PREVIEW: CanMNT looking to get journey to 2026 back on track in Copa Amรฉrica playoff vs T&T
We’re just days away from one of the biggest games in recent CanMNT history, as they get set to take on Trinidad & Tobago in a one-game Copa América playoff at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, on Saturday, March 23rd.
There, Canada can either get itself back on track in terms of their preparation for the 2026 World Cup, or things can go firmly off the rails for them, continuing what has been a rocky post-2022 World Cup journey from their perspective.
That gives an idea of why this game is so huge, as winning could positively impact this Canadian team for years to come, while a loss could have ramifications that will be felt for just as long.
Because of that, it’ll be imperative that Canada is wary of the threat that Trinidad & Tobago poses. On paper, this is a matchup that Canada will fancy, as they’re ranked 50th and T&T is down in 96th in the FIFA Rankings, while Canada is ranked fourth and T&T 10th in the Concacaf ranking index.
Yet, as seen as of late, when T&T beat a US side ranked 13th in the world and second in Concacaf’s Ranking Index in November, they’ve shown proficiency at beating teams ranked much higher than them.
Therefore, Canada will make sure not to take this side lightly. With it being a one-game playoff in a neutral venue, it’ll be anyone’s game when things kick off on March 23rd, one that will be decided on fine margins.
#CANMNT will play Trinidad and Tobago in a winner takes all Play-In Round for one of the final spots at the 2024 Copa América ๐ pic.twitter.com/xRfCAkLfYw
— Canada Soccer (@CanadaSoccerEN) November 22, 2023
With that in mind, here’s a look at what to expect from this game, one that should have plenty of Canadians keeping a close eye on it.
Trinidad & Tobago looking to grind their way to big dance:
Once upon a time, T&T were one of the most feared teams in Concacaf, finishing third at the 2000 Gold Cup, and qualifying for the 2006 World Cup.
Since then, however, they’ve slipped just outside of Concacaf’s elite, sometimes flirting with being a top-six team, but then sometimes dropping outside of the top 10 altogether.
As a result, there have been high moments, such as when they beat the US in the 2018 World Cup qualifiers to deny the Americans a spot at the World Cup, but there have also been lows, such as failing to qualify for the 2009, 2011 and 2017 Gold Cups, for example.
Now, however, they’re trending in a positive direction. After a lean period at the beginning of this decade, in which they failed to win a game at the 2019 and 2021 Gold Cups, were relegated from League A of the inaugural Nations League campaign in 2019-2020, and were eliminated in the first round of 2022 World Cup qualifying, they’ve started to turn things around as of late.
Starting with the hire of head coach Angus Eve right before the 2021 Gold Cup, as they promoted the former midfielder with 115 T&T caps from a job with the U20 team to the senior role, they’ve been heading in the right direction ever since.
First, they earned promotion back to League A with a positive showing in League B in the 2022-2023 edition of the tournament, won their first Gold Cup game since 2015 at the 2023 edition, and got off to a strong start to their League A return in this 2023-2024 Nations League campaign.
Through that, they were able to qualify for the quarter-finals of the Nations League, doing well to finish top two in their group, giving them a chance at Copa América qualification ahead of teams like El Salvador and Curaçao.
So while they came up close in their first attempt at reaching that tournament, falling 4-2 on aggregate to two-time Nations League champions, the US, they head into this Canada matchup confident in the direction that they’re heading, especially given that they won the second leg against the US 2-1 after losing leg one 3-0.
Reon Moore scored the first for Trinidad & Tobago! ๐น๐น pic.twitter.com/uPz8l3hiLE
— Concacaf Nations League (@CNationsLeague) November 21, 2023
Just look at the squad that they’ve called in for these games, which features 10 players 25 and under, a handful of players playing in Europe, and a whole crew of players featuring at a good level across Concacaf. A more inexperienced group, as just three players have 40 caps or more in Athens midfielder Levi García (42 caps), Police FC defender Alvin Jones (44 caps), and Cartagines defender Aubrey David (74 caps), they’ve done well to gel under Eve’s tutelage despite that lack of experience.
๐๐๐๐จ ๐๐จ ๐ค๐ช๐ง 23-๐๐๐ฃ ๐๐ค๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ก๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐พ๐ค๐ฅ๐ ๐ผ๐ข๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ฎ-๐๐ฃ ๐๐ช๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐๐๐ฃ๐จ๐ฉ ๐พ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐ค๐ฃ ๐๐๐ง๐๐ 23๐ง๐ ๐๐ฃ ๐๐ง๐๐จ๐๐ค. pic.twitter.com/mztkfGqh4a
— TTFA (@TTFootballAssoc) March 14, 2024
Because of that, it’ll be fascinating to see what’s next for them in their journey. The big goal for them will be to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, claiming one of the three extra spots that Concacaf has earned in the expanded 48-team tournament, but they’ve got big goals to achieve before then, too.
And qualifying for the Copa América has to be one of them. If they’re to make it to the 2026 World Cup, playing at a tournament of this magnitude would be a massive boost for them, giving them a taste of high-level soccer that could boost their qualifying campaign, which starts in June of this year.
Therefore, keep an eye on this team heading into this match, as they feel this could be the perfect coming-out party to show what’s to come for them over the next few years.
Can Canada put Jamaica collapse behind them?
While T&T is trending in a positive direction, however, Canada is looking to get back on track after taking a bit of a step backwards in 2023.
After nothing but big steps forward between 2019 and June of 2023, including reaching the semi-finals of the 2021 Gold Cup, reaching their first World Cup in 36 years in 2022, and then reaching the finals of the 2023 Nations League last June, things quickly stalled over the next six months.
Starting with a frustrating 2-0 loss in that final, they then lost in the quarter-finals of the Gold Cup after a disappointing group stage, and then they missed out on their first chance at qualifying for Copa América by losing in the quarter-finals of the Nations League to Jamaica despite holding a 3-1 aggregate lead at one point. Along with the surprise departure of head coach John Herdman along the way, as well as plenty of off-pitch turmoil, that quickly wore off the shine after the journey to that 2022 World Cup.
As a result, what had started as a year in 2023 where they felt they could win a trophy and affirm their status as one of the top teams in Concacaf saw them take a big step back by the end of it, showing that there is still work to do if they’re to push onto the same level as the US and Mexico more consistently after flirting with that notion over the last few years. 
Despite that, however, it’s worth noting that this Canadian team is still in a very good place, and can easily get back on track ahead of the 2026 World Cup, which promises to be a huge moment for the program.
First, there’s the fact that a lot of their negative 2023 results aren’t that bad in hindsight - their Nations League finals loss was to a favoured US team that is the best in Concacaf, they struggled at the Gold Cup with a more experimental squad, and their loss to Jamaica was against an underrated Jamaican side that’s one of the best in the region on paper, so it’s not as if those losses were of the “major upset” variety.
Then, there’s the reality that this is still a very good team on paper, as Alphonso Davies remains the best player in Concacaf, Jonathan David is still the best striker, while Stephen Eustáquio and Tajon Buchanan would probably start on almost every team in the region. Plus, 14 of the 23 players they called in for this camp are 25 or younger, including Davies, David and Buchanan, so this team still has plenty of growth left to come.
Because of that, it feels like this Canadian team should quickly get back on track, starting with a win in this game, allowing them to resume the rise they were on over the last few years.
Won't be a surprise to see Stephen Eustáquio wear the armband for the #CanMNT on Saturday, he's become a key leader on this team, isn't afraid to speak out, and wears his heart on his sleeve on the pitch
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) March 20, 2024
He'll look to lead this CanMNT side through a massive clash vs ๐น๐นnow https://t.co/Qmg6FYkmCK
Of course, a loss could quickly push them into a dark place, but given that they’ve lost just five times to Concacaf sides not named the US or Mexico since the start of 2019, a sample of over 35 games, they’ll feel that they’ve proven that they can take care of business in these sort of games, and will look to do so once again.
What to expect tactically?
If Canada are to win this game, however, they’ll have to get their tactics spot-on, as T&T have proven to be quite the organized unit under Eve.
Just take a look at their two-legged tie against the US, in which they split between defending in a 5-4-1, 5-3-2 and even a 4-4-2 depending on where the US was on the field, as seen by these shots.
(The 5-3-2 is above)
(The 5-4-1 is above)
(The 4-4-2 is above)
Through that, they did a good job of limiting some of the danger that the US can bring in the middle of the park, while providing the width to not get overloaded in those areas, either.
After bouncing through more of a 4-4-2 in their previous Nations League games, it was a big change, but one that paid off, as they were quite defensively solid across the tie, with three of the four goals they conceded coming when they went down to 10 players after a leg one red card.
Where they came up short, however, is offensively, as they generated just 0.64 xG across both legs, mustering only eight shots. They were efficient with those attempts, getting four of them on target and two in the goal, but they’ll feel that they could’ve sent more shots towards goal than they did.
Yet, that’s been a theme for this T&T side - across their League A campaign, which consists of four group stage games and the two US matches, they averaged just 1.2 xG for and 2.66 xG against, showing that they generate far less than they absorb.
Despite that, they scored an average of two actual goals a game, conceding 2.17, showing that they’re comfortable playing that way, knowing that they can score goals, only getting shut out in one of those six games (the game in which they went down to 10 players against the US).
Because of that, Canada will need to be wary of that T&T offensive threat, which mostly manifests itself via counter-attacks and set-pieces, as they turned 60% of their counters, 35.1% of their corners and 24.9% of their free kicks into shots, compared to just 20% of their positional attacks.
Therefore, when preparing to play this T&T team, Canada will have to be ready for them to be compact defensively, likely sticking with a 5-4-1 to counter Canada’s wide threat, with the intention of springing forward whenever possible, and then making the most of any set-pieces they win.
As for Canada, they should feel comfortable with the idea that they can score goals and generate chances, having scored four goals on 4.79 xG vs. Jamaica, but they’ll have to be wary defensively, especially given that they conceded four on just 2.61 xG, showing some defensive frailties in transition and aerially.
Yet, that’s what they’ll have to consider when it comes to their lineup selection. For example, based on recent matches, here’s what Canada would likely line up in for this game, assuming they go for a familiar and experienced group, lined up against an expected starting XI from T&T. 
Within that, however, there are a few areas of concern. For example, Kamal Miller and Alistair Johnston haven’t been the most proficient in the air for Canada, which is why putting them both in a back three could be a risk against a T&T side that’s good in that area of the game.
Then, at wing back, Tajon Buchanan and Alphonso Davies will likely be quite aggressive in attacking given that Canada will hold onto the ball a lot, which could leave some gaps. Of course, that’s where Samuel Piette could come in handy in midfield, but there would be a lot of pressure on him, Miller and Johnston in counter-attacks.
Lastly, up front, David and Larin could risk getting lost in the game in a front two, as T&T’s defenders did a good job of making things tough for the US’s Folarin Balogun in their matchup, limiting the touches he could receive into feet and on the turn, which is what David and Larin will want.
Therefore, when looking at that group, it could make sense to replace Johnston in the back three, especially with Miller taking a big step forward aerially this year (he’s won 10 out of 10 aerial duels with the Portland Timbers so far in 2024), pairing either a Moïse Bombito or Joel Waterman with the usual duo of Miller and Cornelius.
Then, to offer a bit more defensive solidity in the flanks, it could make sense to push Johnston up to wing back, pairing him with Davies on the left side, allowing Johnston to make the most of his skills as a player who can get forward and cross but also bring defensive cover on the flank.
From there, moving Buchanan up could give Canada a bit more speed centrally, something that could help stretch what is expected to be a compact T&T defence, which in theory could open up more space for a David and Larin to operate in.
Lastly, speaking of David, dropping into more of a #10 role, a position he played in the second leg against Jamaica, could make sense for him, further allowing him the chance to get on the ball and influence the game, instead of risking fading out with a lack of space on the pitch.
Of course, that’d leave Canada with one concern, as they’d have to likely go without a true #6, which could hurt them out of possession, but given T&T’s profile, that shouldn’t be an issue as long as Stephen Eustáquio and Ismaël Koné find a good balance between defending and attacking in a pivot, knowing that their team’s best attacks will likely come down the flanks, anyways. And if that midfield balance proves to be too much of a concern, Buchanan could be bumped down to a wing back role, and then Johnston could be replaced by a third midfielder, be it a natural #6 like Piette, or an #8 like Choinière with Eustáquio dropping in as the #6.
So overall, it’ll be interesting to see if Canada sticks with that approach, as it could give them the weapons to hurt T&T while still providing them balance in key areas where they’d need it, such as at the back and out wide.
If not, they could risk employing a strategy that plays right into the T&T’s hands, which the US did at times in their matchup, something that Canada will want to avoid doing given what’s at stake in this one-off game.
