Why CanMNT can't overlook Mexico in 'heavyweight fight' Nations League semi-final
There is a (California) dream scenario for the Canadian men’s national team in Los Angeles this week.
That would be stepping out in front of a massive crowd at SoFi Stadium to face the United States in Sunday’s 2024-25 Concacaf Nations League final. Given everything from the political climate to the natural rivalry between these two sides, it would be both a significant test and the kind of story for the program that would transcend the traditional soccer media coverage.
Finish that match with a statement victory over the United States and by lifting their first trophy in 25 years, and the dream only gets better.
But a sizeable green giant stands in Canada's way, not to mention the very real possibility of Panama upsetting the United States as they did at this summer's Copa América. On Thursday night, Canada meet Mexico in the Concacaf Nations League semi-final and if they even for so much as a moment lose focus on the task in front of them it will be a humbling experience, and that aforementioned dream will quickly die.
While Canada enter the match on a great run of form, and a three-match undefeated streak against Mexico, history isn't remotely on their side. Canada have not defeated Mexico in a knockout fixture in 25 years, and have done so just four times in 30 all-time meetings. El Tri remain 12 spots above Canada in the FIFA rankings and the SoFi Stadium crowd will be overwhelmingly supporting Mexico.
Whether or not Canada should be considered the favourite in this match, as some odds and pundits have suggested, or in this competition in general, is conjecture according to Canadian men's national team manager Jesse Marsch. He knows that this game will be a big test, and one for which his team can ill afford to be unprepared.
"I believe strongly that this game is going to test us in a massive way," said Marsch in a pre-match press conference on Tuesday. "I want to see that our team's ready, that our team can still set the tone and has respect for Mexico, but really goes after the game.
"It has the potential to be a real heavyweight fight, and in that sense I'm really excited about what the possibilities of the game will be. I'm excited to see our team play."
Make no mistake, while Mexico may have taken a few punches in recent years their heavyweight status within the region has never been in doubt. That might be clouded given Canada's recent performance against them. Canada, after all, are the top seed in this tournament, and Mexico did not look convincing in qualifying for these semi-finals, needing to come from behind to beat Honduras on aggregate in the quarter-final.
But that in itself will serve as motivation for El Tri. They will be desperate to prove that they are still to be feared within the region and that this recent dip in form is not a trend, but instead just a transitional period under new manager Javier Aguirre as they, like Canada, prepare for a home World Cup next year.
Everyone wants #CanMNT 🇨🇦 vs. #USMNT 🇺🇸... but first?
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) March 18, 2025
We gotta beat Mexico 🇲🇽
Here's why we cannot underestimate Canada's first opponents at the Concacaf Nations League finals 🏆 pic.twitter.com/TqlsZPPfSC
The weapons and quality are still certainly there, be they lethal striker options like AC Milan's Santiago Giménez or Fulham's Raúl Jiménez, West Ham midfielder Edson Álvarez or Genoa central defender Johan Vásquez.
"There's a huge amount of pride in the game in Mexico, and what it means to the culture," said Marsch. "I think that Javier has brought that back to the team, and I do see the sense of responsibility that the players and that the team carry now, and I understand that he wants to make sure he has a team that fights right, that is ready for every moment, which has made them, I think, a lot tougher to play against."
Canada got a taste of that fight during a friendly in September in Arlington, Texas that ended in a 0-0 draw. Mexico was all over Canada physically, committing 24 fouls as they constantly looked to halt any rhythm or forward momentum. If they adopt a similar approach on Thursday, as Marsch expects them to, it will be a big challenge for a Canadian side that is best when playing a free-flowing transitional game.
"We know that playing Mexico will be very difficult, that they will make the game very difficult on us, just like they did back in September," said Marsch. "They will be physical, they will foul, they will make it a hard game in a lot of ways, I think our guys are excited for the challenge at hand, and the difficulty of playing at another away stadium against a very good team where there's a lot on the line."
But for as much time as Marsch took on Tuesday to be clear that his team were not looking past Mexico, this is also a chance for Canada to show that they no longer fear either the occasion or the opponent. With an eye toward 2026, Thursday's match is the exact kind of game that will serve as ideal preparation for the pressure of World Cup matches.
"The only way to continue to build momentum inside and externally for this team is to try to win every moment we're on the pitch together, and do it in a way that we think is entertaining and aggressive and represents the qualities of these players," said Marsch. "I'm trying to build an overall DNA for the sport in the country that is about being aggressive, that is about fearlessness. That is about going after opponents, and that will be the case, I don't care who we play. We will never be on the back foot. We will always search and seek to be on the front for and set the tone for what we think the game should be."
If Canada can show that sort of fearlessness on Thursday night, they have every opportunity for yet another historic result against Mexico. And if history is any indicator, wins against Mexico tend to be followed by even bigger milestones. But they can't look ahead to those just yet.
