MATCH PREVIEW: What must CanMNT do to defeat Venezuela in Copa America? | VAMOS! Presented by Degree

The CanMNT are gearing up for a massive clash this week, as they get set to take on Venezuela in their Copa América quarter-final matchup at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Friday. 

One of their biggest matches of the last few years, rivalled only by their 2022 World Cup opener vs. Belgium, their 2023 Concacaf Nations League final vs the US, and their decisive 2022 World Cup qualifier vs Jamaica, this game could prove to be massive for this Canadian program, for many reasons. 

Win, and they’ll be able to say they finished in the top four at Conmebol’s marquee international tournament, all while guaranteeing two more massive matches by playing in a semi-final and either the final or third-place match of this tournament, which would be huge for this team as they prepare for the 2026 World Cup. 

And even if they lose, they’ll at least have gotten a good taste of what high-level knockout soccer can look like, having only tasted it in Concacaf with the Nations League and Gold Cup, which while still important, doesn’t quite compare to what a tournament like Copa América can offer. 

As Canada has quickly learned in their maiden Copa América voyage, a tournament like this isn’t only a high-level soccer spectacle, featuring some teams who are among the best in the world, but also a tournament where everyone is willing to sacrifice everything to win, making it a playground where only the strongest survive. 

The #CanMNT 🇨🇦 will face Venezuela🇻🇪 in their Copa América QF at AT&T Stadium on Friday, July 5th

🇨🇦edges🇻🇪 in the FIFA Rankings (#48 to #54), but 🇻🇪has the edge in Elo rating (#21 to #32) and got 9/9 pts in Group B

The 🇨🇦/🇻🇪winner will play Argentina🇦🇷or Ecuador🇪🇨 in the SFs

— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) July 1, 2024

So far, some of Concacaf’s best and most dominant sides, the US and Mexico, were unable to handle that grind and exited early - for reference, those two have won every Gold Cup and Nations League title since the 1990s, barring Canada’s surprise Gold Cup win in 2000. 

That just gives an idea of why this Copa América test was so crucial for Canada, and why it’s so important that they’ve reached the knockout rounds, giving them more time to enjoy the pressure cooker this tournament is. 

Now, they’ll look to extend that journey with a win, but they’ll know that no matter what happens, this has been a good ride, one that they’ve learned plenty from. 

With that in mind, here’s everything you need to know about this match, as Jesse Marsch’s side gets set for another huge game, continuing his busy first full month in charge of this Canadian team. 

Is it all lining up for Venezuela?

For all of the talented players Venezuela has had in their ranks over the years, from Juan Arango to Fernando Amorebieta, two things have eluded them in their history - qualification for the World Cup, and a Copa América triumph. 

As a result, they’re the lone of the 10 Conmebol members to have never played at a men’s World Cup (everyone else in the region has been to at least three), and are one of just two Conmebol teams to have never won a Copa América, having never even made the final of this tournament, making the final four just once back in 2011. 

Because of that, this is seen as a massive cycle for this Venezuelan team, led by Argentine manager, Fernando Batista, who was hired in March of 2023 to lead them into these crucial few years for the program. 

With the expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams, which gave Conmebol 6.5 spots at the 2026 World Cup after having 4.5 for the last few cycles, they’ve got increased odds of reaching that tournament, ramping up the pressure for them to make their first appearance. 

So far, they’ve put themselves in a good position to get the job done in World Cup qualifying, too, as they currently sit in 4th place with nine points after the first six games, amassing an impressive record of 2W-3D-1L. With two-thirds of the games remaining, they’ll look to see that job over the line and break their World Cup duck over the next few years. 

Then, in terms of this Copa América, they’ve put themselves in a pretty good position to go on a deep run this year, which will only help them in their World Cup aspirations (especially if they win it all this year). Having flown through the group stages with three wins in three games, getting out of a tough group with Ecuador, Mexico and Jamaica without much trouble, they enter this quarter-final filled with confidence, and deservedly so. 

VENEZUELA IS ON THE BOARD

Salomón Rondón find the back of the net on the penalty. #CA2024 pic.twitter.com/W5uD1mfDYg

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 27, 2024

Especially as they prepare to face an inexperienced Canadian side in this matchup, they’ll enter this game as favourites to advance to the semi-finals, as they look to reach that stage for the second time in their history. 

Safe to say, if they can get that over the line, and then continue their magic in World Cup qualifying, that’ll be huge for this team, showing why this game is so big for them, too, one that could help define this cycle for Batista. 

Venezuela expected to bring defensive, direct play:

Returning to Batista, however, leads to the next big question - how will this Venezuelan side play against Canada, and what have they done well under his tutelage so far this tournament?

And the answer is a few things, highlighted by one key principle - defensive structure. 

Having allowed just one goal in three games this Copa América, and just three goals in six World Cup qualifying games, this Venezuelan side can grind out games thanks to their ability to sit back and defend.

Usually set-up in a 4-2-3-1 off the ball (although they can sometimes use a 4-3-3 or a 4-4-2) they have conservative full backs who don’t like to push up the field, a centre back pair that doesn’t mind sitting back, and an elite midfield double pivot led by José Martínez and Yangel Herrera, with all of that serving as the main pillars of their defensive game. 

Thanks to the work of that back six, they do a lot of the heavy lifting defensively, dominating central areas while keeping the flanks shut, freeing up their front four to focus on generating chances to score. 

Speaking of that front four, they then use a pretty simple formula to get them involved - send a lot of long balls toward their hulking #9, Salomón Rondón, who is Venezuela’s all-time top goalscorer with 42 goals in 107 caps, and remains the team’s offensive heartbeat at 34 years of age. Through his strong hold-up play and physicality, he’s then able to get the other attackers involved, such as the tricky Yeferson Soteldo, Cristian Cásseres, Eduard Bello, Darwin Machís and Jhonder Cádiz. 

VENEZUELA MAKES IT A 2-0 GAME!#CA2024 pic.twitter.com/hoshIzpbqh

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) July 1, 2024

They’ll be without Machís in this game, which is a blow as the Cádiz winger is the fourth most capped player in this squad and the lone attacker not named Rondón with double-digit goals for Venezuela (11), with the next best attacker being Soteldo and Bello at four goals apiece, so look for them to employ a three of Soteldo, Cásseres and Bello underneath Rondón, completing their attacking group. 

There, they’ve got some stylistic differences, as Soteldo loves to cut inside from the left to try and create a moment of magic through crosses and shots, Cásseres will operate centrally as more of a #8 than a #10, while Bello likes to attack his full back and push up the field. 

Within that group, however, their goal is pretty simple, as outlined above - try and find Rondón as often as possible, and be ready to play off him when he receives the ball. 

To get an idea of how they’ll set-up, here’s what their lineup for this game will probably end up looking like.  Some other notes are that Venezuela doesn’t hold a lot of the ball, averaging 45% of possession in their last nine competitive games, and completing an average of 81% of their passes, showing how direct they can be when attacking. That’s paid off for them - in those nine games, they’ve averaged 1.33 goals per game and have conceded just 0.44 per game, and their underlying numbers are pretty solid, as they’ve generated 1.39 xG and allowed 1.11 xG (WyScout), which are both solid numbers. 

So overall, it’s worth noting that Batista has them defending well, but they can still hurt teams offensively, with this group stage performance being a perfect example of what that looked like given that they outscored opponents 6-1 en route to their first-place Group B finish. 

And that’ll give them a chance of going deep in this tournament, as strong defensive teams will always have a chance of winning knockout games, especially those who can pop up with timely goals as Venezuela has done lately. 

Canada looking to maintain solid backline, find offensive spark:

Shifting to Canada, they’re still working on finding their perfect tactical formula, as they continue to find their feet under Marsch, having only played five games under their new manager. 

So far, they’ve learned a lot about what they can be at their best, but have also learned a lot about what they need to do to be at their best more consistently.

To be fair, they’ve done one thing quite well this tournament, and that’s to defend, allowing just two goals in three games, both coming in a 2-0 loss to favourites Argentina in their opener, as they followed that up with consecutive clean sheets against Peru and Chile. 

They did spend 31 minutes of their Peru match and 63 minutes of their Chile match up a player, which helped them, no doubt, but given that they’ve now kept clean sheets in eight of their 10 halves under Marsch, which included matches against the Netherlands, France and Argentina, it’s also safe to suggest they’ve been good defensively under their new head coach. 

Deployed in a classic Red Bull 4-2-2-2, a hallmark of Marsch’s from his time in the Red Bull system, Canada has done well to stay compact and organized defensively, limiting spaces between the lines. But that doesn’t mean they sit back and defend, either - they’re comfortable setting a high line of defensive engagement and pressing when the opportunity presents itself, as they’re not sitting back and letting the game come to them. 

The #CanMNT have scored just once in the 2024 Copa America... any concerns as they go through the tournament? 🇨🇦

▶️ Watch 𝙑𝘼𝙈𝙊𝙎! Presented by @Degree pic.twitter.com/YNhSzsWUt6

— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 30, 2024

By making sure they limit space between their front two and back four, they dare teams to beat them with direct play, which they’ve so far mostly been up to the task of doing thanks to their speedy back line and aggressive goalkeeper, Maxime Crépeau, with their second half against Argentina the lone blip in that regard. 

But for as good as they’ve been defensively under Marsch, they’re still finding their way offensively, having scored just one goal in five games, which came against Peru once they were down a player. 

For what it’s worth, they’ve not been as poor offensively as those numbers suggest, as they’ve generated just under five xG across Marsch’s five games in charge, including 3.46 xG (WyScout) in their three Copa América games. That’s not elite, but it’s not poor, as it shows that they’ve also been let down by some poor finishing as much as a lack of chances when it comes to looking at why they’ve only scored one goal. 

This is what you want from Jonathan David in these games. Top-class finish from someone who needed that, as he'd had 1 goal in his last 8 appearances for the #CanMNT

And Jacob Shaffelburg... might this have been enough to earn him a start on Saturday?pic.twitter.com/dbD3U60VEc

— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) June 25, 2024

Not only that, it shows that they need to improve their attacking volume, too. Among the 16 teams in the Copa América, they’re third in xG per shot despite being ninth in total xG (WyScout), showing that they’re doing a good job of finding quality looks, but they’re not shooting enough, often looking for the perfect play. 

Armed with strong wide players and good strikers, they’ve got the pieces to be dangerous offensively, but are struggling to find the right formula to get those players more active in games. In particular, a big focus for Canada will be getting Jonathan David involved, as he scored their lone goal despite having just three shots in the group stages, and could stand to do some damage given that he has 27 goals in 51 caps for Canada and has scored 52 goals across his last two seasons for Lille. 

Perhaps, the best way to do that may be for Marsch to tweak things tactically, inserting another creative player underneath David instead of sticking with his preferred attacking partnership of David alongside Cyle Larin, who is a lethal finisher who leads the CanMNT all-time with 29 goals, but has scored just once in his last 11 games. Given that their partnership usually pushes David to drop deeper, getting David back up the pitch could be a way to get him more touches in the box, thus allowing him to shoot more. 

Otherwise, the big thing to watch will be out wide and in the middle for Canada. The back four looks set in stone, but after rotating Liam Millar, Jacob Shaffelburg, Richie Laryea and Tajon Buchanan in the four wide spots through three games, the question will be to see which of the two ends up starting, especially after Buchanan was ruled out for the rest of this tournament (and the next four to six months) with a fractured tibia. 

Then, in the midfield, will Marsch return to the pivot of Stephen Eustáquio and Ismaël Koné, having left the talented Koné out of Canada’s last 145 minutes of the group stage, or stick with the pair of Eustáquio and Jonathan Osorio? Or could we see all three play together, with Osorio pushing up to play as more of a #10 underneath David, giving him the creative outlet he’s lacked?

With that in mind, here are a couple of different looks Marsch might go with, with the left one being a lineup closer to what he’s done so far, and the right one being one that addresses some of the issues they’ve faced to date.

Therefore, while you can write eight or so of the starters with a pen, Marsch faces some unique questions when filling the last few spots, as he looks to give his team the offensive jolt they need without sacrificing what’s worked for them defensively. 

How will both match up?

Now, the big question will be how both teams match up with each other, as their styles could lead to an interesting clash.

For example, Canada’s high line might cause trouble for Venezuela, who lack the speed to get in behind, especially with Machís’s suspension, so look for them to limit space for Rondón by pressing on him every time he receives the ball. 

Conversely, Venezuela’s conservative defensive approach could cause fits for Canada, who struggle to break down low blocks, which is why they generated 1.5 xG against a more aggressive Argentina, a number they barely managed to beat in 180 minutes combined against two more defensive sides in Peru and Chile, even despite the red cards, as they had 1.96 xG across those two games. With a lack of true #10 on the field, they’ve struggled to find that killer pass needed to break down those low blocks, which puts the pressure on their wide players to find the perfect cross. 

Elsewhere, Venezuela will look to use their muscle in midfield, as their duo of Martínez and Herrera is among the best in the tournament, and they could stand to receive help from Cásseres if he starts, as he can sometimes drop back to make it a midfield trio. For a Canadian side that has struggled to generate chances from central areas, that increases the need to push for a third midfielder in attack, or else, it’s expected that Venezuela’s midfield may end up feasting on them defensively. 

A key note, however, is that Venezuela have also allowed the third-most xG per shot in the Copa América, showing that there are some defensive vulnerabilities, but they don’t often come from the central areas. 

Speaking of those vulnerable areas, however, a key matchup to watch is on the flanks, because while Venezuela’s full backs are quite conservative, their wingers aren’t the most defensive. That means that if Canada can push their full backs like Alphonso Davies and Alistair Johnston forward, they can create some wide overloads against Venezuela’s full backs, which may allow Canada to get into some more dangerous wide positions, which will give them a better chance of filtering the ball into the box. Lastly, one key factor to note is that this game will go directly to penalties after 90 minutes, which benefits Canada, who can employ their aggressive style of play without worrying that they might burn out in extra time if they reach the end of regular time still tied.

That may be a small factor, but against a Venezuelan side comfortable in sitting back and absorbing pressure, a longer match could’ve been to their advantage. 

Yet, as all of these factors show, this game is expected to be a tightly-contested matchup, one that will likely be decided by key moments and matchups, as it’s hard to suggest there’s a clear runaway favourite, even if Venezuela will be designated as the side more likely to win.