CANADIANS ABROAD: What we learned from Jonathan David's clash with Aston Villa
It was a big audition for Jonathan David, as interest continues to swirl around his club future.
With his contract set to expire in 2025, this summer is a big one for the Canadian forward, as it feels like it’s ‘now or never’ time if he’s going to finally make the sort of transfer that he’s been rumoured to make for several years now.
Having not moved despite all of that supposed interest in past summers, with club Lille staying firm in their evaluation of David and not feeling that any team had come with the sort of offer that they’d consider, that’s how David’s made it to his fourth season with the club when it seemed likely he might only stay two or three years before.
Now, however, he seems destined to move this summer - for real, this time.
Namely, there are two reasons why that is the case - first, with his contract expiring next summer, this will be Lille’s last summer to cash in on him, as otherwise he can leave on a free transfer at the end of 2024-2025, if he sticks around that far. Secondly, David has once again taken a big step forward this year, putting together what has arguably been his best season despite a slow start.
With those factors in his favour, one has to imagine that will be enough for a big club to finally pony up the money that Lille will determine to be satisfactory to move him on, because if not, he’ll just leave for free later.
Yet, what this shows is why two of David’s most recent matches were so important, as Lille took on Premier League side Aston Villa in the quarter-finals of the UEFA Conference League. Having stated in the past that the Premier League was a preferred destination of his one day, it was a perfect chance to audition against a top club, with Villa currently sitting fourth in the league thanks to a strong campaign.
Plus, in a sense, it was also a chance to audition for a potential suitor, too, as Villa have already been linked to David, as it’s expected they’ll struggle to keep hold of red-hot striker Ollie Watkins, who has scored 26 goals and 10 assists in all competitions in 2023-2024, making him one of the best strikers in all of Europe. Because of that, they’ve viewed David as a potential replacement for Watkins, and they aren’t the only team who will be looking for a striker this summer, either.
Then, personally for David, it was a chance to show what he could do against a Premier League club, something he’d only previously done twice in his career, coming in the Round of 16 of the 2021-2022 Champions League, where Lille faced Chelsea in a two-legged tie they eventually lost 4-1 on aggregate. Seeing that David was unable to find the net in that tie, one had to imagine that he was going to be eager to change that in this Villa clash. 
Unfortunately for him, however, things didn’t end up going to plan in this matchup. Not only did David not find the net across both games, Lille ended up coming up just short of advancing to the semi-finals, as after turning around a 2-1 first-leg deficit to make it 3-2 on aggregate in the 67th minute of the second leg, they conceded an 87th-minute goal to send the game to extra time, before losing on penalties.
Despite arguably looking like the better team for a large part of the tie, they were unable to show a ruthless enough edge to beat a team like Villa, who showed their experience with how they were able to rescue victory after looking beaten near the end of leg two.
And for David, it ended up being a much quieter tie than he would’ve ever hoped, as not only did he not find the net, but he finished with just two shots across both legs.
Yet, when diving into the numbers, it leads to an important question - was this a case of David struggling, or just one of those ties where it wasn’t meant for him to shine?
When doing that, it’s hard to say he was dealing with the former - he did only have two shots for a total of 0.13 xG, which is low for a striker of his calibre, but he had just four touches in the penalty area across 210 minutes of this tie - he’s averaging 4.29 per 90 across all competitions this year, helping him average 2.67 shots.
If you don’t get the ball in the box as a striker, it can be hard to get shots off, and David didn’t exactly get the most service in this tie, only receiving 12 passes across both legs - he typically receives 17.06 passes per 90 minutes. Along with the fact that he only lost the ball seven times across both legs, as typically he’ll lose the ball 7.2 times per 90 minutes, that further shows his lack of touches in this tie (if you have the ball a lot, you tend to lose it more).
He did have to do a lot of defending, however, as he contested 14 defensive duels across both legs (he averages 3.13 per 90), seven loose ball duels (he averages 2.51/90), and made five interceptions (he averages 1.09 a game), showing where he was most busy in a tie like this.
Jonathan David: The most underrated forward in world football, today? 🇨🇦#CanMNT pic.twitter.com/yHj1CuxkhV
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) April 22, 2024
Yet, this tie showed the sort of strengths and limitations that David might face if he does choose to go to the Premier League. Of the top five leagues, it’s arguably the one that’s the least kind to strikers - in the past five years, it was the league with the lowest top scorer among the top five leagues twice, had the fourth-lowest another year, and is currently on pace to have the fourth-lowest scorer again.
Other than an outlying season in 2022-2023, where Erling Haaland and Harry Kane filled the net for fun to become the top two scorers across all of the top five leagues, for the most part, the Premier League hasn’t been a place for strikers to fill the net at the same rate as in other circuits.
What that means for David is that the sort of games he had against Villa, where he only had one good chance to score (coming on a partial breakaway in leg one) can often be the norm for strikers, as chances don’t come easily in the Premier League.
On the flip side, that’s also a reason why David might want to test himself in the Premier League, as one has to be a ruthless and clinical finisher to thrive as a striker there, but at this stage of his career, David hasn’t fully fleshed that side of his game out yet.
When he’s at his best, David is typically more involved in the game, receiving the ball a lot, either in the box or even deeper as he drops to get touches in play. That’s seen among Ligue 1 strikers, where there are three key stats where he’s in the top 15 percentile - expected goals, actual goals and pass completion.
Because of that, it shows why David’s next move might make sense with the sort of club he was linked with earlier this week - Napoli. At a club like that, he can still challenge himself in a new league, allowing him to round out his game, without being asked to be dropped into an environment that doesn’t fully suit his style of play.
I think Napoli would be a perfect step for David. I’d be very comfortable seeing him make this move 💪🏼 https://t.co/kDET8Z6xGX
— Josh Deming (@tv_jjd) April 18, 2024
That’s not to say he can’t potentially thrive in the Premier League - he’s become more and more ruthless each year with Lille, shown this year as he’s already scored a career-high 15 non-penalty goals in league action, doing so on 2.69 shots per 90 (his most in a season for Lille), despite being on pace to have three fewer touches in the final third per game.
Plus, he’s doing so once again as a lone striker, something he did last year in a campaign that saw him put up 26 goals and four assists in all competitions, so far up to 24 goals and seven assists with six games to spare, on pace to best all of those numbers.
After concerns that he’d only be able to play as a second striker in a two-player set-up, or as a wide player underneath a striker, that he’s been able to put up those numbers in two consecutive years as a lone #9 is a huge sign of growth.
Just look at his first match after the Conference League tie, which came this past weekend against Strasbourg. There, despite finishing with just 13 touches and one shot, he made the most of that opportunity, scoring the lone goal in a 1-0 win, helping Lille continue to push for top two in Ligue 1.
Jonathan David found the net today, slotting home the lone goal in a 1-0 Lille win over Strasbourg
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) April 21, 2024
With that, he now has 24G/7A in all comps and 17 Ligue 1 goals in 23/24
And, David's 15 non-PK Ligue 1 goals are a career-high now
Good to see#CanMNTpic.twitter.com/uSSwsFHfGZ
A few years ago, he probably struggled in that sort of game, but now he’s finding a way to make a difference even with limited service, showing the growth he’s made in that area.
But now, it’ll be seen whether or not it’s felt that growth will be enough for him to head to England, or if Napoli, AC Milan (who are set to lose striker Olivier Giroud this summer), or somewhere else in the top five leagues beckons.
Either way, there’s no bad choice for David now - even if he stays at Lille for one final season before becoming a free agent, he remains in a top-five league on a team that’s pushing to make the Champions League next fall, and he’ll only likely leave to a team in a similar situation or better.
Now, however, he’ll need to make the right decision, one that can allow him to continue the sort of year-over-year improvement he’s consistently had at Lille, where he’s grown into one of the top goalscorers in Europe.
And the beauty of a player like David is that he’s more than just a goalscorer, as he can defend (as he showed against Villa), and he can create on his day, so hopefully he can bring all of those skills to wherever his new club may be.
Until then, however, look for him to finish strong in Ligue 1 action, where he’ll look to push for a second straight 20-goal season, now up to 17, allowing him to set up nicely for whatever comes next in the future.
