PRE-GAME: CanMNT eyeing shot at regional crown in Concacaf Nations League semi-final vs. Mexico
A hostile environment awaits the Canadian men's national team in Los Angeles on Thursday night, when Jesse Marsch's side step out at SoFi Stadium to battle Mexico in the Concacaf Nations League semi-final.
Despite ample buzz in the lead-up to this week surrounding a potentially politically-charged final showdown with the United States, a mountainous hurdle stands in Canada's way. Mexico, historically the giants of Concacaf, have their sights set on the same prize as Canada: a trophy, and their first ever Nations League title. With a heavily pro-Mexico crowd expected in the building on Thursday, Canada find themselves walking into the lion's den once more.
Both teams are champing at the bit for an opportunity to win this competition and knock the U.S. off their perch, with the Americans having triumphed all three previous finals (two against Mexico and one against Canada). Of course, Panama will have their say against the U.S. in the other semi-final on Thursday, but nonetheless Les Rouges and El Tri will be similarly desperate for a win in this match.
Canada currently find themselves unbeaten in three straight games against Mexico, most recently playing to a 0-0 draw in September's friendly in Texas. The last competitive meeting between these sides was Canada's 2-1 World Cup Qualifying win in Edmonton's frigid Commonwealth Stadium back in 2021. However, history does still loom over Canada, in the fact that they haven't beaten Mexico in a knockout match since 2000 -- which, auspiciously, was a quarter-final in Canada's Gold Cup-winning campaign, the last time the men's national team lifted a trophy (also in California, ironically).
With Mexico currently ranked 19th and Canada 31st, this is the closest the two countries have ever been in the FIFA World Rankings. While the Mexicans find themselves at their lowest point since 2016, Canada sit higher than they ever have.
Javier Aguirre leads his Mexico side into what he's hoping can be a redemptive 2025. He took over as head coach for the third time in his career last July, replacing the sacked Jaime Lozano after Mexico's group stage exit at the 2024 Copa América. With silverware available in both the Nations League and Gold Cup this year, Aguirre has his eyes on both trophies as he -- much like Marsch and Canada -- prepares his squad for a home World Cup next summer.
El Tri arrive in California with considerable pressure after last year's disappointing results, and some corners of the Mexican press have expressed their doubts over whether their team is up to the challenge. That said, it's still a team with considerable pedigree and international experience.
Aguirre did choose to bring a few younger players with his squad, including uncapped Club América defender Ramón Juárez and 21-year-old Copenhagen full-back Rodrigo Huescas, but this group also features talents like Genoa centre-back Johan Vásquez, West Ham United midfielder Edson Álvarez, and a wealth of options up front.
The main questions Aguirre has faced in the lead-up to Thursday have concerned the number nine position. Raúl Jiménez is enjoying a resurgent season in the English Premier League with Fulham, scoring 12 goals in all competitions, while Santiago Giménez -- 10 years his junior -- has hit the ground running since his transfer from Feyenoord to AC Milan in January. Aguirre suggested Tuesday that he prefers not to play with two strikers, and reports from Mexico indicate it will be Fulham's Jiménez starting against Canada.
Meanwhile, César Montes is suspended following Mexico's Nations League quarter-final tie against Honduras, with Juárez rumoured to make his senior debut in Montes' place at centre-back.
Canada's potential lineup is somewhat easier to predict; Marsch has already confirmed roughly half of his XI, with a back four of Alistair Johnston, Moïse Bombito, Derek Cornelius and Alphonso Davies, as well as Stephen Eustáquio in midfield and both Jonathan David and Cyle Larin up front.
Dayne St. Clair is the likely starter in goal, having played three of the last four under Marsch, while Maxime Crépeau has been struggling with injury at club level. Marsch's toughest decisions to make, then, will be in midfield, particularly the central spot next to Eustáquio. Mathieu Choinière was the choice in Canada's last match against Suriname, but he's not at top match fitness after an injury. Ismaël Koné was the usual preferred option duing Copa América, and the ever-reliable Jonathan Osorio could also be called upon in the middle.
A potential wild card in all this is Niko Sigur, who can play a variety of positions and, given his club form with Hajduk Split, could be in line for a big role -- Marsch mentioned last week that Sigur may even be an option to start. If so, he could line up centrally with Eustáquio, or out wide on the right side. He'd be competing with Tajon Buchanan for that spot and could get the nod because of Buchanan's limited playing time recently.
On the left, Ali Ahmed is the most probable starter for Canada, given his excellent form to start the year with Vancouver Whitecaps and Jacob Shaffelburg's recent return from injury. Shaffelburg, who got his first minutes of 2025 last weekend, is more likely to be deployed off the bench.
Thursday will be far from a walk in the park for Canada, who are considered slight underdogs -- but perhaps the closest they've ever been to favourites in a game against Mexico, especially in an environment that favours El Tri. When these sides drew 0-0 in September it was an ugly, foul-heavy affair, which prevented Canada from playing the transitional attacking football they wanted.
It's not the first time Canada have played in a hostile atmosphere, though -- they had plenty of experience with that at Copa América. If they can stick to their game without allowing Mexico to throw them off or get under their skin, they have the quality to win.
For a while, Canadians have had one eye on the 2026 World Cup, and for a few weeks now they've had one on a matchup with the U.S. For Thursday, however, they need their focus to be fully on Mexico, and on securing one more famous win under Jesse Marsch.
PROJECTED LINEUPS
Canada: St. Clair; Johnston, Bombito, Cornelius, Davies; Sigur, Koné, Eustáquio, Ahmed; Larin, David
Mexico: Malagón; Huescas, Juárez, Vásquez, Gallardo; Lira, Ed. Álvarez; Huerta, Pineda, Alvarado; Jiménez
ALL-TIME SERIES
Canada wins: 4 || Mexico wins: 19 || Draws: 7
Last meeting:
Sept. 10, 2024 -- Mexico 0-0 Canada (International Friendly)
KEY QUOTES
"I believe strongly that this game is going to test us in a massive way. I want to see that our team’s ready, that our team can still set the tone and has respect for Mexico, but really goes after the game. It has the potential to be a real heavyweight fight, and in that sense I’m really excited about what the possibilities of the game will be. I’m excited to see our team play." -- Canada head coach Jesse Marsch
"We played against them not long ago. It was a fast, strong game. Jesse is a very good coach, he has turned it around and the man knows his business. Canada has many scorers in Europe playing at a good level. They are a very complicated opponent. They have a very potent shot and they have some offensive transitions that you have to be very alert about. It's not the same Canada we've been talking about for years, no. It's a very respected rival. We're focused on this, we don't think beyond those 90 minutes." -- Mexico head coach Javier Aguirre
