PREVIEW: New-look CanWNT, USWNT rekindle rivalry in all-or-nothing W Gold Cup semi-final
The latest chapter in the storied rivalry between the CanWNT and the USWNT will be written this week, as the pair of teams get set to meet in the semi-finals of the 2024 Concacaf W Gold Cup at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego on Wednesday.
Their first matchup since they met at the She Believes Cup in February of last year, and the first competitive matchup between the two since the final of the 2022 Concacaf Championships, this matchup promises to be intriguing for many reasons.
From the fact that it’s the semi-final of a continental tournament, to the rich history between these two teams, and much more, there will be no shortage of storylines to talk about when they both take the pitch for this clash.
Plus, most interestingly, it feels like they’ve got a chance to revitalize this rivalry, too, which has gone a bit quiet as of late. It’s not their fault, to be fair - both sides have played each other just six times since the start of 2018, two of which being friendlies, meaning that they haven’t gotten the chance to get as familiar with each other as they did in the past, which is important to note.
And given that both teams are going through a bit of a refresh at the moment, with the US starting to move on from the core that won back-to-back World Cups in 2015 and 2019 after a disappointing 2023 World Cup, while Canada is dealing with the retirement of Christine Sinclair and a few other key longtime regulars, that’s removed a lot of the key characters from past battles between these two teams, which is also important to note.
Because of that, this game will serve as an opportunity for a few new names to leave their stamp on this rivalry, one that will always be intense even if the US has dominated Canada since 2002, with Canada winning just one game over the States since then.
Games between these two will always be intense, and neither side will want to lose, meaning that meetings between the two can instantly become classics on the right day.
So even if there are a new cast of characters who will get set to influence this latest matchup, they’ll know what it means to play in a game of this magnitude, one that could be pivotal for the future of both teams, both for the rest of this Gold Cup and heading into the Olympics this summer.
Is this revitalized US side ready to keep up with global charge?
It’s hard to know what to make of this US side these days.
Are they the team that won back-to-back World Cups in 2015 and 2019, and looked poised to threepeat if not for a heartbreaking penalty shootout loss in the Round of 16 at the 2023 tournament? Or are they the side that only won one of four games at that same 2023 World Cup, lost to Canada in the semi-finals of the 2021 Olympics, and lost to Mexico in the group stages of this Gold Cup?
It’s hard to tell, because while this US side hasn’t looked like itself for the last three years, they remain incredibly talented, capable of taking over games when they feel like it.
They reminded teams of that this weekend, as they sleepwalked past a Colombia side many thought could upset them in the quarter-finals, winning 3-0.
After their shock loss to Mexico last week, the USWNT cleaned things up today, cruising to a 3-0 win over Colombia with a refreshed squad
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) March 4, 2024
Now, that gives us a #CanWNT/#CanXNT vs 🇺🇸 clash this Wednesday in the Gold Cup SFs 😳
Huge test for 🇨🇦 therepic.twitter.com/qfkUYFrw59
Less than a week after they were upset 2-0 by Mexico in their final group stage game, it showed what this US team can do on their day, even if they haven’t been as consistently dominant as they were between 2015 and 2019.
Yet, this also shows how the game has evolved globally, too. During that run of back-to-back World Cups, this US side was always more talented and deeper than most teams, having been a force in women’s soccer since day one, giving them an early advantage over the rest of the world.
With the women’s game taking a huge step globally over the last half-decade, however, especially in Europe, the US has started to face more challengers, and are no longer the best team on the planet by a long margin, as a few teams have joined them at the top.
Because of that, it forced them to rethink where they were going as a program, especially in terms of how they developed talent and viewed their roster.
Now, they’re starting to bear the fruits of some of those changes. For example, a big one was the introduction of more and more younger talent into the professional game domestically as early as possible, instead of choosing the college route, as was once custom.
Seeing how European leagues were able to embed young talent into their professional leagues, the US has started to slowly emulate that, which has led to more and more players jumping into the pro game as teenagers instead of going to college, or foregoing years of school to do so as early as possible.
As a result, that’s had a positive effect on the US roster, as their Gold Cup squad has four players aged 21 or under who are all playing professionally in 21-year-old Trinity Rodman (Washington Spirit), 20-year-old Korbin Albert (PSG), 19-year-old Jaedyn Shaw (San Diego Wave) and 18-year-old Olivia Moultrie (Portland Thorns), which would’ve been unheard of years ago.
When you consider that, as well as that this US side has 10 players 25 or younger, many of which are key starters on this team, it shows that the US is finally undergoing a critical generational shift, one that many felt could’ve happened years earlier.
They’ve been slow to embrace it at times, even within this tournament, going with more of a veteran lineup in their loss to Mexico before going younger for their big win over Colombia, but they’ll feel that they’re heading in the right direction.
Especially with a new manager on the way, as Chelsea’s Emma Hayes, widely regarded as one of the best in the world at her job, is set to join at the end of her club season, this US side feels like they’re on the up again, even if their persistence to wait for Hayes as seen them go the last six months with an interim manager in Twila Kilgore.
With this new group of young talent coming through, it feels like Hayes could bring this program to new heights, even despite some of their recent hiccups. 
New-look Canada looking to prove growth isn’t just a mirage:
Meanwhile, Canada has continued to undergo a transition of their own this tournament.
Their first official competition without Christine Sinclair, it has gone quite well for them up to this point, as they’ve won all four of the games they’ve played by a combined score of 14-0, making them one of three teams to not lose a game at the Gold Cup so far, and the only one to do so without conceding a goal.
Despite that, they face a lot of questions heading into this semi-final, as a favourable group stage draw and quarter-final matchup has meant that they’ve avoided a lot of the tough tests from this tournament up to this point, such as the US, Mexico, Brazil or Colombia, inflating some of their statistics.
And given that they struggled in their quarter-final, as it took 120 minutes to beat a Costa Rica side 1-0 that they’d just beaten 3-0 days earlier, it’s made some wonder how this new-look Canadian side will deal with adversity in a big game.
WHAT A SAVE 🧤
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) March 3, 2024
Kailen Sheridan comes up HUGE for the #CanWNT to prevent a late goal by Costa Rica, with this game inching toward the final whistle of regular time 👀
Can Canada find a goal in these dying moments? pic.twitter.com/l3ARFvkYB0
Given that they were quite heavily frustrated by Costa Rica’s desperation defending in that quarter-final, after cruising through the group stage, one can only wonder what they’ll look like against a US side that will look to dominate proceedings from minute one.
At the same time, there is reason for optimism in this Canadian camp. Despite their struggles against Costa Rica, they still dominated that match, outshooting their opponents 39-5, and should’ve won easier if not for some haphazard finishing.
GOAL 🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) March 3, 2024
EVELYNE VIENS with the go-ahead goal in the 104th minute! 🤯
The #CanWNT go up 1-0 over Costa Rica in extra time of this Concacaf W Gold Cup quarter-final: Can they hold on?
🔴 Watch LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/FeiihtpuoT
Plus, as a whole, they’ve played a lot better since the start of September, when they switched formations to a 3-4-2-1, a switch that has completely revitalized this team, giving them back their strong defensive identity while adding goals to a lineup that has struggled to score in the past.
So while there are still questions to answer within that set-up, such as their ideal starting XI, how to best break down a low block and whether or not Canada can handle a high press, it’s also shown a lot of good, such as a staunch defensive posture, and a good midfield balance on both sides of the ball.
Of course, the biggest question this Canadian team has is how they’ll fare against top opposition, as this formation remains relatively untested in that regard. Of the 10 games they’ve played since the World Cup, four games against Australia and Brazil have been the only matches they’ve played against top 15 opposition, and even those matches come with asterisks as Brazil had a brand-new coach, while Australia rotated their squad heavily in one of their games.
Because of that, it feels like this US game could go a long way toward proving whether or not the success they’ve had with the 3-4-2-1 has been a mirage that has been dictated by the level of opposition that they’ve played, or whether or not it can be a legitimate tactical system that can hold up against top teams.
There’s been enough across those 10 games to indicate that it should be the latter, but a lacklustre performance on Wednesday could quickly disprove that.
This is huge for the #CanWNT/#CanXNT, as they may not get a better pre-Olympic test, given the level of of opponent+ the occasion
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) March 4, 2024
Hopefully we see them stick with the 3421 and go for what they feel is their best XI in that formation - no better audition than this game for that
How will these two match up?
But while there’s no doubt that these are two teams who are looking to prove their new-look identities, how might they line up in this game?
To begin, Canada will be expected to stick with that 3-4-2-1, one that sometimes morphs into a 4-4-2 off the ball, although there remains some debate about who might slot in where based on their quarter-final.
For example, at the back Shelina Zadorsky could earn a look at centre back, Simi Awujo is a candidate to start in midfield, while up front Evelyne Viens is primed to lead the line after scoring Canada’s lone goal in the quarter-final.
Other than that, however, expect a lot of the regulars to slot in across the pitch, from Kailen Sheridan in goal, Kadeisha Buchanan and Vanessa Gilles at centre back, Ashley Lawrence and Gabrielle Carle at wing back, Jessie Fleming in midfield, and the pair of Adriana Leon and Cloé Lacasse underneath the striker.
On the other side, the US will likely play a 4-2-3-1, one that can turn into a 3-2-1-4 in possession, with their right back tucking into the back three.
Based on what they employed against Colombia, that would see Alyssa Naeher start in goal, with a back four of Jenna Nighswonger at left back, Naomi Girma and Tierna Davidson at centre back, and Emily Fox at right back. From there, they would be expected to employ a tweak, as it would not be surprising to see captain Lindsey Horan drop back into midfield with Sam Coffey, leading to an attacking four of Jaedyn Shaw on the left, Rose Lavelle at the #10, Trinity Rodman on the right and one of Alex Morgan or Sophia Smith up front, with the former likely to start.
From there, that would create some interesting matchups on both sides of the ball.
To begin, when Canada would be in possession, the big thing to watch for would be the US’s press, which is quite aggressive. Starting in a 4-4-2 off the ball, they press heavily through the front two, who are either sometimes just supported by the strong side wide player to press with three, or are supported by both wide players to press in an aggressive 4-2-4.
Something that Canada’s previously struggled to deal with when they used to play a 4-2-3-1, as the US’s front six would match up 1v1 with Canada’s back four and their two midfielders, it’ll be interesting to see if they can take advantage of their switch to the 3-4-2-1.
Given that they should have seven players to build up with, there will always be an extra player to find, especially if their midfield pivot can help create the triangles necessary to link play.
Because of that, the two things to watch there will be to see if Canada can create those triangles, which could be helped by a Simi Awujo start, and what the US does to try and limit it, which could see them press with three instead of four from the front in more of a staggered 4-3-3.
Otherwise, something to watch out for will be Canada’s transition threat, as they’ll look to take advantage of the US’s left side, which can be vulnerable with how aggressively they deploy Nighswonger in possession. As a result, it could make sense for Canada to deploy Lacasse on that side, given her speed, and leave Adriana Leon on the left, even if the pair usually are deployed in opposite positions.
Lastly, a big factor will be Canada’s wing backs, which will look to create wide overloads when they do get past the US press. Seeing as some of Canada’s best chances against Costa Rica came from their wing backs, as they struggled to generate much centrally, using them again in this game could be key. 
On the other side of the ball, look for the US to be patient when building out of the back, with Canada unlikely to press them as aggressively, even if they won’t be too passive, either. From there, the big thing Canada will have to watch is a midfield overload, as the US will feel that they can outnumber Canada there with the midfield three they can employ in possession.
If the US can start to stretch Canada there, it will open up the field for the likes of Nighswonger and Rodman out wide, as well as Morgan and Shaw up front, and the US also has speedy transition threats like Smith, Midge Purce and Lynn Williams to keep an eye on.
JENNA NIGHSWONGER KNOWS EXACTLY WHAT SHE'S DOING 👑
— Attacking Third (@AttackingThird) March 4, 2024
Calm, cool, and collected 😌 pic.twitter.com/98zmqbDL6z
Because of that, Canada will need to find a good balance between where they keep their defensive line, which can’t be too high but not too low, as well as how closely they keep their midfield four from their back four, as the US will expose any big gaps between them.
Elsewhere, a big matchup to watch will be on set pieces. Canada has the weapons to be dangerous there in Kadeisha Buchanan, Vanessa Gilles, Shelina Zadorsky, Jordyn Huitema and more, but their delivery has been inconsistent this tournament. Meanwhile, with the US, they’ve got one of the best set-piece specialists in the NWSL in Coffey, but have lacked targets for her to aim at, so ironically both teams have found themselves in opposite positions, which they’ll try to change.
Overall, though, this promises to be an intriguing tactical matchup, one that will be interesting to see play out from a Canadian perspective.
On paper, the 3-4-2-1 should help Canada overcome some of the struggles they’ve had in terms of playing out of a high press, while still giving them the threat in wide areas they’ll feel they need against a US team that can leave spaces there, but putting that into practice is different than theory.
Therefore, for Canada, this will be an important opportunity to test out their formation, as well as some individuals within it. For example, a potential Awujo start would be a perfect example of that - in a best Canadian lineup, she might not be in it at the moment ahead of Quinn, but Awujo’s felt like a great fit alongside Fleming in this formation, so it would be nice to see how she fares against the US midfield.
And she’s not the only one to keep an eye on, as Jade Rose could play a key role at the back, while Olivia Smith could be a game-breaking option up front if she’s out of concussion protocol in time for this clash, having missed out against Costa Rica for that reason.
So look for that, as Canada looks to potentially lean on some new faces in their new formation to try and reverse their past fortunes against their neighbours, all while keeping themselves in contention to win their first Concacaf trophy since 2010, as well as continue their preparation to defend their Olympic gold medal this summer.
