AGR's High Press: Ontario rivals leading way as CPL title race heats up, but Cavalry continues to quietly climb
There’s a fierce title race brewing in the Canadian Premier League.
After witnessing Atlético Ottawa lead the way atop the table for much of the season to date, their position is now in peril, as two of their closest rivals now sit within two and four points of them in first place, respectively.
And with all of the momentum currently sitting in the favour of those two sides, York United and Forge FC, it feels like both could be soon set to leapfrog Ottawa, who have slowed down at the wrong time.
Yet, this is the beauty of a long season, as momentum can prove to be a finicky thing throughout a 28-game campaign, where it can be tough to maintain the top-level play required to become a champion.
The good news for Ottawa, and those who still sit elsewhere in the table? The season is still young, as the best team in July and August doesn’t always end up at the top in October.
Now, Ottawa will look to prove that and show the value of their earlier work, which still allows them a key buffer as they try to turn things around. With some key six-point matches remaining, they could just as easily regain their lead at the top with a strong run of form.
With that in mind, here’s a look at what stood out from CPL action this week in “High Press”.
A three-headed monster is growing in Ontario:
Could Forge’s playoff success be the groundwork of the intense title race brewing between three rivals?
It’s unlikely to be the sole factor behind the unique circumstances that have placed Ontario rivals Ottawa, York and Forge all #1, #2 and #3 in the CPL table at the moment, but one has to imagine it’s helped.
They won’t admit it, but it can’t have been easy for York and Ottawa to see Forge claim one regular season and four playoff titles in the past five years, given that they’ve combined for just one trophy between the other two Ontario sides - a 2022 regular season title for Ottawa.
Having both been eliminated by Forge in past playoffs - York fell to Forge in the 2021 semi-finals, while Ottawa lost to Forge in the 2022 finals, one can only imagine that added to that existing feeling of frustration and contempt.
Given that success always places a target on one's back, leading those around them to want to emulate what they’ve done and try and beat them, one has to imagine that feeling can be multiplied when it comes to derbies, as teams always want to best their rivals.
And that sentiment certainly was felt this past weekend, as York hosted Ottawa in a massive clash of the top two teams in the CPL. With Ottawa holding onto a five-point lead ahead of York, they were looking to widen the gap to eight, while York was aiming to reduce it to two.
In the end, York got the job done in style, picking up a crucial 4-1 win, and one could see what the win meant to them, as they celebrated their fourth goal with some jabs toward the Ottawa fans that had travelled to the game.
GOAL 👑👑👑👑
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 27, 2024
IT’S 4 FOR @yorkutdfc! WHAT A STATEMENT VICTORY FROM THE NINE STRIPES! 🟢🔵
Brian Wright continues his hot form and puts the icing on the cake after a rapid counter attack 🎂
🔴 Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/QHSWAtbPOH
Yet, that shows why the proximity of these three teams has added a unique flavour to this race. Not only are all three teams hungry to better their neighbours, but that sentiment certainly extends to the fans of all teams, with more of them able to get involved with the ease of travel between teams, adding another level of intensity to the matches.
Certainly, York’s big win over the league leaders would’ve been special on its own, but for them to do so in front of a crowd filled with their fans and a strong contingent of Ottawa supporters? That’s a sweet feeling, and one that would’ve been just as sweet for the guests had they pulled it off. 
Because of that, eyes will be on the next few meetings between these three teams over the next month, such as when Forge hosts Ottawa on August 10th and York hosts Forge on August 23rd. With how the table is trending, both of those matches could prove to be massive, and that won’t be lost on the fans of each team, who will likely show up in strong numbers.
In terms of the title race itself, however, it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out, as each team has a key advantage at the moment.
For Ottawa, it’s their depth, as they’ve done a good job of relying on several key faces throughout the season, while for York it’s been their new manager, Benjamín Mora, who has been massive during this turnaround. Lastly, Forge will look to use their title-winning experience, which has seen them quietly climb up the table in this race, as that winning mentality seems to shine through in the toughest moments.
Statistically, it’s worth noting that all three teams' best advantage has been their ability to score goals, as Ottawa sits first in the CPL in goals for, Forge second and York third - defensively they’re a bit more all over the map as Ottawa is third in goals against, Forge fourth and York sixth (but quietly climbing).
That’s further exemplified by the fact that the top three scorers in the league come from each club, that being Ottawa’s Rubén del Campo, York’s Brian Wright and Forge’s Kwasi Poku, giving an idea of the offensive firepower each team has at their disposal, especially in terms of those who can help generate chances for that trio of forwards.
Now, the big thing to watch will be who can maintain their form as the second half of the campaign ramps up, but it feels like one thing is for sure - these three will look to further affirm their status as title contenders in the weeks to come, so it feels like this race is just getting started. 
A positive sign for Cavalry?
Of course, other teams outside of Ontario will also have something to say about the regular season title race, as the pair of BC teams, Vancouver FC and Pacific FC, remain in the race despite some supper slumps.
And, naturally, there is last year’s regular season title winners, Cavalry, who have quietly crept up to fourth place after picking up two wins and one draw in their last four games, putting them within eight points of first place.
For a Cavalry side that won that regular season title off the back of a strong middle and second half of the season, one has to figure they remain very much in the race, and their latest game shows why.
Away to Vancouver, Cavalry put up the sort of performance one expects to see from trophy contenders, as they grabbed a 1-0 win thanks to an early goal from Maël Henry, doing well to keep a clean sheet and all three points with their performance defensively the rest of the well.
GOAL 🐎@CPLCavalryFC LEAD! Maël Henry walks the ball into the net to put his side ahead in Langley 👏🔴
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 27, 2024
🔴 Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/RUIE3it2K3
Their second 1-0 win in the past four games, in which they’ve conceded three goals (two to York and one to Forge), once again shows what has been their best skill this year - defending. Sitting with a league-low 14 goals against, having conceded a league-low 15.09 xG (per WyScout), they’ve been a tough nut to crack at the back.
What’s hurt them, however, is a lack of offence, as they’ve now scored just 16 goals in 16 games, which the latest stretch hasn’t helped them with, as they’ve scored four goals across their last four games despite the pair of wins and the draw.
Against Vancouver, though, they got a glimpse of how they could push their attack to another level, as they tweaked their offensive set-up. Thanks to the return of Maël Henry, who made his first start of the season after coming off the bench in Cavalry’s previous four games as he returned from an early-season injury, he was able to start alongside attacking midfielder Sergio Camargo underneath striker Tobias Warschewski in a 3-4-2-1 in possession. 
That provided a key jolt to Cavalry’s attack, as Henry scored and led the way as his team generated 1.49 xG on 12 shots (WyScout).
And that’s something to watch going forward, as Cavalry’s big issue hasn’t been finishing chances, but generating high-quality looks instead, as they’ve generated a league-low 0.106 xG per shot despite sitting fourth in xG with 20.67 per WyScout.
That’s how Warschewski has scored seven goals despite his team’s offensive troubles, showing that he can score when given chances, as the bigger issue has been getting him reliable service.
Between Henry's return, the presence of Camargo (who has only started two of Cavalry’s last six matches), the arrival of new signing Nicolas Wähling and the continued chance creation of Fraser Aird, solutions are there to feed forwards Warschewski, Malcolm Shaw and the recently signed Lowell Wright.
Now, Cavalry will look to find some combinations that work between that group and build on this run, knowing that they remain in the mix to push for first place if they can continue to heat up.
Does Valour now have an outside shot at playoffs?
It was a historic win for Valour this past weekend, as they won away to Pacific for the first time since May of 2019, snapping a 10-game winless run at Starlight Stadium in commanding fashion, defeating Pacific 3-0.
With that, they’ve pushed themselves back into the extended CPL playoff mix, as they now sit six points behind fifth place after this win.
GOAL 🎖️@ValourFootball get the scoring started in our @tonybet_Canada MOTW, with Themi Antonoglou giving his team a 1-0 lead over @PacificFCCPL just before half-time
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 28, 2024
🔴 Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/iHoqvsBziO
While that’s still a significant gap, it’s realistic for Valour to overcome, especially as they get set to tackle the last 12 games of their season, in which they’ll play a whopping nine at home.
Starting with a stretch of four straight home games that begins with a match against Forge this weekend, it’s going to be a season-defining stretch for Valour, who still have every chance of reaching the playoffs for the first time if they can get hot.
If they’re to do that, however, they’ll need to build off what they’ve shown in their past two games, in which they’ve put in two of their best performances of the season, drawing Ottawa 2-2 before their win over Pacific.
In particular, their offence has come alive, which allowed them to score three goals for the first time all season against Pacific, doing so thanks to goals from Themi Antonoglou, Shaan Hundal and Abdul Binaté.
#CANPL. BANGERS. ONLY. 💥
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 28, 2024
Abdul Binate makes it 3-0 for @ValourFootball vs. @PacificFCCPL with this stunning strike to round out our @tonybet_Canada #CanPL MOTW 😎
▶️ Up next? #CanWNT talk and L1C LIVE DRAW on MATCH NIGHT pic.twitter.com/CWn6FEL6ND
They’ve combined that with quiet improvements defensively, as they’ve kept their opponents to under 1 xG in three of their last five games, doing well to find their form thanks to the new-look centre-back pairing of Tass Mourdoukoutas and U SPORTS draft pick Gianfranco Facchineri, which has been quite solid. 
And for what it’s worth, they’re yet to play with their best team, as Roberto Alarcón has missed the last three games with a suspension, which has pushed Dante Campbell to right back. With Alarcón back, it’ll be intriguing to see Valour’s midfield with Campbell, Raphael Ohin and Safwane Mlah all together, especially after Mlah has impressed in back-to-back starts.
They’ll have to wait to try it out, as Ohin will miss the Forge match due to yellow card accumulation, but one has to imagine head coach Phil Dos Santos will trot out that trio soon.
So overall, there’s a lot to like for Valour as they get set for this pivotal stretch. With several massive six-point games ahead, they’ll want to re-find the home form they had in 2022 after struggling at home in 2023, and then go from there.
Right now, they appear to have the pieces, but it’ll be all about putting it together and finding some consistency, which has been the biggest thing they’ve struggled with all season long.
Coming off their best performance of the season, however, they’ll hope that is the exact tonic this group needs to change going forward.
Who caught my eye? Safwane Mlah
Signed off the back of some strong showings for Ligue 1 Québec side CS Saint-Laurent in the Canadian Championship, Mlah has impressed in his first few professional starts for Valour, and this Pacific game was another example of why.
In particular, he was strong in his ball progression, doing a good job of pushing the ball forward with his passing and dribbling, helping to find gaps in Pacific’s defensive set-up.
For a Valour team that has dangerous attackers but hasn’t always done enough to get them the ball this season, Mlah’s skillset has meshed nicely with this group, helping coincide with this uptick in offensive form for his side.
Because of that, look for him to continue to grow as he finds his feet as a professional, showing why Valour was eager to bring him into the fold.
What to watch: Pacific vs York United
A massive clash awaits on Friday in Langford, as an ice-cold Pacific FC side meets a red-hot York United in an intriguing matchup.
For Pacific, it might be exactly what the doctor ordered for them, as no better way for them to put the frustrations of a stretch that’s seen them win just two of their last 11 CPL games behind them with a win over the hottest team in the league right now.
As for York, they’ll feel that this is a perfect opportunity to keep soaring with another big road victory, one that could potentially push them atop the table depending on Ottawa’s clash against Cavalry.
It’s worth noting that Pacific has done well when hosting York at Starlight Stadium recently, winning four straight games, something that York will want to change, especially after seeing Valour’s recent exploits this past weekend.
Safe to say, there will be a lot at stake when the two sides meet in Langford on Friday, which is why this will be one to watch.
