AGR's High Press: What to make of Atlético Ottawa's recent slump | Struggling BC CPL sides set for crucial derby match
A wild playoff race is brewing in the Canadian Premier League.
After a couple of weeks of movement higher up the table, there have quietly been some big developments in the race to make the fifth and final playoff spot, thanks to some key victories from those at the bottom of the table, Valour and Halifax, as of late.
Now, thanks to those recent results, as well as the continued slumps of Pacific and Vancouver, it means that just four points separates fifth and eighth in the table, with Vancouver sitting in that fifth and final playoff spot for now, tied with sixth-place Pacific on 20 points, leaving Valour on 17 points and Halifax on 16 points.
You combine that with what’s going on further up the table, where just five points separates first place Atlético Ottawa and fourth place Cavalry after a big road win by Cavalry over Ottawa this past weekend, and it’s hard to imagine a better scenario from a neutral perspective, as the table is wide-open across the board.
Ultimately, every team is either in a fierce playoff spot or in the race for a title, setting up a couple of fascinating six-point matchups in the coming weeks.
This upcoming weekend is no exception, as Vancouver and Pacific will battle to see who finishes the weekend in a playoff spot in the latest Salish Sea Derby, while first-place Ottawa will host third-place Forge in a crucial top-of-the-table clash.
Because of that, keep an eye on the schedule over the next couple of weeks, as those won’t be the only six-pointers between teams sitting alongside each other in the table - and even the matches that don’t feature two teams directly going head-to-head still can have a massive impact on the table.
With that in mind, here’s a look at what stood out from this past weekend of CPL action in the latest edition of ‘High Press’.
What to make of Ottawa’s slump?
Don’t look now, but after leading the CPL table for most of the season, Ottawa’s grip on first place has loosened significantly, as they now lead York United by just one point after their loss to Cavalry.
After back-to-back losses, coming as part of an eight-game run where they’ve picked up a record of 2W-2D-4L (8 PTS), Ottawa now sits in the middle of a title race they had once looked to have distanced themselves from.
A big reason for that, however? Their defensive play, which has slipped in a big way over the past few weeks.
Offensively, Ottawa remains a strong team, leading the league in goals with 30, having scored in all but one of their league games. They’ve got a deep and loaded offensive group, and have been getting contributions from across their lineup, not putting the burden on one name to carry the load.
Defensively, however, Ottawa has slowly started to slip in recent weeks, conceding eight goals in their past three games after conceding just 13 times in their previous 14 league matches.
For a team that prides itself on being solid at the back, doing so thanks to their commitment to the “Atlético Madrid DNA” the club is built on, it’s been surprising to see from them.
Especially in big matches against York and Cavalry, which are key matches in which Ottawa could’ve created some breathing room at the top of the table, Ottawa will be frustrated with how they let those games slip away from their grasp. 
And this Cavalry match was a great example of what Ottawa will want to clean up in the coming weeks. After going down 1-0 to an unlucky goal from Ali Musse that deflected in off Amer Didić, Ottawa did well to find an 87th-minute equalizer from Sam Salter to give them a chance at getting points out of that game.
Unfortunately, however, that bid ended up being short-lived, as Musse scored in the 89th minute to secure a massive Cavalry win, cementing another frustrating Ottawa loss.
GOAL 🐴🐴
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 4, 2024
ALI MUSSE IS SIMPLY UNBELIEVABLE!!! 😱
Minutes after conceding, @CPLCavalryFC are back in front as Ali Musse pings one past Rayane Yesli to get a brace on his return, simply incredible! 🔴
🔴 Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/M1hehApk4a
Yet, it’s seeming like deja vu for Ottawa, who made a habit of conceding late goals in 2023, which was a big factor behind them missing the playoffs by two points.
And while they still sit comfortably in a playoff position, it’s worth noting that this recent slump now has them nine points ahead of sixth place, which means they’re far from secure in a playoff spot at the moment.
Of course, for a side that made the moves they did this offseason, and has spent most of the season in first place, their eyes remain firmly locked on a regular season title, instead of focusing on the playoff race.
If they’re to win that title, however, it’ll start with tightening up their defence. For as good as their offence has been, sitting third in the CPL in xG for (per WyScout), they’ve overperformed that metric by over six goals, so they could come down to earth a bit, even if they have the talent to score more than expected.
Because of that, it could put some pressure on their defence, who has allowed the second-fewest xG but has underperformed that metric by nearly three goals, to tighten up as they can’t afford to give away points as they did against Cavalry, or even against York where they lost 4-1 despite leading 1-0 early.
In a tight race, tightening things could be the difference between another regular season title or being dragged into the thick of a contested battle, so look for them to fix that going forward.
What’s going on in BC?
At one point this season, it seemed like a virtual certainty that both BC-based CPL sides would be able to host a playoff game.
Now, both sides face an uphill battle just to make the playoffs, let alone secure a top-four spot, as they remain locked in lengthy slumps.
Fittingly, both sides play each other this weekend, however, and perhaps that’ll be the tonic one team will need to find their mojo again and get back on track for the rest of the season.
On one side, there’s Vancouver, who are winless in five games and have a record of 1W-4D-5L (7 PTS) in their past 10 games dating back to June 2nd. Not only that, but they’ve struggled defensively and their offence has dried up, too, getting outscored 20-10 across that span, showing that they’ll need improvements at both ends to get back in form. 
Meanwhile, Pacific’s slump has dated back longer, because while their current winless run in CPL play is only three games long, they have a record of 2W-4D-6L (10 PTS) in their past 12 games, dating back to the beginning of May. Their lone saving grace? They’ve had a lighter schedule, and have a game in hand on four of the five teams ahead of them, including Vancouver.
And much like Vancouver, their struggles have been at both ends, as they’ve conceded 16 goals and scored just nine, with a lack of goalscoring remaining their big priority as they’ve scored just 14 times in 16 CPL games this year.
Because of that, it’ll be interesting to see how this matchup plays out, as both teams will look to use this game as a chance to get back on track. Typically, derby matches can offer a key reset for teams, so both sides will see a potential win as exactly what they need to jumpstart their respective campaigns.
The big question, however, will be how both teams go about trying to fix what’s ailed them. Interestingly, their solutions might be different, even if at first glance one would suggest both need to score more and tighten things defensively.
Offensively, Vancouver has proven they can score goals, scoring 22 times, and they’re middle of the pack in terms of xG. As for Pacific, however, they’re right behind Vancouver in xG, but have just 14 goals to show for it, showing that they need to finish more.
Comparatively, Pacific have remained quite strong defensively, sitting third in xG against and second in xG per shot against, whereas Vancouver has allowed the second-most xG. What that shows is that Vancouver will want to focus on their defensive play, allowing them to make the most of their attack, while Pacific will want to get firing offensively to capitalize on their solid defensive numbers.
As a result, that’ll be the big battle to watch this weekend - can Pacific find the goals they’re searching for against Vancouver’s slumping defence, or will Vancouver’s backline hold on and get a big momentum-building performance?
It feels like that battle could decide if Vancouver claims a fifth straight win over Pacific, or if the Tridents will be able to claim their first win over Vancouver in over a calendar year. 
Valour continues to have Forge’s number:
The funny thing about playing the same opponents so often is that some intriguing trends can emerge. Some teams can match up better against certain sides and struggle against others, which leads to some fascinating statistical trends.
One of those trends played out this past weekend, as Valour hosted Forge. A battle of a side looking to claw into the playoff picture in Valour and a side looking to push into first in Forge, most would’ve expected Forge to win, correct?
Not if they knew about their history against Valour, however, as they entered this game having lost five of their past six meetings in Winnipeg.
Because of that, it wasn’t that surprising to see Valour grind out a massive 2-1 win over Forge to push within three points of the playoff line, as they made it six of the last seven they’ve won over the four-time CPL playoff champions at Princess Auto Stadium.
GOAL🎖️#CanPL BANGERS ONLY!!
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 4, 2024
Jordi Swibel opens the scoring for @ValourFootball vs. Forge with a perfect free kick from distance💫
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/50ZHYwkWsM
Yet, while Valour continued to follow a historic trend in the win, it’s worth noting that they rode some of the key factors that have recently allowed them to claw right back into the middle of the playoff race. 
Namely, they continued to get timely goals from key contributors, were steady at the back, and were flexible tactically, comfortable playing both with and without the ball.
Therefore, while many will look at a win like this and suggest that Valour had Forge’s number at home, it’s also not as if Valour raised their level to beat Forge, instead maintaining the level of play they’ve had over the past few weeks.
At the same time, it’s fascinating to see those sort of historic trends play out, as Valour saw first-hand in a recent victory over Pacific, who they beat away for the first time in five years, so they’ve seen the other side of that equation, too.
And that’s the beauty of a league where everyone plays each other quite often, leading to several fascinating matchups like this one.
Of note, Valour hosts Forge in their third-last match of the season - how massive could that one be for their playoff hopes if they continue this late-summer surge? One can only wonder…
Who caught my eye? Jefferson Alphonse
Wild to think that just a few months ago, Jefferson Alphonse was representing CS Saint-Laurent in the preliminary round of the Canadian Championship, helping the Ligue 1 Québec side defeat the Halifax Wanderers on penalties in a thrilling upset.
Now, fast-forward a few months, and Alphonse made his first start for the Wanderers, who he joined last month, going 90 minutes in their win over Vancouver FC.
There, Alphonse showed why he’s one to watch at 21 years of age, as he put in a solid shift at the back, helping keep things tidy in the win.
Because of that, keep an eye on him going forward, as he could have a big role to play for the Wanderers. One of the club’s U21 Canadians, they’ll need some big minutes out of him as they look to meet their 2000 minutes, and if this game is any indication, he can step up and provide several quality showings for them in their quest to reach that benchmark.
What I’m watching this week: Forge FC vs Atlético Ottawa
Ultimately, it’s hard to look anywhere but Hamilton this weekend in the CPL, as Forge hosts Ottawa in a massive match for both clubs.
And if some of their past meetings are to provide any indication of what this match could bring, then this promises to be an exciting one. Just look at their last meeting, in which both sides combined for a wild 4-3 Ottawa win back in June, combining for one of the CPL games of the season.
From a neutral perspective, many will be hoping for a repeat match, but even if not, this game should have plenty of drama as both sides jostle for a key win, one that could mean a lot for their respective title hopes.
