MUST-WIN MATCH: Previewing CanMNT vs Cuba in Gold Cup

The task is straightforward for the Canadian men’s national team on Tuesday night: Win. Ideally, win by a lot.

They take on Cuba in the last of their three Concacaf Gold Cup group stage matches, where they find themselves facing possible elimination if they can’t get the job done in Houston. Canada haven’t missed the knockout round of the Gold Cup since the 2015 tournament, and John Herdman’s side will not want to reverse that trend.

In order to finish in the top two of Group D and get to the quarter-finals, Canada have no choice but to beat Cuba. With two draws in their first to group matches — 2-2 in Toronto against Guadeloupe and 0-0 in Houston against Guatemala — Canada enter this final matchday third in the group, two points back of both Guadeloupe and Guatemala.

Unfortunately, it’s possible that just beating Cuba may not be enough for Canada, who might need some help from elsewhere. The other Group D match — Guadeloupe vs. Guatemala — kicks off at the same time; if one of those two sides wins, then Canada can finish second with a win over Cuba.

However, if Guadeloupe and Guatemala draw, then goal difference comes into play. As it stands, Canada’s goal difference is zero with two draws. Guadeloupe and Guatemala, meanwhile, have both already beaten Cuba and therefore have goal differences of +3 and +1, respectively.

So: not knowing what’s going on in the simultaneous fixture, Canada will want to beat Cuba by at least two goals. If they beat them by four, there’s a chance they can actually win Group D should the other match end in a draw.

Awaiting in the knockout round will be the United States (if Canada finish second) or Jamaica (if Canada top the group).

The good news is that Canada have a strong history against Cuba. They played at the Gold Cup in 2019, where Canada won 7-0 thanks to hat-tricks from both Jonathan David and Lucas Cavallini. Canada again won a rout later that fall in the Nations League, when they beat Cuba 6-0 at BMO Field (Junior Hoilett being the hat-trick hero that time).

The most recent meeting was the third game between Canada and Cuba in 2019, when they met down in the Cayman Islands in a Nations League reverse fixture. That was a closer affair, but an early Alphonso Davies goal was still enough for a 1-0 Canadian win.

This Canadian squad is missing some of its starpower of course, and a lack of quality in the final third has been a major reason behind two disappointing draws to open the group stage. Herdman will likely turn to the likes of Liam Millar and Richie Laryea to provide some attacking impetus from the wings, as they did against Guadeloupe, hoping that one of Hoilett, Cavallini, or a younger attacker (Jacen Russell-Rowe, perhaps?) can convert chances.

With the pressure being so high in this game, it feels unlikely Canada make any significant changes to the squad, although a few personnel shifts may help them shore up certain areas of the pitch. The time certainly feels right for a Victor Loturi debut in the starting XI, with the Ross County midfielder being the most natural defensive midfield option in the squad. No matter what, expect Ali Ahmed to play a major role in midfield; he’s been perhaps the brightest spot in Canada’s tournament so far.

The only guaranteed change for Canada will be in goal: the team announced on Monday that Milan Borjan will miss the remainder of the tournament with injury. So, either Dayne St. Clair or Tom McGill will get the nod in goal, with the Minnesota United starter St. Clair seemingly the more likely candidate.

This kind of must-win game isn’t completely unfamiliar to Canada, who were in a similar position against Honduras in the Nations League group stage — and, of course, in the semifinal against Panama.

There’s enough talent in this Canada squad to get the job done on Tuesday and avoid a major disappointment at the Gold Cup. The question: Can they execute?

PROJECTED STARTING XIs

Canada: St. Clair; Laryea, Bombito, Vitória, Miller, Millar; Ahmed, Loturi, Osorio; Hoilett, Cavallini

Cuba: Arozarena; Perez, Mendez, Cavafe, Corrales; Matos, Pietra, Pozo-Venta, Hernandez; Paradela, Reyes

ALL-TIME SERIES

Canada wins: 9 || Cuba wins: 2 || Draws: 3

Previous meeting:

September 10, 2019 — Cuba 0-1 Canada

MATCH OFFICIALS