who have grown into key roles and are used to this sort of stage, too, with 18 of their 22 players they’ve called up having been on that gold medal team.
That starts in goal with Kailen Sheridan (29), who has stepped up excellently as the Labbe replacement, as she’s proven capable of winning games on her own. Then, at the back, the trio of Kadeisha Buchanan (28), Vanessa Gilles (28) and Jade Rose (21) feature some of the best centre backs in the world in Buchanan and Gilles, and one who looks likely to one day carry that designation in Rose, who is one of the four players without a gold medal in this side.
Moving up the pitch, Jessie Fleming (26) is the team’s heartbeat and captain in midfield, and is joined by intriguing names such as Quinn (28), Julia Grosso (23) and Simi Awujo (20). Same goes at wing back, where Ashley Lawrence (29) is the headliner, but Gabrielle Carle (25) and Jayde Riviere (23) could also be set to play key roles.
Then, up front, it’s expected that all six of Nichelle Prince (29), Cloe Lacasse (31), Adriana Leon (31), Jordyn Huitema (23), Janine Beckie (29) and Evelyne Viens (27) play a big role, with Leon, in particular, the one to watch given her recent form for Canada, while Lacasse will also be hungry given her status as one of those who wasn’t in that 2021 Olympic squad.
In terms of a style of play, Canada’s made a big shift as of late, going from a 4-2-3-1 to a 3-4-3 after their World Cup struggles, a move that has paid off nicely for this team. Given more flexibility on both sides of the ball, their possession play has improved massively, but they still have the strong defensive identity they’re known for, having won the Olympics off the back of it.
Otherwise, this Canadian team has the weapons to be dangerous on set-pieces, although they can struggle to produce consistent delivery, and they thrive when they get the ball into wide areas in the attack. Conversely, they can struggle at times to defend in transition, so they’ll need to be careful on the ball, as turnovers can be a big Achilles heel for them.
Overall, though, this team is set up nicely to compete. With a lot of key players either in their prime or about to hit it, and armed with the experience of the 2021 gold (and the benefit of there being only three years since it was played instead of four), Canada’s unique squad mix could be a huge benefit for them in a tournament that already suits their style of play.
Stylistically, they don’t match up the greatest to some of the other teams in this group, who do well to get behind the ball and hit in transition, but Canada has improved a lot in breaking down low blocks and will hope they can limit some of the mistakes that can hurt them against that sort of teams in the past.
From there, it feels like they’ll really thrive when the knockout stages hit, which was one of the biggest frustrations surrounding their 2023 World Cup struggles, as they didn’t get a chance to get to those sort of do-or-die games, which is where they seem to be at their best, something they’ll want to return to having played some of their biggest games in program history at past Olympics.
Projected XI:
What could Canada’s Olympic journey look like?
Now, a big thing to watch will be Canada’s potential journey to a gold medal, especially in terms of potential knockout stage matches.
There, the goal is simple - avoid a heavyweight quarter-final matchup. That would likely only happen for Canada if they finish third, as finishing first would pit them against a third-place finisher from Group B or C, while finishing second place would put them against whoever is second place from Group B (US, Germany, Australia or Zambia).
If they finish third, however, they’re guaranteed to play first from Group C, which is projected to be Spain, the runaway favourites of the tournament. For any team looking to medal, facing them in the quarter-finals is a tall task, one that might be too tough to overcome.
Of course, with the Olympics, you’re going to have to face some tough teams to win - in 2021, Canada had to beat the US in the semi-finals and Sweden in the final after having face the likes of Great Britain and Japan in the group stage and Brazil in the quarter-final - that’s a tough run of games.
At the same time, it’s ideal to face the true tournament heavyweights, in this case Spain, France and potentially the US or Germany if they catch form, later in the semi-finals or a final, where a loss is less catastrophic, reducing pressure. That puts a lot of onus on Canada to finish top two in their group, allowing them to avoid Spain, as even finishing second and facing the Group B runner-up isn’t too bad by comparison, as there’s a strong chance that whichever team they get that doesn’t win that group might be an out of form US or Germany side, or Australia and Zambia, two teams Canada will like their chances against.
Therefore, while Canada will be prepared for some heavyweight matchups, as they’ll need to play them if they want to compete for a gold medal, they’ll hope that other than their France group stage match, they can avoid the big ones until later, but that’ll only happen based on their group performances, where they’ll need to not just advance, but do so in style, too.
What are Canada’s expectations?
Finally, that leads to the key question that many will be wondering about this Canadian team - what are reasonable expectations for the team at this tournament? Of course, as gold medallists, the internal goal will be to repeat, but is Canada set up to do that?
Certainly, a gold medal doesn’t feel out of reach. Canada will have to prove they can beat the likes of France, Spain, Germany and the US, but that’s not anything they can’t do.
They’d likely be underdogs in those matchups, but that could favour Canada, who always seems to thrive with that mantle, as they’re always at their best when they’ve got a chip on their shoulder - something that they’ve constantly had at the past Olympics. 
Reasonably, reaching the semi-finals seems to be a good bar for Canada to set off the back of that, as that requires a solid group stage performance, and then a good win in the quarter-final. Ideally, reaching another final would be on the higher end of expectations, but another semi-final appearance would be a good barometer to use, as it would put them in medal contention, giving them a chance at a fifth straight medal.
Because of that, look for this Canadian side to at least give themselves a shot of doing that. From there, anything can happen, and they’ve certainly got the experience and pedigree to follow through on it, so watch out for them if they’re able to make that a reality later this month.
