How the CanMNT will look to use Canadian Shield, Gold Cup to push attack to next level
It can be simplistic to say, but it’s important to remember - goals win games.
To live by that tagline alone would be dangerous - soccer is a complex sport that requires teams to put their focus in several areas of the game, from understanding team formations and off-the-ball movement to possession play and much more. Because of that, focusing solely on scoring goals is a dangerous exercise.
Good teams find a way to combine all aspects of the game into one - typically, the best offensive teams know how to turn defence into offence, as they can use lethal counter-attacks and a high press to supplement the work they do on the ball, while good defensive teams are usually pretty good at attacking - it’s easier to defend when not being under siege all game long, after all.
For the Canadian Men’s National Team, they’re continuing to put all of the pieces of their tactical identity together under head coach Jesse Marsch, who is getting set for a big summer ahead, starting with a pair of friendlies in the Canadian Shield this week, and leading into the Gold Cup.
There, it feels like the CanMNT has one big goal - ironically, it’s to score more… goals. The numbers speak for themselves - Canada have scored just 14 times under Marsch, and although those numbers are heavily impacted by the fact that they scored just twice in their first seven games with Marsch in charge, it still feels like Canada has another level to hit offensively.
Certainly, it felt like that in March, when Canada took on Mexico in the Concacaf Nations League semi-finals. In one of their biggest games under Marsch, as they looked to snap their 25-year trophy drought by winning the Nations League, they were shut out in a 2-0 loss, generating just nine shots, with only one reaching the target, despite trailing for most of the match.
Heading into the World Cup next summer, that’s something to watch - you aren’t going to grind through many tournaments by constantly fighting for 0-0 draws, especially not against the top teams in the world.
Canada did well to reach the semi-finals of the 2024 Copa América despite their offensive struggles, as they got out of the group stage despite scoring just once, and then squeaked through the quarter-finals on penalties after a 1-1 draw, in large part thanks to their defensive play. At the same time, one can only imagine that the journey could’ve been a bit more comfortable had they been more dangerous offensively, helping support the work they did defensively.
Speaking of the defence, it’s important not to minimize how important Canada’s growth in that area has been. What was once perceived as a big weakness heading into the 2022 World Cup is now a strength, as they’ve conceded just 16 times across the last 15 games, conceding two or more goals just five times, and three or more goals just once (coming in their debut under Marsch vs. the Netherlands).
Yet, that’s why Canada must find their goalscoring shoes. Heading into next summer, they’ve now got the foundation to give them a shot at winning against top teams, thanks to Marsch’s defensive system and the emergence of some new players - and the Copa América proved that.
Now, with the Canadian Shield and the Gold Cup on the horizon, they’ve got the chance to work out how to get the most out of their offence, and more specifically, how they attack in open play (set pieces are also important, but we broke those down in a recent edition of 'The Breakdown'). 
That open play point is key, because for all of Canada’s struggles in the attack, they’ve done a great job of pressing teams and using that to score goals in trademark Red Bull fashion - something we broke down last fall. That won’t go away anytime soon under Marsch, with pressing being the biggest pillar of his team’s tactical identity, one that drives a lot of what they do on both sides of the ball.
What’s happened, however, is that teams are realizing that it can be better to let Canada have the ball to try and nullify that press, and instead dare them to break them down on the ball. Mexico employed this strategy very successfully in the semi-finals, keeping just 41.91% of possession, as they let Canada have the ball, and didn’t play into their press.
Despite that, Canada wasn’t able to capitalize on that, as they generated just 0.76 xG from the nine shots they took, with just three of them being worth more than 0.1 xG - a 0.13 xG effort from Jonathan David in the 13th minute, a 0.15 xG effort from Cyle Larin in the 53rd minute and a 0.30 xG effort from Moïse Bombito in the 93rd minute. 
Canada's shot map from their match vs. Mexico (SofaScore)
Seeing that, it won’t be surprising to see more teams employ a similar strategy going forward, unless Canada starts becoming more dangerous from those situations.
When diving into the macro numbers under Marsch, however, it’s worth pondering - are there any key red flags that stand out?
Naturally, the big one is that Mexico match aside, Canada have mostly done a good job of generating xG, as they’ve underperformed their xG by over five goals, showing that finishing has been a big issue (more on that shortly). Unfortunately, when looking at the xG numbers from a game-to-game basis, Canada does have a habit of being a bit ‘boom or bust’ - they have six games with fewer than 0.85 xG, but then have seven games with more than 1.5 xG.
To that point, however, it’s also worth noting that Canada doesn’t generate a ton of shot volume, as they’ve averaged around 10 shots per game. When calculating on an xG per shot basis, that means they average about 0.14 xG per shot, which isn’t that bad.
What that shows, though, is that they’re maybe being a bit too safe with their shooting opportunities, waiting for the perfect shot. While that’s not a bad idea in theory, it can be easy to defend, as you need to have some unpredictability in your shot selection, something Brentford’s Thomas Frank did a good job of explaining recently.
Thomas Frank reveals the only time you should take long shots 🤔 pic.twitter.com/YP2s4WNmvn
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) October 29, 2024
Of course, there’s a balance to find, as Frank says - it’s not to suggest one should be firing shots at will, as there’s no reason to take a 30-yard weak foot swing when better options are available, but it’s not bad for Canada if Ismaël Koné is firing a 25 yard rocket on his strong foot, or if one of their wingers like Ali Ahmed, Jacob Shaffelburg or Tajon Buchanan are cutting inside onto their preferred foots and curling shots towards goal.
WOW 🤩
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) March 30, 2025
Ismaël Koné with a BANGER 💥#CanMNT | 🎥 @DAZN_CA pic.twitter.com/v45Qj8EiXP
Provided those aren’t the only chances they create, that balance can be key, and will open up more high xG chances for the guys they want to have them, such as Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and their other forwards.
They’re getting to the right areas of the pitch - they’re averaging five more passes into the final third, almost one more smart pass (‘a pass that attempts to break the opposition's defensive lines to gain a significant advantage in attack’), and four more positional attacks than their opponents, which isn’t insignificant.
To further prove the point that they might be a bit shy with their shots is that they’re taking their shots from a distance of around 16.86 yards, which is excellent in isolation, but ideally, Canada maintains an average shot distance like that while firing the ball 12-15 times a game.
All of that ties into the idea that Canada has struggled to break down low blocks, as teams also know that if they protect their box, that’ll increase their chances of winning. Another way to fix that, beyond shot selection, is movement in the box - Canada have been guilty of being too static in central areas in some games under Marsch, such as against Mexico. 
Canada's crosses (top) and final third entries (bottom) against Mexico, as they struggled to get the ball into dangerous areas (WyScout)
To help change that, it’ll be important that their forwards make more runs in behind the defence, and vary their approach for crosses, while the midfielders and weakside wide players will also look to crash the box with more regularity to give their teammates more options.
Returning to Canada’s finishing, that raises another question - what’s happening there? The answer is that David has been doing the heavy lifting, scoring six goals and adding three assists, but beyond him, the goals have been a lot harder to come by.
GOLAZO 🇨🇦🇨🇦
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) March 23, 2025
THIS IS WHY JONATHAN DAVID IS ONE OF THE BEST STRIKERS IN THE WORLD 💥#CanMNT up 2-1 over the #USMNT at the hour-mark ✨
🔴 Watch on OneSoccer & @TSN_Sports pic.twitter.com/xMDR2tTwZX
Not only that, but David is doing a good job of finishing, too, as his six goals have come on just over 4 xG. What that shows, however, is that Canada has generated around 16 xG for players not named David, which has yielded just eight goals, which is quite remarkable. To get an idea where that xG is coming from, Cyle Larin has just one goal on 3.5 xG, Tani Oluwaseyi has one goal on 3.1 xG, while Jacob Shaffelburg has four goals on 2.5 xG - they make up most of that 16 xG, with the rest mostly coming from midfielders such as Koné, Stephen Eustáquio and Jonathan Osorio, and being rounded off by other contributions.
What that shows, however, is that Canada’s goalscoring woes might also be massively helped by figuring out which striker pairs best with David, both in terms of ensuring he gets more dangerous chances, as well as being capable of finishing on their own.
SO CLOSE, TANI 😭
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) November 16, 2024
Tani Oluwaseyi nearly celebrated his 1st #CanMNT goal... and, instead, gets to hear the reverb of both posts as the ball refuses to cross the line 🥲 pic.twitter.com/nsyGIIOESl
So far, Larin has mostly been paired with David, and as the numbers show, is getting into good areas. That’s encouraging to see. Then, Oluwaseyi, who has pushed Larin for minutes and has earned three starts under Marsch, is also doing pretty well at getting into good spots - that’s also good to see.
Unfortunately, both have squandered several key chances, which has led to Canada’s xG underperformance. That’s key, because while Canada will know they need to generate more chances, it’s still important to finish the ones they’ve generated, and that’s where Larin and Oluwaseyi have struggled. 
Canada's shot map vs. Mexico, showing where they actually sent the attempts they took. As seen, they struggled to get the attempts they had close to the goal (WyScout)
To that point, though, it shows why, while Marsch will be focused on tweaking his team’s offence this summer, there will be an open audition for strikers not named Jonathan David to step up and prove they can carry more of a goalscoring load going forward.
NEW VIDEO 🚨
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 2, 2025
Should Jonathan David show up for the #CanMNT at this summer's Gold Cup... or take a much-needed break as he sorts his next move out and give Jesse Marsch a chance to experiment with other promising strikers? 👀
WATCH ▶️https://t.co/YJXKA1Fv4H pic.twitter.com/Qs49H5B27d
Can Larin use his experience and find the form he had for Canada in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers? Will Oluwaseyi turn his red-hot MLS form into more Canadian goals, especially after finally opening his international account in March? Or can the still yet to debut Promise David, who had 24 goals for Union St-Gilloise this year, including 19 goals on 16.29 xG in Belgian league action, step up? And ditto for Daniel Jebbison, who recently scored for AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City?
Figuring out that battle could go a long way towards figuring out a better path to scoring goals, as each player is quite different, and might fit Marsch’s system in new ways, on both sides of the ball.
12 months ago, Promise David was racking up the goals in 🇪🇪
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) May 25, 2025
Today, he scored a brace to secure Union St-Gilloise's 1st Belgian title since 1935 (and a #UCL spot!)
What a rise - lots still to come for the 23 y/o with club and the #CanMNT, toopic.twitter.com/quyAFYKGDq
That’s an important point to navigate - many wouldn’t have expected Shaffelburg to be the second most important source of offence behind David when Marsch was hired, for example, but he’s proven to be an excellent fit in this system. Yet, sometimes surprise players can completely change the complexion of a team - just look at how Moïse Bombito has changed this team’s defence.
Now, look for Marsch to begin this quest this week, when Canada kicks off their Canadian Shield journey with friendlies vs. Ukraine and Côte D’Ivoire, leading into their Gold Cup opener vs. Honduras. As seen here, his task is twofold - find a way to get more out of his attack, on a more consistent basis, while figuring out the best fit in the team going forward.
With the World Cup now just over a year away, it’s a reminder of the task that lies ahead for this team - to be best prepared for that tournament, and this is one of many areas where they’ll look to improve ahead of then.
All numbers via WyScout.
