PREVIEW: What can the CanMNT learn from Copa América opener vs Argentina ahead of semi-final rematch?
The CanMNT are getting set for the game of a lifetime this week, as they take on Argentina in the Copa América semi-finals at MetLife Stadium in Rutherford, New Jersey, Tuesday.
There, they’ve got the chance to get a victory that wouldn’t just be the biggest of their generation, but arguably the biggest in the history of the Canadian men’s program, giving an idea of what’s at stake for them when they take the field Tuesday night.
For a team that’s only participating at their first Copa América, and only qualified through a last-ditch playoff, it’s a remarkable opportunity for them to make history, one that may only come around once in a lifetime.
And they’ve got no better opponent for the occasion. Defending World Cup and Copa América champions, and world #1 by both the FIFA Rankings and eloratings, there’s no doubting Argentina’s credentials as the best team in the world right now.
A team that has lost just twice since the fall of 2019, led by the best player in the world, Lionel Messi, this is a generational juggernaut that will stand among the greatest international sides of all time when they’re done - and make no mistake, with a chance to defend their Copa América and World Cup titles still in sight, they don’t have any sign of slowing down anytime soon.
Yet, this only benefits Canada. For outsiders, they were never supposed to be in a game like this. Just making the tournament was a big step, as was making it out of the group.
Jesse Marsch: “Argentina will have to be the best match we’ve ever played and it still might not be enough. But, whatever. We’re going to go for it.”#CanMNT
— Oliver Platt (@plattoli) July 6, 2024
Making it to within one game of a final? That felt like a dream, which while realistic, felt a bit out of reach for a Canadian team just looking to find its feet again after a chaotic 2023.
Armed with a new coach, the goal was just to get back on track and to start making progress again after a landmark 2021 and 2022, in which they reached a World Cup for the first time since 1986. Having since hit a wall since, even stagnating a bit, that was the goal for them this tournament.
Safe to say, they’ve achieved that, and they’re not done yet.
Now, however, their focus will be on Argentina, who is a familiar opponent, as Canada opened their Copa América campaign with a match against La Albiceleste in Atlanta on June 20th, falling 2-0 on the day to goals from Julian Alvárez and Lautaro Martínez.
Now, they’ll look to channel what they learned in that matchup in this rematch. For a team like Canada, who hasn’t had many competitive tests like that one over the last year, they can take a lot from that game, too, which is positive.
Because of that, here’s a look at what Canada did well, what they’ll have to watch out for on Argentina, and a look at how this one might play out, in our match preview.
What did Canada do well in the first meeting?
When looking back at the tape from their first meeting, if Jesse Marsch is to highlight any positives, the entire first half is a pretty good place to start.
There, despite the grandeur of the occasion, Canada did well to find their feet and nearly caught Argentina by surprise early. In fact, they not only could’ve been in the lead by half time, but arguably should’ve, as they had the better chances, too.
The numbers reflect that, as despite the shots being even at seven apiece, Canada had 0.77 xG to Argentina’s 0.44. Yet, some haphazard finishing ended up letting Canada down, reflected by the fact that their 0.77 xG only turned into 0.11 xGOT (a post-shot xG term that reflects the outcome of the shot), compared to 0.91 xGOT for Argentina, showing that Canada struggled to show the quality to finish their chances, whereas Argentina were making their half-chances look dangerous.
From there, Argentina were able to wake up and take over in the second half, scoring their two goals while generating a whopping 2.58 xG and seven big chances. Canada had some opportunities to get back into the game, to be fair, generating 0.39 xG on five shots, including one big chance, but they were only able to turn that 0.39 xG into 0.04 xGOT, while Argentina turned their 2.58 xG into 2.04 xGOT (all xG data this section via OPTA).
Therefore, while the final stats might’ve looked lopsided for Argentina, Canada can look at the first half and be pleased with what they showed.
Out of possession, they did well to defend extremely compactly, sitting resolutely in their 4-2-2-2. In particular, they looked to limit space between the front two and the back four, which meant defending with a high line, as their forwards looked to push up the pitch. 
Despite that, they didn’t really get punished for it in the first half, although Argentina came close on a few occasions. Yet, that’s the risk Canada is willing to play with by employing a high line - they’re confident that with the speed of Moïse Bombito and Alphonso Davies, and the sweeper keeper ability of Maxime Crépeau (who leads the Copa América in the number of defensive actions he’s committed outside his box with 14, as well as the average distance from goal those actions are made, per FBRef), they can overcome that.
Interesting to note: Maxime Crépeau leads all #CopaAmerica and #EURO2024 GKs with 14 defensive actions outside of the penalty area, per @fbref.
— Farhan Devji (@farhandevji) July 7, 2024
And, on average, those actions have been the farthest away from goal (22.3 yards). #canMNT
Otherwise, Canada’s defensive impact further stood out by the fact that they out-duelled Argentina 24-17, showing how well they limited that space. By comparison, they only out-duelled them 26-23 in the second half, as Argentina started to get more of a grip on the physical side of the game.
Then, offensively, Canada’s best chances came in wide areas in the first half. In particular, they did well to overload Argentina’s full backs, with Canada’s left-sided partnership of Liam Millar and Alphonso Davies thriving in that regard, as the pair linked up nicely on a few occasions.
As expected, Canada were also very dangerous in transition, too, doing well to push forward with numbers when they won the ball back, doing well to capitalize on how aggressively Argentina were attacking.
Therefore, when looking back at that first half, it’s fair to say that Canada did well to execute the main principles of Jesse Marsch’s Red Bull system - aggressive and compact defending, and direct vertical attacking play, and were nearly rewarded for it if not for some haphazard finishing.
Given that’s where they’ve looked at their best, with their most recent match against Venezuela arguably their best complete performance in that regard, expect them to want to build off that heading into this rematch.
Where will they have to be wary of?
But while the first half went well for Canada, the second half gave them an idea of where Argentina can be so deadly. Especially after the first goal, which came in the 48th minute, Argentina started to take over as Canada began to get fatigued and then opened up the pitch in chase of an equalizer.
In particular, Argentina started to exploit Canada in transition and with balls over the top, doing well to catch Canada with the sort of direct play they’re set up to defend against.
Yet, what that showed is the importance of not conceding that first goal, as they were forced to open the game up in the chase of an equalizer once they went down, and this is the wrong team to have to do that against.
To be fair, the opening goal itself was a piece of magic, as Messi found Alexis Mac Allister with a perfect pass that only Messi can play, and then Mac Allister did well to find Alvárez before getting clattered by Crépeau, but Canada will want to avoid what happened before Messi received the ball.
ARGENTINA GETS ON THE BOARD!
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 21, 2024
Julián Álvarez gets past Maxime Crépeau for the opening goal. #CA2024 pic.twitter.com/giiQTjGFM2
There, Canada had the ball on a throw-in, where they had time to settle down and pick out a player. Instead, they ended up turning the ball over after rushing the play, and then Argentina had the ball in their net about five seconds later.
But that’s the big thing to watch out for with this aggressive Canadian defensive system. It can work very well when everyone is in position and organized, but it can get quickly picked apart when there’s a mistake, such as a turnover or a missed tackle, which is why it’s crucial for Canada to take care of the ball when they have it, and to pick their moments defensively.
To Canada’s credit, they’ve done those things pretty well this tournament - they’ve only conceded three goals in four Copa América games, and two of them were in this Argentina opener. At the same time, they’ll be frustrated by the fact that two goals - this Alvárez tally and one from Venezuela’s Salomon Rondón, actually came off over aggressive Canadian throw-ins, showing that they’ve also been prone to making some routine errors.
Therefore, that will be the big thing to watch in this Argentina game - can they maintain the defensive concentration required to give themselves a shot over 90 minutes? Ecuador nearly did it in the quarter-finals, limiting Argentina to just eight shots, 0.87 xG and two big chances (OPTA), yet they were still burned off a clever set-piece routine, forcing them to find a late equalizer to reach penalties, which they then lost.
What a chance for Messi and what a save from Crepeau!#CA2024 pic.twitter.com/NSD2138O5U
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 21, 2024
There’s a reason why Argentina have only been shut out six times since the start of the 2019 Copa América, and just two times since the start of 2020 - they’ve got the quality to hurt teams in different ways offensively, and they don’t even need to capitalize on opponents' mistakes to do so, which is why they've got a solid dix goals on a tournament-high 8.9 xG this Copa América.
ARGENTINA EXTENDS THEIR LEAD!
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 21, 2024
Lautaro Martínez makes it a 2-0 game with 2 minutes left to play. #CA2024 pic.twitter.com/eh3DkeM9qN
No matter if you sit back and defend deep, try and press up the pitch, or try and play a transitional run-and-gun, they’re comfortable attacking in multiple ways, and Canada saw that first-hand across their matchup.
For what it’s worth, Argentina can be a bit frail at times defensively, too, a byproduct of having a system that essentially defends a player down to allow Messi to focus primarily on attacking, but exposing those frailities can only be possible if one is solid at the back, as Canada’s first half showed.
Yet, that shows why Canada’s priority will be to remain solid defensively and then try and pick their spots offensively from there, a plan they nearly executed quite well in their first meeting until Alvárez’s opener.
How might this one play out?
Now, the intriguing thing will be to see how this rematch plays out, and how both teams adjust to each other.
For Canada, the big question will be to see how aggressively they defend, especially based on how their second half played out against Argentina. Was that slip-up a sign of fatigue, or a sign of Argentina figuring them out? Finding out the answer to that question will help Marsch in figuring out how he sets up, although one might expect they defend a bit more cautiously this time around.
Richie Laryea "We are a completely different team than we were 20 days ago (when we last played Argentina)"
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 8, 2024
Can the #CanMNT overcome their toughest test yet at the 2024 Copa America?
▶️ Watch 𝙑𝘼𝙈𝙊𝙎! Presented by @Degree on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/PvF41WHRzX
Then, for Argentina, the big thing to watch will be in their attack, as Julian Alvárez looks likeliest to start at striker after Lautaro Martínez had a quiet showing last game, with the pair often alternating games depending on their form, but it’s worth noting that Martínez’s profile suits this Canada game better. Along with the big question mark that surrounds Messi, who didn’t look fully fit during the Ecuador game as he returned from a small injury sustained in the group stages, it’ll be intriguing to see A) how Messi looks in this game, which he’s expected to start and B) if Argentina’s offence looks livelier.
With that in mind, here’s a look at what both teams could line up in this game, as Marsch is unlikely to change much from a bright performance from Venezuela, where his team put in their best performance on both sides of the ball since he’s arrived, while Argentina is only likely to make a tweak or two on their end, as they have all tournament. 
Looking out on the pitch, a key battle to watch is between Jacob Shaffelburg and Nahuel Molina, as Shaffelburg is coming off a massive showing against Venezuela, where he scored Canada’s goal and was named POTM. A well-deserved start given that he entered that match as one of the most dangerous offensive players in the tournament in the group stages, where he came off the bench twice and started another game, he could put some good pressure on Molina.
As much as Jacob Shaffelburg has been a goalscoring threat, he's also second in #CopaAmerica with 0.70 xAG per 90 minutes, according to @fbref.
— Farhan Devji (@farhandevji) July 7, 2024
In other words, he's setting up more expected goals than anyone side from...
Lionel Messi. #canMNT pic.twitter.com/MEtQRIIZ3n
The same goes for Richie Laryea against Nicolas Tagliafico, with Argentina’s full backs arguably the closest thing to a weak link on their squad (if such a thing even exists), which was why Canada thrived in the wide areas when the two teams met, and why it feels like Canada will only find goals if they can do well in those spaces.
Otherwise, one key area for Canada to watch out for will be up front, as they’ve now generated 5.7 xG this Copa América via OPTA, yet have just two goals to show for it, as they’ve struggled to finish. In particular, Jonathan David (1.4 xG, 1 goal) and Cyle Larin (1.1 xG, 0 goals) will be under pressure after starting each game at striker together, as the pair have missed five combined big chances this tournament (three for David, two for Larin).
Either Marsch will bank on the pair again and hope they can return to their usual finishing standard given their status as the CanMNT’s top two all-time leading goalscorers, or he could seek alternative options. For example, Tani Oluwaseyi could earn a start after impressing off the bench, but given that he’s not scored and missed three big chances despite generating 1.1 xG this tournament, that doesn’t fix the finishing issue, meaning that Marsch’s best option would be to deploy more of a creative attacking profile to focus on generating more chances for one striker instead of splitting the load across two. 
(Canada's xG plot from this tournament via WyScout. Bigger circles reflect the quality of chances, while squares are blocked shots)
Given the defensive work David and Larin have done together, that’s unlikely, as Marsch has been very complimentary of the pair, so the pressure will be on them to convert their chances.
Lastly, look for Canada’s back four of Davies, Bombito, Derek Cornelius and Alistair Johnston to step up after putting in a big showing against Venezuela, while Crépeau will look to continue his push towards the tournament Golden Glove with another big game in net. If Canada is going to execute the defensive side of their game plan, those five will be crucial, as they’ve been all tournament.
Otherwise, the big thing for Canada will be to enjoy the occasion. As Ismaël Koné noted before this game, the pressure isn’t on them to win this game, as they’re huge underdogs, so look for them to embrace that status.
No matter what the odds suggest, they’ve still got a chance of winning and will look to enter the game with the belief that they can do so, and then go from there, as they look to continue this magical run with a victory to remember.
