SCENARIOS: How Canada can qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Costa Rica

If Canada can extend its six-game winning streak into a seventh match when it faces Costa Rica in the final window of the Octagonal, the wait for a berth at a men’s World Cup will be over — 13,340 days after the Canadians qualified for the 1986 tournament with a victory over Honduras in Newfoundland.

Sitting atop the standings after 11 games, Canada’s fate is firmly in their own hands.

Win in San Jose and nothing else matters: they are going to Qatar, regardless of other results.

Win and we’re in. A draw or loss could also see Canada qualify for the FIFA World Cup on Thursday, but ultimately we are in control of our own destiny and the goal is clear. 🍁#CANMNT #ForCanada #WCQ pic.twitter.com/AHuK1ko1OS

— Canada Soccer (@CanadaSoccerEN) March 22, 2022

What if Canada draws?

Canada can also qualify with a draw. For that to happen they would need one of two scenarios to occur:

1. Panama fails to beat Honduras at home.

or

2. The United States fails to beat Mexico away.

If the latter occurs, the United States vs. Panama match on the second matchday of the window would make it impossible for both teams to match or surpass Canada’s 26 points.

On this front it is worth remembering that the U.S. has won just one game on the road — against bottom side Honduras — while Mexico is yet to lose at home.

What if Canada loses?

If Canada loses, things are slightly different as Costa Rica will still have a shot — albeit a long one — at catching them. In that case, Canada can only qualify on the day if:

1. Panama fails to beat Honduras at home.

and

2. The United States loses to Mexico away.

While not impossible, Canada will not be banking on getting those two results and a loss likely forces them wait to finish the job at home against Jamaica.

What are Canada's chances against Costa Rica?

Costa Rica enjoyed an excellent January window that has given their World Cup hopes a major boost.

Luis Fernando Suarez’s side collected seven points from a tough slate of games, beating Panama at home and Jamaica away with a road draw in Mexico in between.

La Sele lacks the attacking firepower of the other four contenders but has leaned on experience and a stingy defence to grind out results, with legendary goalkeeper Keylor Navas conceding just five goals in 10 appearances.

Costa Rica is yet to win or lose a game by more than one goal, with Canada’s 1-0 victory in Edmonton in November one of only three defeats.

The 2014 World Cup quarter-finalists’ improving form has been built largely on a strong home record, registering three wins and a draw in four games since losing to Mexico in their first Octagonal game in San Jose.

Canada, of course, is yet to be beaten home or away. After earning draws in the United States, Mexico, and Jamaica, the Canadians saw off Honduras and El Salvador for their first road wins.