GANGUE-RUZIC: Why the outcome of CanMNT's heated striker race is so key for 2026 World Cup
In international soccer, there’s nothing better than some healthy competition at a position, helping keep those on the top on their toes and the ones pushing for minutes below them hungry.
Right now, the CanMNT are getting that, and then some, at the striker position heading into their match against Trinidad & Tobago later this month.
And that competition is coming from new faces, too. Of course, at the top, Jonathan David and Cyle Larin have continued to thrive at the club level, as they’ve tended to do over the last few years, with David quietly crafting one of his best seasons yet at Lille, while Larin’s gotten over a slow start with Mallorca in a big way as of late.
But beyond them, they’re starting to receive a little competition from some different names, however.
First, there’s been a push from a familiar face, but one who hasn’t been with Canada in a while, and that’s Iké Ugbo, who earned his last call-up to the team at the World Cup over 15 months ago.
Yet to earn a call since then as he struggled with inconsistency at the club level, he’s been on fire as of late for new club Sheffield Wednesday, who he joined on loan in January, where he’s already scored six goals in eight Championship games to help them in their relegation fight.
Along with the four goals he scored in a quieter first half of the season for fellow Championship side Cardiff, that’s put him up to 10 league goals on the year, which is right outside the top 10 in the Championship's Golden Boot race despite only playing 1476 minutes.
A true poacher, he’s finishing with extreme confidence at the moment, seemingly putting home every chance that falls to him in the box, showing why he’s one of Canada’s top pure goalscorers in their player pool.
Meanwhile, in Scotland, a new face is emerging in Theo Bair, who is looking to earn his first senior call-up since January 2020, as he’s in the midst of an excellent season with Motherwell. There, he’s scored an impressive 11 goals and added 4 assists to help Motherwell push for the top half in the league, with his goals putting him in the top five in league scoring.
Considering he’d scored just one goal and added one assist in SPFL play in his previous stint at St.Johnstone, where he spent one and a half seasons before joining Motherwell, it’s been a huge breakout for Bair, who has caught the eye of Canadians with his performances.
Especially now that he’s starting to find the net on the big stage, such as this weekend, where he scored in Motherwell’s huge upset win over league leaders Rangers at their famed Ibrox Stadium, those eyeballs are starting to spread internationally, as well.
A player who has always thrived when running in behind, he’s grown in his hold-up play and off-ball movement, and that’s allowed him to shine as of late, as he’s been oozing confidence for the last three months.
Yet, that just shows - the CanMNT has a fun race brewing at the striker position right now.
Our three most in-form #CanMNT strikers all scored today 🇨🇦
— Josh Deming (@tv_jjd) March 2, 2024
Goals in all competitions
Jonathan David - 17
Theo Bair - 11
Iké Ugbo - 10
With a one-off match against Trinidad and Tobago fast approaching this is exactly how you want your strikers to be performing 🔥
In most scenarios, performances like the ones that Bair and Ugbo are putting up wouldn’t just guarantee call-ups to Canada, but likely lead to minutes and starts. Yet, at the moment, it remains up in the air if that’ll happen heading into Canada’s next camp, where they’ll play Trinidad & Tobago in a one-game Copa América playoff.
At the same time, that’s also a hat tip to David and Larin, the CanMNT’s top two all-time goalscorers with 26 and 28 goals, respectively, as they’re putting together good seasons of their own.
Larin took a bit of time to get going this season, as he was slow to find his feet after joining Mallorca, but he’s up to six goals and three assists in all competitions as of writing, putting up two goals and two assists in La Liga action, and adding four goals and one assist in a magical Copa Del Rey run that has seen Mallorca reach the final of that competition for the first time since 2003.
Because of that, he may finish with a major trophy and double digits in goals, which is never anything to scoff at for a striker playing at this level, especially in his first year at a club.
Meanwhile, David’s having himself quite the season in Ligue 1, where he’s now up to 12 goals on the campaign after scoring this past weekend, which currently has him tied with Alexandre Lacazette for second in the league, only behind Kylian Mbappe’s 21 goals. Plus, he’s done some damage in other competitions, too, up to 17 goals and 7 assists when factoring in the work he’s done in the UEFA Conference League and Coupe De France.
It’s a super striker Saturday for 🇨🇦’s, and Jonathan David’s capitalized on that, slotting home his 12th Ligue 1 goal of 23/24 after a sloppy turnover
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) March 2, 2024
He’s now got 10 goals in his last 12 L1 games, and has 17G/7A in all competitions #CanMNT
pic.twitter.com/0gzhxXnnws
You factor in that he’s doing most of his damage in open play this year, too, scoring 11 out of his 12 goals via that route after scoring just 14 of his 24 goals last season in open play, that’s been huge to see as some felt his penalty total last year made his season look better than it was.
Considering he had a slow start of his own, too, scoring just two goals in his first 12 Ligue 1 games of the season, it just shows how impressive he’s been as of late, too.
Yet, as seen across the board, he’s not the only Canadian striker thriving, and that’s likely being fuelled by this competition that is brewing across the board. For each of those names that have been mentioned here, they’re all likely aware of the numbers that the others are putting up, and are thus pushing harder to keep pace in this race.
As a result, Canada looks set to benefit from all of this, giving them the chance to pick some strikers who are hungry in front of goal right now, which is exactly what they’ll need heading into a playoff game where decisive strikers could make a huge difference.
And, long-term, they could stand to benefit from this competition eventually spreading elsewhere across their player pool.
Heck, it appears it’s already started to do that - for example, Charles-Andreas Brym has heated up as of late with Sparta Rotterdam, where he’s up to four goals and two assists in all competitions in his first Eredivisie season, including a goal and an assist in his last three league games.
Given that Brym has already been in the Canadian squad several times over the last few years, making 11 appearances, he’ll also feel that he can be in that mix, and will continue to push and ensure that his name is not forgotten.
Then, closer to home, Tani Oluwaseyi looks set to have a big first full season in MLS with Minnesota United, where he already has one goal and one assist in just 50 minutes through two games. After a big season in the USL last year on loan, where he had 17 goals and 7 assists for San Antonio FC, he looks poised to make a step up, potentially pushing him into this discussion long-term.
WHAT a finish from Tani Oluwaseyi to open his MLS account, as he curls one in from a tight angle to rescue a late point for #MNUFC vs #Crew96
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) March 2, 2024
He's got 1G/1A in just 50' in 2 games, after a dominant 2023 in the USL
The 23 y/o FW is one to watch#CanMNT pic.twitter.com/FTeWqCvPc5
Along with youngsters like Jacen Russell-Rowe, who had four goals and two assists in MLS play for the eventual MLS Cup champions Columbus Crew last year, and Jules Anthony-Vilsaint, who had one goal and one assist for CF Montréal and opened his 2024 acount this weekend, and those are also other names to monitor.
And they’re but just a few to keep an eye on, as that list easily stretches to include Nashville SC’s Woobens Pacius, and more in the Canadian Premier League who will be looking for big seasons.
Yet, it just shows the value of competition, and what this fierce race between David, Larin, Ugbo and Bair could do for the rest of the pool behind them.
But before taking too much of a broader look, however, now, it’ll be interesting to see what happens heading into that Trinidad and Tobago game.
Based on their form, all four of David, Larin, Ugbo and Bair should be there, with David and Larin retaining their roles as starters, with Ugbo and Bair ready to spell them off the bench later in the game. Then, from there, based on how that game goes and how the rest of their seasons proceed, that hierarchy could change heading into the summer.
Yet, that doesn’t feel like all four will get called in, as Canada’s squads have been more veteran-heavy as of late, which has led them to look a little more stale than usual as of late.
Because of that, if one of Ugbo and Bair ends up missing out this month, though, it would be a huge disappointment for a Canadian side heading into one of their biggest games in recent memory, where they’ll need to be in-form and sharp if they’re to grab a result against a plucky Trinidad and Tobago team.
Especially with what would await them at the Copa América, where they would play defending World Cup and Copa América champions Argentina in an opening day match, before getting stiff tests against Peru and Chile, they can’t afford to mess around in this qualifier, as missing out on that opportunity would be catastrophic.
Therefore, it would be key to have Ugbo and Bair on deck, rewarding them for their seasons, as well as for the competition that they’ve helped create around them.
If Canada wants to best prepare for the 2026 World Cup, rewarding in-form players is crucial, because if not, the group could risk hitting a wall despite having a player pool that’s expanding by the day, with this striker race just being one example of the sort of races that are starting to brew across their roster.
But that just shows why this Bair and Ugbo race is so crucial, as it’s not just about their performances and what they can bring to this Canadian side this month, but what their inclusions could mean for the future direction of this team.
