PREVIEW: 1 KEY tactical question for each team ahead of Forge vs. Cavalry, Atlético Ottawa vs. York United playoff doubleheader
The rubber is about to hit the road.
After kicking things off with an intense and feisty clash between York United and Pacific in midweek, one that York won 2-0 thanks to second-half goals from Oswaldo Léon and Mo Babouli, the CPL playoffs are about to ramp up this weekend as a pair of massive games are on tap in Ontario on Sunday.
First, in the nation’s capital, Atlético Ottawa will host York United in an elimination quarter-final, with the winner advancing to the semi-final, and the loser heading home. After their last regular season meeting, which included a red card and a war of words between both managers after the game, this promises to be a spicy all-Ontario clash.
Then, a few hours later in Hamilton, two longtime rivals will face off in the latest chapter of their storied history, as CPL Shield winners Forge will host Cavalry at Tim Hortons Field in the playoff qualifying semi-final. In this one, no team will have to fear elimination, as the loser would face the winner of the Ottawa vs. York clash in the other semi-final, but there’s no doubt that both sides want to win - the winner of this match will advance straight to the CPL Field on November 9th, and they’d host that match, too.
Because of that, both matches are expected to be intense and hard-fought, and for good reason. When the stakes are high like this, teams will stop at nothing to try and win - just ask York and Pacific, who battled to the last minute of their game (and even a little bit after) to try and get a win.
And then there were four 👀
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) October 24, 2024
Here is the updated #CanPL playoff bracket! pic.twitter.com/7CnUM7TVQV
Yet, that’s the beauty of the playoffs. When silverware is on the line, teams tend to raise their performances and for good reason. Everyone wants to win the North Star Cup, but there can only be one winner, and teams are well aware of that.
With that in mind, here’s what each team will need to do if they’re to emerge victorious this weekend, either giving a huge boost to their title hopes (in the case of Forge and Cavalry) or keeping them alive (in the case of Ottawa and York).
Forge vs. Cavalry:
Forge will need to… figure out what to do at the #9
Starting in Hamilton, it’s only natural to focus on the defending North Star Cup champions and the recent CPL Shield winners, Forge, who enter these playoffs as the favourites to bring home a fifth North Star Cup in six seasons.
After a strong regular season campaign, it’s hard to bet against them, too - they enter the playoffs having led the league in wins (15), points (50), goals for (45) and goal difference (+14), and were second in goals against (31).
In particular, their dominance at home has been a big driving force behind their success - they picked up 11 of those 14 wins at Tim Hortons Field, going 11W-1D-2L (34 PTS) with 29 goals for and 12 goals against in those 14 matches.
Knowing that they can play the entire playoffs at home if they win this game, they’ll want to continue that home dominance in this one, and for good reason.
If they’re to do that, however, they’ll have to figure out what to do up front, as they’ve struggled to find a regular option at striker since Kwasi Poku was sold to Belgian club RWD Molenbeek back in August.
They’ve still found a way to score goals - they’ve found multiple goals in six of the 11 games they’ve played since Poku last featured. At the same time, they’ve also only scored 14 goals total across those 11 games, getting shut out four times - by comparison, they were shut out just three times in their first 17 games of the season, scoring 31 goals across that span.
A big reason for that? While Poku’s goalscoring itself has been missed, as he had eight goals, it’s his presence that was just as important to this attack.
With his speed, he helped stretch defences, which then opened up space for the likes of Tristan Borges (8G+6A), David Choinière (5G+5A), Béni Badibanga (4G+3A), Noah Jensen (6G+0A), and Kyle Bekker (2G+6A) to be more involved offensively underneath him.
Now, however, they lack that natural outlet up front, as their main other option, Jordan Hamilton, is more of a traditional #9, one that prefers to play with his back-to-goal. Unfortunately, that’s not meshed as well with Forge’s attacking style as much as Poku did, and Hamilton has struggled offensively because of that, sitting with just one goal and one assist in CPL play.
GOAL 🔨🔨
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 15, 2024
Jordan Hamilton makes it 2-0 for @ForgeFCHamilton vs. @HFXWanderersFC with effort that just got over the line 👀
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For what it’s worth, they do have some other options to try out. First, there’s Terran Campbell, who played just 300 minutes after dealing with an assortment of injuries, but appears to be healthy heading into the playoffs. Then, there’s Viktor Klonaridis, the veteran Greek striker who arrived this summer, although fitness remains a question mark for him heading into the postseason.
Both might not have the speed of a Poku, but they could offer something different from what they’ve had as of late, especially in terms of being an x-factor in the box, even if they both carry question marks about their fitness.
No matter what, however, Forge will have to figure out what their best solution is up front heading into this Cavalry match. Facing a Cavalry side that conceded the fewest goals (27) and xG (26.96) in the CPL (xG stats per WyScout), they’ll need to be clinical offensively to find goals against this Cavs team.
Do they roll with Hamilton and hope he finds an offensive explosion? Risk using Campbell or Klonaridis even if they might not be up to speed? Or try an alternative option such as speedier wingers like Choinière or a Nana Ampomah, trying to mimic what they were doing when Poku was with the club?
Each option carries different risks and rewards, so it’ll be interesting to see what Forge does, as it could dictate what they feel is their best approach toward scoring goals in the playoffs. 
Cavalry will need to… stay solid defensively
As mentioned earlier, Cavalry’s defensive numbers were quite impressive this season, as they conceded less than a goal a game in CPL regular season action, keeping eight clean sheets.
Heading into the playoffs, that’ll be something they want to build off of, as strong defensive teams always seem to do well in these games.
Against Forge, however, that will be easier said than done, as Cavalry learned through their four meetings this season. They managed to keep one of their eight clean sheets in their second matchup, but otherwise conceded five goals in the other three meetings, which is well above their season average.
At the same time, Cavalry will have reasons to believe they can return to their usual standard in this semi-final, and a big reason will be that their back line will be as healthy as it’s been in months. Other than Daan Klomp, who played 27 out of 28 matches (only missing one due to suspension), he’s had a rotating cast around him, as Tom Field played in 21 out of 28 games (1613 minutes), Bradley Kamdem played in 19 out of 28 games (1559 minutes), Callum Montgomery played in 21 out of 28 games (1126 minutes), and Eryk Kobza played in 18 out of 28 games (1032 minutes).
Cavalry FC defender Daan Klomp has been named the Canadian Premier League’s Player of the Month for August 2024 👏 pic.twitter.com/7CHhXGckRf
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) September 4, 2024
While it looks unlikely that Field will feature in this match as he missed out on Cavalry’s last game against Valour after picking up an injury the week prior, Kamdem and Montgomery both started that match, while Kobza came off the bench.
If possible, Cavalry might be eager to throw out a back five of Fraser Aird, Kobza, Klomp, Montgomery and Kamdem in this game, and at the very minimum will be eager to use all of Aird, Klomp, Montgomery and Kamdem, who started together last game, with Kobza’s starting ability depending on how fit he is as he continues to work back from injury.
Of course, it’s worth noting that Cavalry’s strong defensive record doesn’t just stem from their back line - they’re a team that defends as a unit, is strong in midfield, and has one of the best goalkeepers in Marco Carducci. They’ll need their overall group to be solid and prepared defensively, no matter who starts at the back.
But there’s also no doubt that their strong back line is a big catalyst for what they do both on and off the ball, so they’ll need that group to step up in a big way as they try and contain Forge’s dangerous attack, one that scored their 45 goals despite generating just 39.07 xG (which was good for 3rd in the CPL), showing how lethal they can be.
If Cavalry can keep them quiet, however, that’ll be huge, as they know their attack can score the goals they need to win this tie - that’s the beauty of having players like former Player’s Player of the Year Ali Musse and current Golden Boot winner Tobias Warschewski at one’s disposal. 
Atlético Ottawa vs. York United
Ottawa will need to… not sacrifice offence for defence (and vice versa).
Heading into these playoffs, it feels like there’s one key question surrounding this Ottawa team - what’s their best version of themselves?
They can be fun offensively at times - they scored three or more goals five times this season, but that offence can also dry up, as they were shut out three times, and scored just one goal in 12 other games.
Defensively, they’ve also been a mixed bag - they’ve racked up an impressive nine clean sheets, but also conceded two or more goals in a game seven times this season.
Yet, that shows why their identity is a big question heading into the postseason, as it’s hard to say what Ottawa’s best strategy is to employ going forward. Is it to sit deeper and hit on the counter? Or is it to play aggressively and on the front foot?
GOAL 🏠
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) May 25, 2024
HAVE A HIT, MANNY!@atletiOttawa take the lead at home against @ForgeFCHamilton as Manny Aparicio fires a beautiful shot past Chris Kalongo 🔥
Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer 🔴 pic.twitter.com/7GPDJfuqvH
Ultimately, the answer is probably somewhere in between. No doubt, this Ottawa team remains one that seems to feed off its own defensive play - this is a team built on that “Atlético DNA” employed by Atlético Madrid, after all.
At the same time, it feels like they’re too talented offensively to sit back and hit exclusively on the counterattack. Their 42 goals in 28 games only trailed Forge, and they racked up that 42 goals despite generating just 36.06 xG, which is fifth in the CPL - they’re talented enough to rack up the goals without needing to generate a boatload of chances.
Because of that, the key to success in this tie against York will be to find that sweet balance between attacking and defending. Against a York side that is strong at the back, it’ll be important that Ottawa pushes numbers forward and tries to break them down, but also remains defensively solid knowing the threats York can turn to on the counter.
As a result, look for them to stick with the 5-4-1 they’ve used in recent weeks, with Ilias Iliadis slotting in as a hybrid centre back - his presence in the back line seems to help strike a good balance, as he’s good on the ball but solid defensively. Along with pieces like Manny Aparicio, Matteo de Brienne and Aboubacar Sissoko, Ottawa will need all of them to play a big role on both sides of the ball if they’re to strike that balance.
Having entered this game with six draws in their last 10 games, Ottawa will know that defensively they can hold their own enough to give themselves a good chance no matter what happens, but finding some juice offensively will be key if they’re to win, showing the importance of finding that right balance tactically ahead of the match. 
York United will need to… be strong on set pieces
In big games, it’s always important to be solid on set pieces, as they can make a huge difference in key moments.
York proved that in their win over Pacific, scoring their opener on the second phase of a corner, with Juan Cordóva doing well to find Oswaldo Léon with a great cross for what ended up standing as the winner in the 46th minute.
Now, they’ll need to find a way to build off that, as against a team like Ottawa, who conceded the second-fewest goals (31) and conceded the second-lowest xG in the CPL (28.57), chances might be hard to come by in open play.
Of course, that’s easier said than done when looking at the players Ottawa can lean on defensively for those set pieces, led by Amer Didić, who is one of the best set-piece defenders in the league, if not the best.
But York are no slouches in the air, either. Léon has proven to be a good target, while Frank Sturing is a solid option at the back, and Brian Wright is another name to watch if he’s healthy and available after sitting as an unused sub in the Pacific match.
Along with the service that a Córdova and a Mo Babouli can provide, York should be able to at least put Ottawa under pressure with their offensive set-pieces, which can be valuable even if it doesn’t lead to any goals.
Yet, while offensive set-pieces could prove to be an area of surplus value for York in this game, it’s also worth noting that they’ll need their guys locked in on defensive set-pieces, too, as they’re going to need to be at their best to also keep Didić quiet (and not forget about guys like Manny Aparicio when doing so!).
GOAL 🦖@AtletiOttawa opens the scoring vs. @ForgeFChamilton as Manny Aparicio scores off a corner kick. Again. 😅
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 12, 2024
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Especially against an Ottawa team who can turn to Ollie Bassett, Manny Aparicio and Ilias Iliadis on set pieces, it can make them so tough to defend, as they have some dangerous targets to aim at.
Plus, just to add another layer to things, Bassett and Iliadis have also proven to be dangerous Olimpico threats, so it’s not as if York can just ask goalkeeper Thomas Vincensini to be more aggressive in the box - he’ll risk getting beat at his near post if he pushes out too far to help and defend Didić.
Because of that, York will need to be locked in defensively, as players will have to be in sync when it comes to zonal defending, and if they decide to use any sort of man-marking on Didić, that player will have to be equally as keyed into his assignment.
In what’s expected to be a cagey and physical game between two rivals, these dead-ball situations could prove to be a massive difference, at both ends, especially for a York team who might be physically and emotionally fatigued after their big win over Pacific in midweek. 
Those set pieces made the difference in that win over Pacific, and they’ll hope that they can do the same in this match.
For what it’s worth, York has proven they can be effective on dead balls against Ottawa - they scored twice on set pieces (once on a corner, the other a throw-in), in a 4-1 win back in July, something they’d love nothing more than to replicate this weekend.
GOAL 👑@yorkutdfc have tied things up! Elijah Adekugbe gets on the end of a perfect cross from debutant Jorge Guzmán to head the ball past Nathan Ingham ✨
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 26, 2024
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