PREVIEW: CanWNT looking to balance Olympic preparation with strong performances in send-off matches vs. Mexico
The CanWNT will take the pitch the final two times before they name an Olympic squad, as they get set for a pair of friendlies against Mexico in Montréal and Toronto this week.
Also serving as their home send-off ahead of the Olympics later this summer, as they’ll spend their final pre-tournament window playing friendlies in Europe this July, it’s a big chance to narrow down their squad to the 18 (plus alternates) they’ll bring to Paris, while also balancing that with some celebratory games at home.
Certainly, that provides a unique challenge, as they’ll want to make the most of this final opportunity to see players audition in a Canadian camp, while still ensuring they send the fans off with two victories.
For what it’s worth, Canada should be up to this challenge, as they continue what’s been a strong post-2023 World Cup period for the team, but two tough matches await them in this window against a chippy Mexican side.
Who’s ready for our Summer Send-Off Series, presented by CIBC and VISA🙋♀️🙋♂️
— CANWNT (@CANWNT) May 23, 2024
Here’s who you can expect to see there!#CANWNT pic.twitter.com/NzBFzmATiO
A Mexican team coming off a strong start to the year, which included a strong showing at the 2024 Gold Cup, Mexico are looking to keep that going with some good performances against their Concacaf foes in Canada, who they’ll certainly be eager to beat.
With that in mind, here’s a look at what to expect from these two matchups.
Mexico looking to build off a strong start to 2027 World Cup cycle:
No doubt, this is a crucial period for the Mexican team, who are still recovering from a disastrous 2022 which saw them miss out on the World Cup for a second straight edition.
Given that the World Cup had expanded to 32 teams for the 2023 edition, giving Concacaf four guaranteed berths along with two half berths, Mexico seemed like a shoo-in to earn one of those six spots, making their absence surprising.
Especially after missing out on qualification on home soil, failing to get out of the group stages of the 2022 Concacaf Championships held in Monterrey, not even picking up a win, it immediately put the pressure on them to step up big in the 2027 World Cup cycle. That further showed when they brought in Spanish coach Pedro López, who had won the 2022 U20 Women’s World Cup with Spain, later that year, which served as a signal of intent for that cycle.
And so far, they’ve been off to a good start to the López era. They cruised through Gold Cup qualifying last fall, winning four out of four to book a spot at the Gold Cup this spring while simultaneously winning the Pan-American games, which was a boost for those who participated.
Then, building off that, they had a strong Gold Cup, winning their group thanks to a statement 2-0 victory over the US, setting up the potential for a deep run into the knockout stages.
Huge Gold Cup result, as🇲🇽didn’t just beat 🇺🇸 2-0, but dominated, too. What a way to win group A, accentuated by this GOLAZO from Mayra Pelayo
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) February 27, 2024
This is mixed for #CanWNT/#CanXNT - their path to top KO seed is easier, but they’re likelier to play 🇺🇸 in SFspic.twitter.com/EqLUwIXfO2
Unfortunately, they came up short in that quest after beating Paraguay in the quarter-finals, as Brazil dispatched them 3-0 in the semi-finals, but it was still a solid showing for Mexico.
Armed with a solid base of players playing in Mexico, the US and Europe, they’ve done well to rejuvenate their squad, calling in 17 players who are 27 or younger for this camp. At the same time, with just three players 22 or younger, this is very much a squad either in their prime or close to entering it, as many will do throughout this cycle.
That shows how pivotal these next few years are, as there is no reason why they can’t peak in time to have a strong 2027 World Cup, where they’ll believe they’re capable of producing more wins like the one they had against the US at the Gold Cup.
Now, these Canada matches are a good test for that, and they’ll now look to make the most of the opportunity that awaits them here, showing where they’re at in their current lifecycle.
How will both sides match up?
Of course, having now had nearly two years under López, it’s been interesting to see the evolution of Mexico’s tactical profile over that span.
Before, Mexico could often sit as a team that was comfortable playing without the ball, spending a lot of the time focusing on the defensive side of their game, either sitting in a 4-1-4-1 or a 4-4-2, their two most-used formations in 2021.
Now, however, they’re a team that can hold the ball for longer, comfortable in their ideas in possession. They can be flexible and play without the ball, as they showed against the US, but they thrive when able to play in possession.
THE SCOOP WAS DELICIOUS 🍦🇲🇽
— Attacking Third (@AttackingThird) February 27, 2024
Mexico converts the FIRST goal of the match 👀 pic.twitter.com/7w1qx4NVXm
As a result, they’ve averaged over 14 shots a game in 2024, and have turned nearly 1/3rd of their positional attacks into shots - for reference, they only averaged 7.63 shots a game in 2021, turning 23.9% of positional attacks into shots (and they averaged nearly half the number of positional attacks they do now, too).
In terms of a tactical set-up, López hasn’t changed too much from before - their most used formation in 2024 has been a 4-1-4-1, but unlike before, where Mexico’s 4-1-4-1 often turned into a defensive 4-4-2, their second most used formation is a 4-3-3, which is more of an attack-minded set-up, showing their mindset.
Otherwise, some players to watch are midfielders Maria Sánchez and Jacquline Ovalle, who are often deployed out wide in that 4-1-4-1. Sánchez, who plays for the NWSL’s San Diego Wave, and Ovalle, who plays for Liga MX side Tigres, are the team’s two leading scorers among the squad they’ve called up for this window, scoring 14 and 19 goals, respectively, giving an idea of how effective they can be in those wide roles, too.
Along with a solid core of defenders that includes Kenti Robles (Real Madrid), Rebecca Bernal (Monterrey), Greta Espinoza (Tigres) and Cristina Ferral (Tigres), all of whom have 45 or more caps, look for Mexico to rely on them and the pair of Sánchez and Ovalle to bring their experience to this camp.
At the same time, this Mexican side does have a core of intriguing young players to watch who are playing outside of Mexico. At the back, 25-year-old Jimena López (Valencia) and 23-year-old Reyna Reyes (Portland Thorns) are two names who stand out in this squad, while 23-year-old midfielder Scarlett Cambreros (Bay FC) is someone who could play a big role in the middle of the park.
Then, that leads to arguably the crown jewel of that group up front, 22-year-old Diana Ordóñez (Houston Dash), who already has 10 goals in just 26 caps for Mexico, and is someone who will be heavily relied upon in the attack given her profile as an electric attacker who can stretch defences and score in different ways.
When looking at that, Canada will have to be wary of Mexico’s threat out wide and up front, putting a lot of emphasis on their centre backs and wing backs to be responsible in and out of possession. From there, the midfield battle will be key, especially if Mexico employs three midfielders to Canada’s two, putting pressure on Canada to stay organized and disciplined in the middle of the park, while Canada’s attack will be relied upon to do some damage with their front three.
Yet, this will be a good test for Canada, with head coach Bev Priestman noting that she sees Mexico as a similar side to Colombia, who Canada has to play at the Olympics.
Given that Colombia has spent 79% of 2024 in a 4-3-3, are a team that likes to play in possession and has some difference-makers in the attack, that parallel isn’t far-fetched, either.
Plus, it’s worth noting that both Mexico and Colombia don’t make games easy for opponents, which can lead to some chippy games, so this can also be a good test for Canada to see if they’ll be ready to handle what will likely be a physical contest with Colombia.
Certainly, tactics will play a big role in games like that one or these Mexico friendlies, but it can be tough to follow a game plan when up against a chippy team that tries to get you off your game, making this camp a good practice run for Canada.
What to expect from Canada?
Speaking of Canada, the big thing to watch in this camp will be to see who Priestman puts out on the pitch, as it’s expected Canada sticks in their 3-4-2-1, with the possibility for an experiment or two with a different formation later in games.
For the most part, their starters in that 3-4-2-1 are well-known - Kailen Sheridan will be leaned on in goal, Jade Rose, Vanessa Gilles and Kadeisha Buchanan are expected to make up the back three, while Ashley Lawrence, Jessie Fleming and Janine Beckie are locked in starters elsewhere on the pitch.
After that, there are a few intriguing questions, especially amid some injury concerns for Canada. For example, at wing back, does Gabrielle Carle start amid an excellent season for the Washington Spirit, or does Jayde Riviere slot in given she’s typically been ahead of Carle for Canada, even if she’s coming off an injury-filled campaign? Or does Beckie slot in at wing back despite playing well up front for the Portland Thorns?
Then, in midfield, with Quinn already absent from this camp, does that open up Simi Awujo to slot in and replace them after some strong showings recently for Canada? Or does Desiree Scott slot in despite not having many minutes under her belt, or will Julia Grosso get a look alongside Fleming after looking like a better fit in the attack?
Bev Priestman opens her press conference talking about some of the key #CanWNT/#CanXNT absences, noting that Quinn and Sydney Collins are still in contention for the Olympics but that'll be very tight, especially for Collins
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) May 23, 2024
Adds that Quinn isn't out long-term, which is huge
Lastly, that leaves that attack, which will certainly be experimented with given that usual starters Nichelle Prince and Jordyn Huitema are both coming off injuries. Given the campaign she’s had for Roma, Evelyne Viens seems a shoo-in to start, but this wouldn’t be the first time she doesn’t start despite strong club form, and it certainly feels like Adriana Leon, Cloé Lacasse, Prince and Huitema all have strong claims to start, too - plus one can’t forget about Olivia Smith in this discussion, either.
Naturally, one should expect all of those names to get minutes across both games, be it as starters or off the bench, but how Priestman handles that will be watched closely, given that it could indicate how she’s leaning in terms of picking her Olympic squad.
With that in mind, however, here’s a potential XI that could make the most sense to see in the opening match based on a combination of form, recent performances for Canada and familiarity.
While it might not be the XI Canada starts the Olympics with (there’s too much time between now and the start of the games to suggest so yet), it could be a good place to start this camp, and then Priestman can make tweaks from there.
Armed with a deep squad, one that is giving her a headache in terms of picking an Olympic squad, it’s also an asset in a camp like this, as she’ll have no shortage of options to rotate in and experiment with as she makes her final Olympic decisions.
Certainly, she’s not in an enviable position given what she has to do to select an Olympic team, set to leave some strong players at home, but having done this before in 2021 en route to a gold medal, she’ll now look to replicate similar magic this time around, which many Canadians will be hoping she can do.
To do that, however, a strong camp in this window will go a long way, and will be something Priestman will look to make happen.
