CanMNT DEPTH CHART: Which forwards will Jesse Marsch turn to (after calling them all up)?
Jesse Marsch caused some surprise along the fringes of his 26-man roster for the Canadian men's national team for upcoming friendlies against the Netherlands and France – Kyle Hiebert and Dominick Zator each received call-ups after lengthy hiatuses from the senior side, for instance.
But up front, the biggest surprise is probably Charles-Andreas Brym, who, perhaps, benefitted more from another factor other than form: He’s already in Rotterdam after all, where Canada will face off against the Oranje.
It's hard to put a label on the present striker situation. Jonathan David remains his usual self while Cyle Larin faltered after his big transfer to Mallorca. Lucas Cavallini was pretty definitively phased out, while Ike Ugbo and Theo Bair finally found some form. In any case, Marsch will have his pick next week as he called in all five of David, Larin, Brym, Ugbo and Bair, the first time we've seen this many options in a single camp in some time.
So, to the extent that it’s possible, let’s keep this discussion confined to these likely strikers and not everyone with an 'FW' next to their name. Here are Marsch's realistic options up top moving forward:
Jonathan David
I’ve given up on having strong Jonathan David opinions. Not on his quality – that’s very clear.
No, it’s the strange configuration of talents he uses to get there I’m afraid I’ll never understand.
Once, he seemed like an undersized poacher who needed a bigger body next to him to be at his best. In his first season with Lille, he looked a completely different player with Burak Yilmaz stapled to him to scare centre-backs away. He thoroughly dispelled that this year, single-handedly leading the line for Paulo Fonesca’s side... and doing a pretty good job at it.
Sure, there was that annual scoring drought that everyone has forgotten about by now – from August to November of 2023, he didn’t score a single goal in Ligue 1. David can do that, and do it every year, and still, finish second in scoring, just as he did this season with 19 goals.
Even if he’s been reasonably consistent since November, the jury is very much still out on how we can get the best from him. Luckily, Jesse Marsch is paid a lot of money to make such decisions, and he has footage from 46 Canada caps to go off of, too.
Perhaps he’ll pick up where Mauro Biello left off in his final game as gaffer. He dropped David behind Larin and Ike Ugbo in a similar sort of role to the one that launched his career with KAA Gent in Belgium.
The other part of me doubts that Marsch will have the same inclination. For one, it was extremely frustrating to watch. For another, if you haven’t heard, Marsch loves to press, and David is one of the fastest players on the team (and more willing to get stuck in than people realize). Marsch will probably want him on the front lines, as such.
What’s a little less certain is whether he’ll have the same opportunity to lead the line on his own in red and white.
Cyle Larin
I can’t find the tweet because it was one of a thousand angry Besiktas fan tweets from his time there. And it was originally in Turkish. But it went something like: Larin plays like a Sunday leaguer, but he also scores a lot.
And it resonated with me. No, it isn’t very nice (or very fair) but tell me with a straight face you haven’t felt the same way when he isn’t at his very best. Larin is the CanMNT's all-time leading scorer – he’s scored about every important goal there is to score... and still, we wonder whether we really want him in the starting XI.
He didn’t do himself any favours this season with Mallorca, who paid their third highest ever transfer fee for his services. He scored just 3 goals in La Liga for a team that desperately needed goals. We can blame the service and the system til the cows come home, but at the end of the day, his strike partner Vedat Muriqi was more effective, and he didn’t do enough with the opportunities he did have.
The biggest xG underperformers in Europe's top five leagues this season. 😬
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) May 15, 2024
Are you surprised by any of the top 10? 💭 pic.twitter.com/MMuDNJqIvl
He’s taken a step back from his more pleasant stint at Valladolid where his hold-up play looked relatively competent, really, for the first time ever. Mallorca don’t trust him to hold the ball, and this season, he hasn’t given them much reason to.
And though it pains me to say it, there does come a point where we have to question the plausibility of playing two strikers against top tier teams. They might not look it, but David and Larin are deceptively similar players who make worryingly similar runs into the very same paths.
I still lean towards putting the best eleven on the field, and Larin is still probably there. If he doesn’t score though, be prepared for his inherent frustrating-ness to yield similarly furious, English-language tweets.
Theo Bair
But enough needless angst! Thelonius Bair was the feel-good story of this European season, netting 15 goals in 38 games for Motherwell in the Scottish Premiership. It’s a development seemingly no one expected apart from manager Stuart Kettlewell, who insisted on signing him even after a dismal season with St. Johnstone.
🗣️ 'One or two people have changed their mind on him, haven't they? I am not going to say I told you so, but...'
— PLZ Soccer (@PLZSoccer) February 3, 2024
They missed out on Kevin Van Veen but Motherwell manager Stewart Kettlewell was singing the praises of goalscorer Theo Bair.
Buying a car? Click HERE ➡… pic.twitter.com/KKmq2YgZI8
We don’t need to make up a story about how he turned things around, because Bair tells the story pretty intriguingly himself. Recent reports are linking him to a potential Championship move, too.
Motherwell finished only behind the Old Firm in league goals, and Bair was a big part of that. He actually outscored his xG, which already averaged out to roughly a goal every other game.
There’s a wonderful story here, about a guy who watched and rewatched footage of himself until he learned to use his physical tools to his advantage. It’s hard to argue that he’s higher than fourth in the depth chart given the competition standing in his way – as a substitute, he doesn’t exactly have the game-breaking pace to justify bringing him into play for a burst of energy.
That he’s probably on the Copa America squad on the back of a chance a lot of people didn’t think he deserved, though, is an achievement in and of itself. Let’s see where he can go from here.
Ike Ubgo
Ike Ugbo also decided to start scoring. He split his season roughly in half between Championship sides Cardiff City, where he wasn’t so hot, and Sheffield Wednesday, where he sorta saved them from relegation. Tempting though it is, we’re not gonna cherry pick his happy Wednesday stats. We’re gonna look at the whole, lukewarm picture.
Ugbo is the purest poacher of our forward group - he’s the lean wanderer Jonathan David looks like when he isn’t scoring. He hates taking low-percentage shots, and frankly, he doesn’t like having the ball at his feet very much. He also doesn’t like making runs into through balls unless he’s very certain it’ll lead directly to a shot.
It leaves him tiptoeing around the penalty box a lot, which looks goofy when it leads to nothing, but amazing when he has decent service to work with.
Why Ike Ugbo scores goals - his subtle movements in the box anticipating and, what i like to call, his ability to "paint pictures" of what will happen next.
— TW Football (@TWFootball1867) March 3, 2024
1: As the ball comes out to Johnson he anticipates the shot, just pulls to the shoulder of the defenders to be first to… pic.twitter.com/jK6fioFQ0G
With Canada, I think it’s pretty objectively an awkward fit, which explains why he’s still looking for his first goal after 9 caps. Assist aside, if it looked like he was mall walking against Trinidad, it’s because he sorta was. He’s never been the focal point of our attack where he can be as selective as he likes. He has to share the space with David and Larin who are not at all afraid to gobble up possession and take a crack from 40 yards.
It’s why I’m skeptical he’ll ever really take the starter’s reins. David and Larin get in each other’s way, but they don’t actively contradict each other. Ugbo can’t help but look like a passenger when someone else is dictating terms.
As an attacking sub in a front three, he has a good case to be the first one on.
Charles-Andreas Brym
Brym got his first consistent minutes in a top tier league this season, albeit, mostly from the wing and mostly as a substitute. It’s hard not to think him already being in Rotterdam was a factor in his inclusion, with Jacen Russell-Rowe and Tani Oluwaseyi storming onto the scene in MLS.
Brym has a severe case of the Hieberts, only, on the front line. His XG looks good against other wingers and his passing looks good compared to other centre forwards. He generates some offense with quick cuts to the inside.
If that brace against Feyenoord happened at the end of the season instead of the beginning, then surely, there’d be a little more hype right now. As things stand, it’s a little difficult to see where he’d come into play.
Conclusion:
There's no denying the drop off after Jonathan David - but that's because Jonathan David is very good! With the emergence of Bair and the re-emergence of Ugbo, we've found a little depth from the brink of a terrifying canyon. At the 2023 Gold Cup, it sure seemed like there was nothing, and nothing coming to save us. One year later, it's probably where we're deepest, once again.
