CanMNT DEPTH CHART: Which goalkeepers will Jesse Marsch turn to for France, Netherlands friendlies?
Goalkeeper and Canadian youth international Gregoire Świderski will reportedly join up with the Canadian men's national team when they face off against France for a June friendly at his home stadium in Bordeaux, and while Świderski’s inclusion is probably down to convenience – it simply doesn’t make sense to fly a third 'keeper out to Europe for two games – the report continues a bit of a debate over the team's goalkeeping depth heading into the 2024 Copa America and beyond.
Milan Borjan’s long-time understudy, Maxime Crepeau, took his place between the posts in March, when Canada took on Trinidad and Tobago in a must-win match to qualify for Conmebol's grand tournament. Stuck behind rather tepid spells of possession, he had little opportunity to stake a more permanent claim in the starting XI, facing just two shots all game, despite Levi Garcia's best efforts.
Two months later and with a new head coach in Jesse Marsch, the CanMNT goalkeeping questions remains uncertain; Crepeau’s new club, the Portland Timbers, sit in the basement of the western conference, while CF Montreal’s Jonathan Sirois – who earned his first international call against Trinidad – isn’t faring much better.
It’s Dayne St. Clair’s Minnesota United who are the surprise of this young season, riding high at second in the east – but, relatively untested he remains for Canada, so where does that leave this race for the starting spot?
There is, of course, another option: Leading the CanMNT in all-time appearances for a goalkeeper, Milan Borjan was perhaps the most startling omission last international window, when Canada eked out a 2-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago to qualify for Copa America. And, of course, there are a number of other names on the bubble, including Tom McGill, James Pantemis, Luka Gavran, Marco Carducci, etc.
But who's the likeliest to earn the nod come this upcoming flurry of big-game moments?
Let's take a deeper dive at the player pool with the three likeliest picks:
Maxime Crepeau
The sky is falling on the Timbers, and that isn’t ideal, since they went and signed four Canadians in the offseason. Behind Crepeau is James Pantemis, whom we won’t be talking about, even though he’s already played more minutes than he did all of last season. In front of them, Kamal Miller and Zac McGraw, who were supposed to solidify the backline, have conceded the second most goals in MLS instead. What the heck is going on?
As performance metrics for outfield players grow more complex and fancy circular charts attempt to convince you that your pet player is really very good, goalkeeping stats seem content to stay in the stone age - at least in popular discourse. Everything that’s everyone’s fault - goals conceded and a lack of shiny clean sheets - gets blamed squarely on the man between the sticks. And that’s just not fair. For the Timbers, the sky is very much falling, but for Crepeau, not necessarily. Here comes a not so fancy chart:
Well that sure seems to contradict what I just said! Crepeau’s save percentage is down in the dirt - nearly 2 in 5 shots on target are going past him. But that means nothing on its own if you don’t look at the shots going past him. The numbers say they aren’t very stoppable.
https://twitter.com/CharlotteFC/status/1786925411022061622
That isn’t to say he couldn’t do better. You probably should’ve done better on that one, Max. It’s just that Portland are constantly facing high quality chances. The chart tells us that Crepeau is facing more difficult shots than almost any other goalkeeper in the league.
And when you take the quality of those shots into account, the picture is a little prettier. Per 90 minutes, Crepeau is stopping shots at about the rate you’d expect of an average MLS keeper. Crepeau probably aspires to be better than an average MLS keeper, and as things stand, league wide goals saved above expected are unsustainably high.
But the takeaway here is that Crepeau is the least of Portland’s problems.
Dayne St. Clair
Goalies are voodoo. It’s a hockey aphorism that belongs in soccer just the same. Daniel of the San Jose Earthquakes was among the best goalkeepers in MLS last season, even though he missed a lot of it. Saving roughly 7.5 goals above expected, he dragged the Earthquakes to mediocrity even while they longed for the basement.
But goalies are voodoo. And this season, he’s at the bottom of the league, allowing 0.64 goals above expected per 90 minutes. On the opposite end of the spectrum is one Dayne St. Clair.
There’s a perception of St. Clair – or at least the one I’ve always heard: He’s a good shot stopper dogged by inconsistency. 2022 was his first real season as a starter, and he did phenomenally well, stopping about 7 goals above expected over the course of the season.
Last year, he went and stopped below expected. Goalkeepers, collectively, were stopping above expected last season, which left St. Clair as one of the weakest starters in the league. This year, he’s returned back to his 2022 totals - he’s Canada’s lone MLS starter we can definitively say is stopping shots above average this season. What might really surprise you is that DSC’s career shot stopping numbers are a little better than Crepeau’s.
His passing numbers aren’t so hot. It’s a cliche that MLS goalkeepers tend to be poor distributors, but it’s the one thing that’s been consistent about St. Clair. He loves booting the ball up the field even if he isn’t particularly good at it. This season, he’s behind only Alex Bono and Brad Stuver in attempted launches - that’s passes over 90 yards. Unlike Bono and Stuver, he only completes those long passes about a quarter of the time. He probably ought to stop trying them so much.
St. Clair isn’t as young as you might think - he’s 27 now, actually. He’s only 20 MLS appearances behind Crepeau, who’s three years his senior. If he can get a little less stubborn about his distribution, that perceived lack of consistency (that might apply equally to Crepeau) shouldn’t distract from the fact that he’s probably the best shot stopper we have.
Jonathan Sirois
It’s a little strange how the hype has dried up on Sirois. Even after Montreal’s 5-1 drubbing at the hands of TFC, his shot stopping numbers actually look better than they did before. Yes, he was a rookie last year, and it was all very impressive, but his XG petered out to merely average by the end of 2023. That’s not the case so far this season. You’ll notice his XG is still stuck in that scary shade of red - that’s because MLS is scoring a little under expected this year. Still, he’s stopping shots above expected, and that’s really all you can ask.
What is somewhat concerning is his distribution, which has grown more conservative, and troublingly, less accurate. Sirois is the anti St. Clair, opting almost exclusively for short passes and throws. Only Steve Clark and Patrick Schulte tend to pass it shorter. When Sirois does launch the ball, he’s been worse than anyone else in the league, at a dismal 21% completion rate.
This isn't quite enough evidence yet to concoct an identity. This could very well be a symptom of Laurent Courttois’ system that generally opts against hoofing the ball forward and that lacks a strong presence upfront.. Sirois was much more ambitious with his distribution last season, bolstered by a respectable 35% completion rate.
At the end of the day, he’s the second youngest starter in the league. He’s gotten a little better in one department and a little worse in the other. The dooming is premature and we ought to separate his performances from wherever Montreal winds up at the end of the year.
Where things stand
The fretting over the goalkeeper situation probably comes from a few different places. Borjan is probably gone, and even to the extent we wanted the old guard to move on, that in and of itself is scary. There aren’t any European flags beside the names of our goalkeepers now, and so everything feels scary and tenuous. To make things worse, the middle aged guard is stuck on underperforming sides. The goals conceded number beside Crepeau’s name is going to get uglier and the fretting will probably get worse.
I would argue, though, that the situation is not bad so much as uncertain. There are arguments for all three of our MLS starters - Crepeau, the veteran with the consistently commanding presence in the box. St. Clair, that streaky but talented shot stopper. Sirois, perhaps, the gloves of the future.
Crepeau probably keeps the starting spot on seniority alone - but fierce competition spot should not be mistaken for a lack of depth.
