Jacob Shaffelburg, CanMNT starter or the ultimate super-sub? Here's what the numbers say
There’s a lot of hype around Jacob Shaffelburg right now – justifiably so, if you're a Canada fan watching the 2024 Copa America.
But his legend seems to extend far beyond Canadian borders:
🫡 x 🌊🛝
— Nashville SC (@NashvilleSC) June 10, 2024
Hany Mukhtar and Jacob Shaffelburg both have Top 13 selling jerseys in MLS
His stock is so high right now that the once tongue-in-cheek 'Maritime Messi' (or Gareth Bale, take your pick) moniker is starting to earn merit – it helps that he's gone toe-to-toe against the Argentine icon for both club and country and showed well in both games... so much so, that fans have called for him to start for Jesse Marsch's side.
If he's this good coming off the bench, wouldn't he be this good from the start of the match?
But starting ahead if Internazionale's Tajon Buchanat naturally illicits mixed feelings. Don't get me wrong: I like Jacob Shaffelburg. I like his directness. I like that he has the pace to play with that directness and I like how his mullet matches his Nashville kit, now sitting happily in closets across the continent.
On the other hand, he hasn’t always started for Nashville... and it’s hard to argue he’s tearing up MLS in Nashville, either. He has a goal and 2 assists in 15 appearances, competing with the likes of Tyler Boyd and Alex Muyl for playing time. And that kind of variance – between brilliant Shaff and relatively uninvolved Shaff – is prime for questions about who the real Shaff is.
Is he the archetypal super-sub you bring on against tired legs? Or is he really destined for bigger things?
Making Sense of Jacob Shaffelburg
Now this would be the part where I’d insert an FBref chart and get into the weeds of his profile... but FBref has Shaffelburg as a wing-back, even though he’s played as a winger fairly often. It messes up his graph so much that I won’t even bother pasting it here. We’re going with vibes and video instead. You don’t need video evidence to convince you that Shaff is one of the fastest players on a Canadian team ripe with ridiculous pace, but here it is for your own enjoyment:
And this one:
He’s so plainly fast and gifted that it startled me how his numbers don’t back it all up. His progressive carries per 90 are above league average, and as an occasional wing-back, he does start from deeper positions. But those numbers (3.3 progressive carries per 90 minutes to be precise) are not elite, per se. They’re not even in the MLS’ upper echelon. A lot of those accelerations, in fact, are runs into empty space.
That isn’t to say Shaff is unambitious. He takes defenders on, and over the course of a match, he’ll probably end up leaving someone in the dust. But Nashville fans will universally warn you that he can fall into lengthy uneventful stretches. He takes defenders on, but he actually comes out on the losing end the majority of the time.
Maybe the strangest thing about Shaffelburg, though, is his bizarre aversion to passing – ordinary, every day 'Hey, I can’t do anything with the ball, I’d better pass it,' passing. I said I wouldn’t glue an ill-fitting chart up in here, but… just look.
Sure, it’s weighed against full-backs, who are obligated to be less ambitious. Yes, the red bars would be a little more filled in if FBref let him be a winger. But... jeez. That’s pretty extreme. He has that acute case of Tani-itus where he likes holding onto the ball unless he can do something brilliant with it. His expected assists are not nearly so deep in the red, and if he can get himself into the final third, he’ll cross the ball. A lot. But I think the peculiarities in his game are real. And it’s important to remember that, even while his stock is soaring.
Profile of a super-sub
The cheeky remark you always hear about super-subs is that super-subs would rather not be super-subs. But maybe some players are genuinely suited for it: Maybe some players are at their best when they arrive in the middle of the action. It’s the sort of thing that’s difficult to prove, but if someone wanted to, the way to do it would be to check whether super-sub Shaffelburg outperforms starter Shaffelburg in take-ons on a minute-by-minute graph.
My gut says he does, because mine eyes have seen the glory a few too many times. That time:
GOLAZO 🇨🇦 😭 🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 10, 2023
NOVA SCOTIA, STAND UP FOR YOUR BOY ✨
IT'S JACOB SHAFFELBURG 😎#CANMNT 2-1 #USMNT
WHAT. A. GOAL. 💥 pic.twitter.com/P8OqvQe6oZ
And that time:
GOAL 🇨🇦🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) March 23, 2024
JACOB SHAFFELBURG, THE PRIDE OF NOVA SCOTIA, MAKES IT 2-0 FOR THE #CANMNT AND WE ARE (pretty much) GOING TO THE 2024 COPA AMERICA 😎 pic.twitter.com/4jOY0ecYdD
And too many other times in too many other clips we don’t have access to, including his performances against Argentina and Peru. It makes sense, intuitively, that a guy blessed with exceptional pace might simply skip around tired defenders when given the chance.
And I think that’s the closest thing to an all-encompassing theory of Jacob Shaffelburg that I can muster. He’s a very exciting physical specimen who hasn’t yet demonstrated an ability to make that translate into something tangible over 90 minutes. Better data pending, I do buy into his ability to turn on the afterburners and punch above his weight as a substitute.
How can you not?
