PREVIEW: Who will WIN the 2024 TELUS Canadian Championship FINAL? 🇨🇦 | Presented by tonybet
Just over five months and 18 games after the Canadian Championship kicked off in Calgary with a battle between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC, the 2024 edition of the tournament comes to an end in British Columbia this week, as the Vancouver Whitecaps get set to host Toronto FC in the final at BC Place on Wednesday.
The sixth final between these two teams in this competition since it switched to a knockout format in 2011, this has been a matchup typically dominated by Toronto, who won the first four of those finals.
In the fifth final, however, Vancouver got the last laugh, defeating TFC in 2022 to win just their second Canadian Championship. Since then, the Whitecaps have been the team to beat in this competition, as they won a second straight tournament in 2023, and have been the favourites to make it a threepeat this year.
As for Toronto, they’ve seen this as a chance to re-find the form they once had in this competition, which they won seven times in a 10 year span from 2009 to 2018. Given that they’ve won just once since then, doing so in the abbreviated 2020 edition impacted by the pandemic, they’ve been out to prove they can get back to the dominance they showed in the 2010s.
Because of that, it’s expected to be an exciting matchup between two teams who have combined for their fair share of memorable games in this competition, especially when the Voyageurs Cup is on the line.
Ahead of then, here’s what you need to know about both teams as they get set for this final.
It’s all goes down on Wednesday!@TorontoFC and @WhitecapsFC battle for Canadian supremacy 🇨🇦🏆 #CanChamp pic.twitter.com/ox11P0Nku7
— Canada Soccer (@CanadaSoccerEN) September 23, 2024
Contrasting journeys since last final matchup:
When these two teams last met in this competition, both teams were in quite different situations.
On one side, there was Vancouver, who were looking to make a statement, eager to take the next step in their ascendancy by getting their hands on their first piece of silverware since 2015, when they had won their first and only Canadian Championship crown, which until 2022 was also the lone trophy they’d earned in their MLS-era.
Meanwhile, TFC was looking to add to their legacy in this competition, in the midst of a campaign that saw them add some key veterans as they looked to put a rough 2021 campaign behind them. Having finished second in MLS in 2020, they felt they weren’t far off the team they put out that season, which is why they invested in Designated Players Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernaredschi in 2022.
In that 2022 final, however, despite the presence of both Insigne and Bernardeschi, who had just arrived that summer, the Whitecaps' unheralded duo of DPs Ryan Gauld and Andrés Cubas stole the show as the Whitecaps won on penalties to claim their second crown. 
Since then, both sides have been on different paths.
Buoyed by that first taste of silverware, the Whitecaps built off it by repeating rather comfortably as champions in 2023, and have since become a top 10 side in MLS, one not far off pushing into the top five teams in the league. Currently sitting 10th in the Supporters Shield standings this season, they sit just five points behind fifth place, and will look to push for that milestone with a strong end to the year as they look to reach the playoffs for a second straight season.
Now, however, the next step for the Whitecaps is to make that step towards becoming an elite team, and there’s two ways for them to do that in the near-future - first, it’s to win this competition to complete their threepeat, and then it’s to make a deep run in the MLS Cup playoffs. Of those two goals, lifting the Canadian Championship seems like the bare minimum to achieve, and they know that, so look for them to take care of business to build some momentum as they prepare for a playoff push.
Meanwhile, TFC finished 27th in MLS in 2022 and 29th in 2023, failing to reach the Canadian Championship final last year, the first time since 2015 they weren’t in the final two of that competition.
This year, however, they’ve done well to turn things around in their first season under John Herdman, as the former Canadian Women’s and Men’s National Team boss has come in to help accelerate their rebuild. Given that they’ve already got 36 points this year, their highest total since 2020, they’ve been on the right track, as they remain within touching distance of a playoff spot.
It’ll take a strong end to the year to keep that spot, and they remain just five points ahead of the bottom five in MLS, but no matter what happens, it feels like it’s been a year of progress for them.
At the same time, they know how important winning this tournament could be for them, especially given their history as a club. A club that made it a habit to win trophies in the 2010s, they want to return to those days, and see this final as a chance to start doing that.
But that is why this final is so interesting. The script has flipped since these teams met in that 2022 final, where TFC were arguably the favourites and the Whitecaps were the underdogs, as was the case for much of the 2010s, making this final unique.
What to watch:
With that in mind, here’s a look at what to keep an eye out for on the pitch for both teams ahead of this final.
Interestingly, these two have already played each other this season, as the Whitecaps beat a shorthanded TFC 4-0 on April 6th - it’s expected this matchup is much closer, certainly given that TFC will be out for revenge from that match, so that’s something to keep in mind as they get set for this rematch.
TFC’s use of wide overloads and switches:
With Herdman’s arrival at TFC last year, it was going to be interesting to see how he planned to set up this side, one that struggled to both score goals and defend them last year, sitting last in MLS in goals for and second-last in goals against in 2023.
Would Herdman focus on tightening things at the back, or focus on the attack?
Certainly, it’s been a bit of both - TFC sit seventh-worst in goals for and goals against, which represents progress after 2023. In particular, their defensive play has taken the biggest step forward, as they’re a middle-of-the-pack team in xG against - by comparison, they sit near the bottom in xG for, although they’ve been helped offensively by their ability to score some incredible long shots.
Tactically, however, the big shift they’ve made is to switch to a 3-4-2-1, a favoured formation of Herdman’s with the CanMNT, given the flexibility it can give to a coach. In this case, Herdman has looked to use the 3-4-2-1 in possession, sometimes shifting to a 4-4-2 off the ball, putting a lot of emphasis on possessional play and being stout in defensive transitions.
Then, in the attack, their goal has been simple - use the skills of Federico Bernardeschi and Lorenzo Insigne out wide (along with Richie Laryea when he’s been healthy), employ Jonathan Osorio between the lines, and try to use that width to their advantage.
In particular, a big focus has been to constantly switch the point of attack - it’s not uncommon to see Insigne or Bernadeschi take the ball and send it flying across the pitch with sweeping long balls in search of the other. That’s reflected in the numbers, as per FBref, TFC are fifth in MLS in long pass attempts.
(Toronto FC's percentage of through passes in last five games via WyScout)
They’re not just a long passing team - they hold over 50% of the ball on average and are 10th in short pass attempts, but that big switch has often been a preferred weapon of choice for TFC to try and change the point of attack and open up space, helping create wide overloads.
Because of that, look for them to use that to their advantage, especially against a Whitecaps team that employs a back three defensively, which can open up space out wide. If TFC can stretch the field and create space in wide areas, that could be a key route of attack for them.
In their match against Vancouver in April, they struggled to find that space, as they generated just seven shots despite taking 28 touches in the box, as they got to the dangerous areas, but not with the speed required to open up space in the box.
Yet, that’s where the trio of Bernardeschi, Insigne and Richie Laryea will be key. Given that the latter two didn’t play in that Whitecaps matchup, TFC will feel they could’ve used them on the day. 
Bernardeschi has been very good this year, sitting with nine goals and eight assists in all competitions, and is the source of a lot of TFC’s offence down the right, but it helps him when he has the support of Insigne and Laryea on the left, as Insigne often drifts inside, opening up Laryea to overlap him.
From there, they’ll look to get the ball in the box, where Osorio is a big threat thanks to his ability to make dangerous late runs. Especially given that TFC have struggled to get consistent scoring up front, as Prince Owusu has been ice cold lately (although Canadian Deandre Kerr has heated up in recent weeks and should be primed to start), having that goalscoring threat from Osorio and other central midfielders is key.
Against a Whitecaps side that has been quite good defensively this year, TFC’s going to need to be sharp offensively to break them open, as that’ll give them a good shot of winning this final.
Projected XI:![J E5rzx M4]()
The importance of the Whitecaps press:
Speaking of the Whitecaps defence, a big area of focus for them this year has been their press, as it’s a big part of how they keep things tidy at the back
That’s allowed them to be more dangerous on both sides of the ball - they’ve conceded the seventh-fewest goals in MLS (and the seventh-fewest xG), but have also scored the 12th-most goals (on the 14th-most xG), with their transition game one of their best sources of offence.
Given that they sit bottom 10 in MLS with just an average of 47% of possession per game, that reflects what they aim to do as a team - they want to control the game with their work off the ball, and look to attack quickly and effectively when they win it back.
They’re not a team that constantly puts opponents under pressure and sends numbers charging up the field, but they know how to pick their spots depending on the opponent.
Because of that, they’ve mostly alternated through two formations this season, using a 3-4-3 and a 3-5-2. With the 3-4-3, they look to press high, and with the 3-5-2 they sit a little deeper and muck up the middle of the park.
Against TFC in April, they used the 3-4-3, and it worked perfectly, as they put TFC under pressure all night long, even creating one of their goals via the press.
Given that TFC likes to build up in a back three, one would expect the Whitecaps to use a similar 3-4-3 formation once again in this game, as they’ll look to limit space for TFC to play through them in the middle, forcing them to get the ball out wide. 
Especially given that TFC likes to hold the ball, this will benefit the Whitecaps, who have struggled at times in games where opponents have sat back a bit deeper and dared them to break them down.
Certainly, one would expect TFC to employ a similar approach without the ball, but the Whitecaps will hope they can counter that by creating some dangerous transition moments with their work defensively, knowing that TFC likes to play on the front foot.
Because of that, look for the Whitecaps to press, especially now that striker Brian White is back healthy, as he is a big part of the press along with Ryan Gauld. Along with Fafà Picault, they’ll be the team’s expected front three for this game.
And while most will look at their offensive stats this season and be impressed, as Gauld has 11 goals and 13 assists (all comps), White 13 goals and three assists (all comps) and Picault 10 goals and seven assists (all comps), make no mistake - the success of that trio has come from their ability to hurt teams in transition, led by the work they do off the ball. 
(The Whitecaps recoveries from their 4-0 win over Toronto FC, with Gauld being #25, White #24 and Picault #11, via WyScout)
Because of that, the Whitecaps' big goal in this game will be to dominate the transition game. The Whitecaps are good enough defensively that they should feel confident they keep things tight, but turning that defence into offence could prove to be the difference in what’s expected to be a cagey match.
That can be harder to do at home, however, which is probably why the Whitecaps have actually been better on the road than at home in MLS play (they’ve got 25 points on the road this season, 21 at home), but given that they’ve got a record of 6W-1D-2L in their last nine home games (all comps), they’ve found a good formula they can build off of at home lately.
Especially after winning the last two finals at home, they’ll like their chances of making it a threepeat, even if this version of the Whitecaps has done their best work away from the confines of BC Place.
Projected XI:
