AGR's High Press: What's ailing Pacific FC right now? (+ a 3/4 CPL awards update)
Quietly, we reached the three-quarter mark of the CPL season this past weekend, as every team has now played at least 21 out of 28 regular season games.
Because of that, we’re now getting set for a crucial last set of matches, where every team will play each other for the final time (except Forge and York, who’ve already played each other four times).
And with the title remaining tighter than ever, led by a four-way tie for second, that’s exciting, as some big six-pointers loom across the next seven games.
Right now, there is a legitimate case for each of the top six teams to both win the title and to miss the playoffs altogether, as that’s just how close the table currently is.
As a result, expect some big matchups going forward, with teams well aware of what’s at stake right now.
Speaking of, here’s a look back at one of the key storylines from this past weekend, as well as an award update, in week 20 of High Press.
Time’s quickly running out on Pacific’s title hopes:
Despite a controversial defeat to Cavalry on the weekend, it was another game to forget for Pacific.
They may have felt that a loss was a harsh result, which is a fair assessment, but they also didn’t do enough to win on the day.
Finishing with just 0.59 Expected Goals (xG) on 10 shots, while allowing 0.88 non-penalty xG on eight shots, it was always going to be tough to win with those numbers in most games.
To be fair, that’s not a bad thing - Cavalry’s one of the best home teams in the league, and have never lost to Pacific at home in regular season play. 
Yet, it’s less about this specific result for Pacific, and more about what it means in the grand scheme of things. There, things are starting to look worrying for the Tridents.
With this loss, their third straight defeat, they have a record of 2W-2D-6L in their last 10 games, and have been outscored 14-11 across that span.
For context, they had a record of 7W-3D-1L in their first 11 games, scoring 21 goals and conceding just nine.
Because of that, they’ve quietly slipped down the table.
After building a hefty lead atop the standings to start the year, they now sit tied for second, four points off Cavalry following this latest defeat. All of a sudden, after looking like runaway winners earlier on, they’re now also three points off being out of a playoff spot altogether, showing how quickly things have changed for them.
Safe to say, this latest slump has left its effects on this Pacific team, who have a crucial seven games ahead of them.
There, they’ll need to find their feet, quickly, or else they could quickly find themselves sliding down the table even further.
The good news? There are positives to cling to for Pacific.
Despite this recent run of form, their overall numbers remain strong. They’ve scored the second-most goals in the league, and have conceded the second-fewest, and have the second-best goal difference.
Then, in terms of advanced numbers, they lead the CPL in expected points, and are runaway leaders in xG for and are second in xG against, so they continue to do the right things as a team.
That means where they’ll need to figure things out is on the individual side of things, as some players have slowed down, and will need to find their feet, quickly, as this Pacific team looks to remain in the title race.
In particular, they’ll want to see more out of their attacking players.
Defensively, they have slumped a bit, but they’ve also only allowed more than two goals in two out of seven of their last games, so it’s not as if they’ve been terrible there.
Yes, they’ll want some consistency from goalkeeper Emil Gazdov, who played six of those seven games, but other than a match to forget against Vancouver in a 3-2 loss, he’s actually been relatively solid over this span. There, mistakes in front of him have been just as costly, such as the turnover that led to the goal in their 1-0 loss to Ottawa, or the lack of finishing they had in a 0-0 draw with York.
Given that he’s been quietly siphoning up some valuable U21 minutes for this Pacific side (which is a worry for four of the six teams in the top five race), that’s not a bad trade-off, given that will provide some important flexibility to Pacific in these last few games.
Therefore, the big worry they’ll need to sort out is in attack, where they’ve slowed down big time. Yet, a big reason for that comes down to the production of some key individuals, which has slowed after their hot start.
Just look at the recent numbers of some of their key attackers.
Josh Heard’s play has been positive, scoring two goals in his last four appearances, while Ayman Sellouf has two goals and four assists in the last 10 games, but after that, things have been very quiet.
Among forwards, Easton Ongaro hasn’t scored (and has just two assists) in his last eight games, Djenairo Daniels has one goal in the last 12 games (he did miss two of them with an injury), Adonijah Reid has one goal in his last 14 and Kekuta Manneh has one goal all season. 
Then, in midfield, key contributors Sean Young and Manny Aparicio have slowed down, as Young hasn’t had a goal contribution in 10 games (he did miss two with injury), and Aparicio has just two assists in the last 13 games.
That’s been huge, as a big part of Pacific’s early season success was that they were getting offence from everywhere, so to see all of that go dry has been a big game-changer.
Therefore, it’ll leave some big questions for James Merriman to answer as they try and sort this out. From getting Young and Aparicio more involved to getting the right balance up front, there are a few key questions to sort out.
Now, he’ll have to do so on the fly, as some big games loom, including a potential title decider with Cavalry in Calgary on the final day.
But if they’re to even be able to dream of lifting a title on that final day, they’ve got some big games ahead, including a crucial two-game homestand against two of the worst road teams in the CPL - Valour and Halifax.
Followed by a three-game trip to Ontario, where they play Forge, Ottawa and York in some massive six-pointers, and then a must-win home Salish Sea Derby against Vancouver leading into that Cavalry game, they’ll need to use these next two games against Valour and Halifax as confidence-builders heading into that stretch.
If not, time could quickly run out on Pacific’s dreams of lifting a regular season trophy and pushing for home advantage in a final, which would be a huge disappointment given their hot start and the talent within their ranks.
Quarterly award check-in:
With it now being the three-quarter mark of the CPL season, there’s no better time to revisit the awards race.
An exercise I did at the halfway point of the campaign, this is a good chance to see how things have shaken up since then and pick a darkhorse to watch the rest of the way.
Spoiler alert - there could be some races that go down to the wire, which will be exciting to follow.
Without further ado, here is how things are looking.
Player of the Year (so far):
Midseason High Press Winner: Ayman Sellouf (Honourable Mentions: Ollie Bassett, Ali Musse)
High Press Three Quarter Mark winner: Ollie Bassett (Honourable Mentions: Kyle Bekker, Daniel Nimick)
This has definitely been the one that has changed the most over the last seven games. Undoubtedly, these three all remain in the race, with Bassett likely having the edge over Sellouf now given Pacific’s recent slump, but there has also been the entry of a few new candidates.
GOAL🏠🏠🏠
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 19, 2023
You know the saying, "#CANPL BANGERS ONLY"!🔥@OllieBassett28 bangs home a free kick to tie the lead league, as well as get the brace! @atletiOttawa lead 0-3 over @ValourFootball in #CanPL action🍁⚽️#ForValour | #ForOttawa
TUNE IN | 🔴https://t.co/7JFAUhgRAE pic.twitter.com/An0FYrpCcq
First, there’s been Daniel Nimick’s unlikely surge at Halifax, as he’s been a rock for them at the back, helping them fly up the standings.
Then, there’s Kyle Bekker’s renaissance campaign at Forge, as he’s quietly put together a career year out of nowhere.
Lastly, there’s been the quiet emergence of a few unsung candidates, such as Halifax’s Lorenzo Callegari, Cavalry’s Daan Klomp and Ottawa’s Nathan Ingham.
Because of that, this one could come down to the wire, which will make it a race worth following.
Darkhorse: Nathan Ingham
Player’s Player of the Year (so far):
Midseason HP Winner: Ollie Bassett (HM: Ayman Sellouf, Lorenzo Callegari)
HP 3/4 winner: Ollie Bassett (HM: Ayman Sellouf, Daan Klomp)
Again, as was noted at the halfway mark, this one is an interesting one to project as it’s hard to know how the players will vote for their peers.
Given his form, however, Bassett still remains in the lead, but after that, it’ll be intriguing to see what happens.
Undoubtedly, there will be a lot of the same candidates as the Player of the Year award, but there is potential for a different order.
Given how tough Sellouf has been for defenders to deal with, he looks like someone who can earn a lot of votes, while ditto for Klomp and what he’s done to some attackers, who will remember some tough games against Cavalry.
GOAL 🔱@PacificFCCPL level the score vs. @VanFootballClub 🔥
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 19, 2023
Thomas Meilleur-Giguère gets on the end of an excellent Ayman Sellouf sequence and it's 1-1 in this west coast derby in #CanPL 🇨🇦
🔴 Watch LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/b4W6Q2mhil
At the same time, arguments can also be made for the likes of Bekker, Musse, Nimick, Callegari and Ingham, so this one could end up being a surprise, especially depending on how these final six games go.
Darkhorse: Ali Musse
U-21 Player of the Year (so far):
Midseason HP Winner: Matteo de Brienne (HM: Tyler Crawford, Goteh Ntignee)
HP 3/4 winner: Jean-Aniel Assi (HM: Goteh Ntignee, Anthony White)
As mentioned at the halfway mark, this was an award where volatility is to be expected, given the development curves of young players, and how much this race has changed over the last seven games just shows that.
Unfortunately, a big part of that is due to injury - Matteo de Brienne would’ve likely been a shoo-in for this if not for a few absences, which can also be said for the likes of Tiago Coimbra, Juan-Pablo Sánchez and even Goteh Ntignee (even though he’s now extremely unlikely to win given he made the jump to France’s Ligue 2 on a CPL record transfer this week). Along with the struggle of some teams to get their U21 minutes, there have been a few factors that have hurt those in this race.
Despite all of that, Jean-Aniel Assi now leads the way, as he’s had both consistency (he leads U21 Canadians in minutes), and production on a good Ottawa side, who keep starting him despite maxing out on his maximum of 1000 loan minutes, showing the faith that they’ve got in him.
GOAL🏠
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 19, 2023
What a cheeky finish by Sam Salter with the back heel!🔥@atletiOttawa take the 0-1 lead over @ValourFootball early in #CanPL action🍁⚽️#ForValour | #ForOttawa
TUNE IN | 🔴https://t.co/7JFAUhgRAE pic.twitter.com/1chs8T7lWR
After that, however, there are a lot of fun names to look at. Anthony White is one of them for Vancouver, as he’s quietly emerged as a rock at the back for them after not playing much at the beginning, while teammate James Cameron is also an intriguing name given his growth at full back.
Then, Kwasi Poku could be a sleeper for Forge, as he’s been solid when available, and should see a lot of action over their last six games as they push to meet their U21 minutes requirements.
Lastly, Thomas Giraldo could be an outside shout from Halifax, given that he just scored his first CPL goal, so could be filled with confidence after that.
Darkhorse: Kwasi Poku
Goalkeeper of the Year (so far):
Midseason HP Winner: Rayane Yesli (HM: Callum Irving, Nathan Ingham)
HP 3/4 winner: Rayane Yesli (HM: Nathan Ingham, Marco Carducci)
This one is definitely the closest, as Yesli edges out Ingham by a hair based on his early-season performances.
Yet, with Yesli slumping and Ingham soaring, this race could see Ingham overtake Yesli at any moment now.
Red Card 🟥
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 1, 2023
Diego Espejo is shown a red card for pulling down Djenairo Daniels leading to a penalty for Josh Heard however, Nathan Ingham comes up with a massive PENALTY SAVE 🧤
The score remains 2-2!
🔴 https://t.co/7JFAUhgjL6 pic.twitter.com/1rIr3mqtjx
Really, that Yesli is still in the lead here shows just how dominant his start to the year was, as despite having a couple of lacklustre games lately, he’s still the runaway leader in goals prevented in the CPL.
Ingham’s pushing, however, and is starting to push his prevented goals up, especially on a per-90 basis where he’s quietly on Yesli’s tail, having played almost 600 minutes less than the Valour goalkeeper.
Because of that, expect this one to come down to the wire between Yesli and Ingham.
Other than that, however, two-time winner Carducci is a sleeper here, as Cavalry haven’t actually been that good at preventing chances (they’ve conceded the fifth-most xG but the second-fewest goals), and Carducci’s helped a lot in that regard as of late.
Darkhorse: Nathan Ingham
Defender of the Year (so far):
Midseason HP Winner: Amer Didić (HM: Daniel Nimick, Abdou Samaké)
HP 3/4 winner: Daniel Nimick (HM: Daan Klomp, Amer Didić)
There’s a new leader here, as Nimick’s recent play has just been too hard to ignore, making him the frontrunner here.
GOAL ⚓️@HFXWanderersFC open the scoring vs. @ValourFootball as Daniel Nimick scores in back-to-back matches, he has been in great form this season! 🎯
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 26, 2023
🔴 Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/0N3ud8TVMo
At the same time, Klomp isn’t too far behind him, so this could be a race worth watching, as the pair of CPL ironmen have been dominant as of late, helping their teams surge up the table.
Elsewhere, Didić can’t be ruled out of the race, as Pacific's underlying numbers have remained strong, although he’ll need a big push in the last seven games to climb back up.
Otherwise, there are some intriguing sleepers here - Karl Ouimette is one to watch at Ottawa, Manjrekar James can’t be ruled out given Forge’s underlying numbers, while in terms of full backs, Paris Gee, Kunle Dada-Luke, Wesley Timoteo and Miguel Acosta all have outside shots.
Darkhorse: Karl Ouimette
Coach of the Year (so far):
Midseason HP Winner: James Merriman (HM: Patrice Gheisar, Tommy Wheeldon Jr)
HP 3/4 winner: Patrice Gheisar (HM: Tommy Wheeldon Jr, Carlos González)
Perhaps reflecting the nature of the current CPL table, there’s also a lot of movement at the final award we’re looking at here (sorry, Golden Boot), and that’s the Coach of the Year.
There, a new leader has emerged, and that’s Patrice Gheisar, who has been excellent for Halifax, helping them completely turn around their team.
After missing the playoffs by almost 20 points last year, they now have a shot at the title, and a big reason for that is the work done by Gheisar to help galvanize this squad.
Elsewhere, though, there’s a strong list of candidates, as Wheelon Jr. has had Cavalry flying all summer, González has quietly snuck Ottawa back into the title race, while Merriman can’t be ignored if Pacific turns things around.
Safe to say, this one could also go down to the wire.
Darkhorse: James Merriman
Player of the Week: Mo Omar
Returning to the action of this week, Omar takes this week’s award, as he was dominant in midfield in Halifax’s win over Valour.
From his clean play in possession (he completed 34/34 passes, including 4/4 long balls, and won six fouls), to his defensive work (two tackles, one clearance, four recoveries and 12/19 duels won), he was everywhere on both sides of the ball for Halifax, helping them claim the win.
Goal of the Week: Austin Ricci
It was a quiet week on the bangers front, but there were still some worthy nominees, and Ricci ultimately takes it with his thumping late winner against Vancouver.
Anytime you can generate this much power on a volley, you’re doing something right, and in this case, it allowed York to claim some valuable points at home after an early scare against Vancouver.
🚨GOAL 👑👑@yorkutdfc have turned this match right around and take a 2-1 lead against @vanfootballclub
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 26, 2023
Austin Ricci connects well with the ball to score a rocket! 🔥
🔴 https://t.co/7JFAUhgRAE pic.twitter.com/8sRBJqcSzD
You Gotta See This: Can’t stop the good vibes in Halifax
It was an extremely rainy weekend in Halifax, but that didn’t stop their fans or players from having a good time.
From a fan absolutely crushing a beverage at the beginning of the match, to the joy of some of their goal celebrations, the vibes were flowing at Wanderers Grounds in this one, as the Wanderers continued their unlikely push for a title with a big win.
No Context #CanPL #TogetherFromAways pic.twitter.com/uEJKO5xg9p
— Adam Jenkins (@adamkjenkins) August 26, 2023
What I’m Watching This Week: Atlético Ottawa vs. Cavalry
As usual, lots of crucial games on the slate this weekend, but this clash between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry leads the way, for many reasons.
Based on form, this could be the likeliest #1 vs. #2 matchup in the first round of the playoffs, so this could very well be an early playoff preview, too.
Combine that with the tactical acumen of both teams, and this should also be a good chess battle, which could be quite intriguing after their first three meetings.
Speaking of, that last point is the final thing worth noting - in those matches, there was a winner each time. Might we see that continue? Could shake up the CPL table if there is one, although a draw could also make things interesting depending on the other results.
