PREVIEW: CanWNT looking to build off strong Olympic group stage performance in key quarter-final clash vs Germany
The journey continues for the CanWNT at the Paris Summer Olympics.
Despite being handed a six-point deduction after a spying scandal that rocked the tournament before it even began, Canada overcame that this past week, winning all three of their group-stage games to qualify in second place out of their group.
Just the second time they’ve ever won all three games in the group stages of a major tournament (Olympics or World Cup), having previously done so at the 2016 Olympics in Rio, this accomplishment is arguably even more impressive given that they had to find a way to get maximum points in three must-win games, putting the pressure on them to perform in each match they played.
Now, that allows them to enter the knockout stages filled with confidence, as they ride the wave of three big wins, having beat New Zealand 2-1, before defeating hosts France by the same score and then finishing the job with a confident 1-0 win over Colombia.
"When adversity and pressure comes, we really rely on each other" 🇨🇦
— CBC Olympics (@CBCOlympics) July 31, 2024
Vanessa Gilles scored her second goal of #Paris2024 in Canada's 1-0 win over Colombia to help the defending Olympic champions advance to the quarterfinals in women’s soccer pic.twitter.com/IoAKyUu7BJ
In the quarter-finals, however, a stiff test awaits, as they get set to take on Germany.
Interestingly, the last time they faced Germany in a major tournament? It was at the 2016 Olympics, where Germany eventually claimed gold, with Canada first defeating them 2-1 in the group stage before Germany got their revenge with a 2-0 win in the semi-finals.
Canada eventually got their revenge for their semi-final loss five years later when they won gold, making up for the feeling that 2016 was one of their best chances ever to win it all, but this German matchup is still to bring back certain memories for those who watched the 2016 games.
No doubt, however, this will be an entertaining battle between the last two gold medallists from this tournament, which should yield a strong matchup no matter what.
FT - CANADA ARE THROUGH TO THE KNOCKOUTS 😎🇨🇦#CanWNT pic.twitter.com/KO9nWMAaCJ
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 31, 2024
With that in mind, here’s everything you NEED to know about this match, which goes down on Saturday, August 3rd in Marseille.
Germany looking to re-find top form in quest to return to the Olympic podium:
After once being a global powerhouse in women’s soccer, winning back-to-back World Cups in 2003 and 2007, Olympic gold in 2016 and eight of the nine Euros between 1989 and 2013, Germany have slowed down a lot since.
That’s reflected in each of their recent showings at those tournaments, as Germany only made the quarter-finals of the 2019 World Cup and didn’t even make it out of their group in 2023, failed to qualify for the 2021 Olympics, and fell in the quarter-finals of the 2017 Euros and the final of the 2021 Euros.
For a side that used to automatically be a favourite to make deep runs in any tournament they’ve played, it’s been a surprise to see, as they’ve struggled to live up to the lofty expectations placed on the program after all of their success in the 2000s and the 2010s.
The 2023 World Cup was their biggest shortcoming in that regard, as they failed to advance from the group stages of that tournament for the first time in their history despite being a favourite to win, unable to get past a group with Morocco, Colombia and South Korea.
Because of that, they’ve been looking to change that at these Olympics, having done well to qualify and avoid missing out on a second straight edition of the Games, doing so with a younger group.
So far, they’ve done well to reach this stage of this tournament, too, qualifying from a group with the US, Australia and Zambia with two wins, which came against Australia and Zambia, who they beat 3-0 and 4-1 respectively.
VIERTELFINALE!!! ❤️🔥#TeamD #ZAMGER #RoadToParis2024
— DFB-Frauen (@DFB_Frauen) July 31, 2024
📸 Getty Images pic.twitter.com/aD98PY2BV1
At the same time, they struggled in their matchup against the US, losing 4-1 to the Americans in a lopsided defeat where they failed to keep the US’s dangerous attackers quiet, especially early in the game.
Because of that, it’s hard to know what to make of this German side, who showed glimpses of what they can be at their best in their wins, before struggling mightily in their loss.
Yet, that’s the biggest challenge of veteran head coach, Horst Hrubesch, who has been in charge since last fall - finding some consistency from game to game.
No doubt, this German side can score, as they’ve been shut out just once in the 18 games they’ve played since the World Cup, and it’s not as if goals were their issue in Australia given that they scored eight times at that tournament (albeit six of them came in a game 1 blowout of Morocco). And defensively, they haven’t been poor, either, conceding 18 goals in those 18 games.
Despite that, they’ve had some games where they’ve been unable to put that all together at once across long stretches, which has led to some frustrating results, such as a 3-0 July Euro qualifying loss to Iceland.
The US game is a prime example of where they’ve struggled, as they generated 1.63 xG while allowing 2.11, making the 4-1 result seem more lopsided than it should’ve been. Yet, they instead struggled to finish their chances, and the US punished them, allowing them to cruise to a big victory.
At the same time, it’s worth noting that Germany did enter this tournament with a big absence, as midfielder Lena Oberdorf got injured right before the start of the Olympics, which was a massive blow as the 22-year-old is a key piece in this midfield and is seen as one of the best in the world at her position.
For a team that’s already relatively inexperienced in the middle of the park, with just one of their five listed midfielders for the Olympics sitting with 50 or more caps (and that’s Julie Brand with 50 exactly), they’ve had to get creative to try and find solutions to replace Oberdorf.
Namely, they’ve mainly gone with Alexandra Popp, a forward with 67 goals in 141 games for her country, as a midfielder. They’ve been able to get away with that as they’re quite loaded up front - Bayern Munich forward Lea Schüller has three goals this tournament to now give her an impressive 45 goals in 65 games for Germany, while fellow Bayern forward Klara Bühl is now up to 26 goals in 55 caps for Germany after finding the net once in the group stages - that’s been a huge luxury to have both still patrolling the field with Popp playing deeper.
At the same time, one can only wonder what Germany could look like with Oberdorf patrolling the midfield, freeing up Popp to play more offensively.
Especially given that Germany had already left three veteran midfielders out of their squad in Lina Magull, Sara Däbritz and Linda Dallman, one could wonder if Germany could’ve used them in light of Oberdorf’s absence.
Otherwise, as mentioned earlier it’s worth noting that this German side is skewing quite young this tournament. When looking at their squad, they’ve got nine players 25 and younger, compared to five over 30, and just one player with more than 100 caps (Popp with 139) showing the impact of the generational shift they’ve been undergoing.
Because of that, this game will be key for this side. With Popp also the lone remaining gold medallist in this roster, most of this German side hasn’t had the chance to experience a deep run in an international tournament together or to play in big matches like this, which is why reaching the semi-finals could go a long way for them long-term as they look to return to their status as a team that consistently goes deep in these kind of tournaments. 
Canada ready to wipe slate clean in knockout stages:
As for this Canadian team, however, they’ll be looking to build off their strong group stage showing with a big quarter-final win, allowing them to reach the semi-finals for a fourth straight Olympics.
Having entered this tournament intending to defend their gold medal and reach the podium for the fourth straight Olympics, they’ll be pleased to see they’re back on track after their earlier blip of the point deduction.
For a side also coming off a group-stage exit at the 2023 World Cup, it was hard to imagine them overcoming their six-point deduction given their struggles at that tournament, so to see them then respond with three straight wins was quite impressive.
In particular, they’ve done well to find something they’ve lacked at past tournaments, which is to score goals, while returning to the fundamentals of what allowed them to win a gold medal in Tokyo, and that’s to also keep them out of their net.
Having scored five goals and conceded just two across three group stage games, they’ve done a good job of doing that so far this tournament, allowing them to grab those crucial wins.
Not sure what's better - the service from Jessie Fleming, or the header from Vanessa Gilles to put 🇨🇦 up 1-0 over🇨🇴
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) July 31, 2024
Gilles continues to be a goalscoring threat for club and country - and pretty clutch, too#CanWNT/#CanXNTpic.twitter.com/lRhV98hoPI
Plus, it sets them up nicely to thrive in the knockout stages, where they can move out of “must win” territory to “must not lose” territory, where they tend to thrive. They showed that at the last Olympics, where they won all three of their knockout games despite scoring just two goals, both of them being penalties, as they conceded just one goal across 330+ minutes of knockout soccer.
If they can put up similar defensive performances once again, it feels like they’ve now got the offensive firepower to thrive, already scoring more in the group stage of these Olympics than they did in all six of their matches in Tokyo.
Not only that, but they’ve had some key individuals step up, too. Kailen Sheridan has been rock-solid in goal, while the back three of Kadeisha Buchanan, Vanessa Gilles and Jade Rose have all been immense, with Rose leading the way defensively and Gilles with her all-around play and a pair of crucial winning goals.
Combined with a standout tournament from captain Jessie Fleming, some strong cameos from attackers such as Evelyne Viens, Janine Beckie, Cloé Lacasse and more, and there’s lots to be pleased with from an individual standpoint.
Especially given that they’re yet to see the best from Adriana Leon, who is yet to score in these Olympics after generating nine goals in her previous nine games this year for Canada, one could expect her to step up in a big way in the knockout stages, which is something to watch.
So overall, the lone big thing to watch with this Canadian team will be fatigue, as they’ve already played three physically and emotionally gruelling games, and weren’t able to rest some key players due to the must-win nature of each match.
They were able to get through the group stages without any issues, but showed signs of fatigue by their third game, and with a short turnaround ahead of the quarter-finals, they won’t have much time to rest and recover.
At the same time, it’s worth noting that Canada has the depth to turn to if needed, having used all 16 of their outfield players in some fashion this tournament. Ahead of this one, they’ll need to rely on several of those players once again, be it from the start or off the bench, but that shouldn’t be a problem for a team that prides itself on their depth. 
How will they match up?
Now, however, the big thing will be to say how these teams match up, as there will be lots to watch out for in terms of potential battles, especially when seeing how Germany lines up.
Speaking of, it’s worth noting that Canada’s fatigue issue might not be as pronounced, as Germany could also be quite tired, having hardly rotated their lineup throughout the group stage, making just one change in each game, both coming at the back.
As a result, that means that nine of their players started all three games, while another started two of their games, which means they could also be quite tired in this game.
In terms of system, Germany will be expected to play a 4-4-2, which they did in their first two games, although there’s a chance it could also turn into a 4-1-4-1, as it did in their last game, in which Sjoeke Nüsken featured as a midfielder after playing the other two games as a striker. 
Stylistically, Germany has been a bit more conservative offensively, keeping an average of 49% possession in their games, letting Australia and the US hold more of the ball before keeping 63% against Zambia in their finale.
Despite that, they haven’t been a big counterattacking team, doing their best work in possession, and they’ve done well within that, generating an average of 16 shots and 2 xG per game in the group stages. Interestingly, they’ve done quite well on set-pieces, too, especially against Australia and Zambia.
That’s not a surprise, though, as defensively they’re quite strong in the air, doing well to win a high percentage of aerial duels in the group stages (56.5%). Otherwise, they’ve also done well to limit teams when they get behind the ball, allowing an average of 1.14 xG per game on just 9.33 shots. They did struggle in their wide-open game against the US, who had 2.11 xG on 13 shots to inflate that total, but when they’ve gotten numbers behind the ball, they’ve tended to do well.
As for Canada, they’ve mostly used the 3-4-2-1 they adopted since the 2023 World Cup in this tournament, defending in a 4-4-2 while using the back three in attack. They did tweak things in this group stage, using a 3-5-2 against France, but have otherwise stuck with the 3-4-2-1, although they could be tempted to use the 3-5-2 again to try and overwhelm the lighter German midfield. 
Shifting to their attack, Canada has been quite direct, keeping just 46% of possession in the group stages. In particular, they’ve been lethal on set-pieces and crosses, doing well to funnel the ball into the box, although they can do some damage from central areas if they can get Fleming on the ball in those positions.
Yet, given that they play with wingers and wing backs, it’s not surprising to see them do their best work out wide, as they’ve got the players to create dangerous overloads, which can then allow them to have space to either whip in crosses or push the ball centrally.
And to their credit, seeing that they scored five goals and generated an average of 1.73 xG a game on 12.67 shots, they’ve done well to make the most of their attack - by comparison, they averaged just 1.25 xG on 8.5 shots in Tokyo.
Defensively, however, Canada has done very well to keep the ball away from their net, too, as they’ve not only conceded just two goals, but they’ve only allowed just 0.97 xG per game on just an average of 7.67 shots. In particular, they did some of their finest work against strong offensive sides France and Colombia, keeping them to a combined 17 shots, which is quite impressive.
So overall, Canada will be looking to build off the group stages, in which they put in a complete performance on both sides of the ball, allowing them to win all three games.
They weren’t perfect, as they can struggle to find the right combinations offensively and start games slowly, but they make up for that by finishing games with a bang, outscoring their opponents 4-0 in the second half of games in the group stages. Along with their strong team defence, that’s proven to be a good combination.
With that in mind, here’s how both teams could line up, based on all of those factors. 
In terms of battles to watch, the midfield will be key, given Germany’s unique set-up, so keep an eye on their pivot of Popp and Janine Minge, who will do a lot of the heavy lifting, with Nüsken perhaps dropping in to help. For Canada, look for them to counter with the pair of Fleming and one of Simi Awujo or Quinn - although they could be tempted to try Julia Grosso alongside Fleming and Awujo or Quinn in a trio if they want to overload Germany’s group.
Elsewhere, look for Schuller to try and match up directly with Canada’s centre backs, coming off a brace against Zambia in Germany’s last game. She’ll be in tough as Rose has handled some tough 1v1 assignments and thrived, Gilles has been dominant in both boxes, and Buchanan has quietly defended well all tournament, but Schüller will look to find space centrally to try and make things happen against that trio.
Lastly, look for Canada’s wing backs to try and stretch the field out wide, opening up space centrally to attack Germany.
In particular, Janine Beckie could be one to watch in that regard, as she’s done well to stretch the pitch in a pair of sub appearances and one start, and has grown as the tournament has gone along. As a result, she could be key if she slots in at right wing back, especially given that could push Ashley Lawrence to left wing back, where she’s looked at her best this tournament.
Overall, though, there’s no doubt that this game could be a tight one where both teams will need to be decisive to win, making it one to watch.
Yet, that’s the beauty of knockout football - it’s where the best teams tend to shine, so now for Canada, they’ll look to show that their group stage performance wasn’t a fluke and also prepared them for the grind that awaits them if they’re to repeat as gold medallists.
