AGR's High Press: Missed opportunities for Ottawa, Cavalry shakes up title race
The Canadian Premier League playoff picture is continuing to take shape, as two more teams clinched their spot in the postseason this weekend to make it four teams who are guaranteed of games after October 19th.
Speaking of that race for the fifth spot, however, - it remains more open than ever, as after this weekend, just two points are all that separate fifth and last place.
What that means is that the last three games could prove to be the difference between reaching the playoffs and having a chance at silverware, and being a wooden spoon side - talk about a stark difference.
At a time of year when there’s usually a team or two well out of the race, it’s been remarkable to see that everyone can look at the last three games and still have everything to play for.
So even though the regular season title race isn’t as tight as it once was, with Forge now carrying a seven-point lead atop the table, don’t take your eyes off the race for that fifth playoff spot, which could go down to the wire.
With that in mind, here’s what stood out from Matchday #25 in this week’s ‘High Press’.
Valour keeps their playoff dream alive:
It was a massive game out in Winnipeg on Monday, as Valour hosted Pacific FC at Princess Auto Stadium in a crucial clash in the race for the fifth and final playoff spot.
After a weekend where Vancouver FC and the Halifax Wanderers both picked up points on the road against title contenders, it put the pressure on Valour, in particular, as a loss could’ve pushed them seven points behind Pacific, three points behind Vancouver and two points behind Halifax, all but eliminating them from the playoff race and putting them in a battle not to finish last.
Instead, they were able to out-last Pacific in a battle of wits, riding a 76th-minute own goal from Pacific’s Kevin Ceceri to one of their biggest wins of the season.
(OWN) GOAL 🦁@ValourFootball HAVE A LATE LEAD! Themi Antonoglou sends a cross in which is deflected by Pacific’s Kevin Ceceri past Emil Gazdov ⚽️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 1, 2024
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/m0BhmHFNcK
Yet, a big reason for that was due to their defensive play, as they kept their first clean sheet since July 28th, having gone eight straight games without keeping a shutout.
Fittingly, the last team they kept scoreless? Pacific, as they beat the Tridents 3-0 back on July 28th in arguably their most complete performance of the season.
This time, however, they didn’t have the same joy offensively as they did on that day, but in a game of playoff-like intensity, they stepped up to the table at the back, keeping an in-form Pacific attack to just 0.92 xG on 14 shots, with none of those attempts being worth more than 0.143 xG.
Naturally, Pacific still had chances to score, as Moses Dyer struck the post late to narrowly miss out on extending his goalscoring streak to five straight matches, but Valour will be pleased with how they mostly otherwise kept them out of dangerous areas.
Having scored in 13 of their last 15 games, they’ve done well to consistently find goals, even if they haven’t been as prolific as hoped at times, scoring just 20 times across those 15 games, which is why they will have wanted to emphasize tightening things at the back ahead of this crucial six-pointer.
Jonathan Viscosi, what a stop 👏
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) October 1, 2024
He picks up the @allstatecanada Save of the Match 🧤#CanPL pic.twitter.com/SvNCroHkgw
Now, by claiming this win, they’ve set themselves up to have a strong end to the season. Sitting with three more games, they’ve got two of them at home coming against Forge and Cavalry, with their lone road game being away to Vancouver, who have the worst home record in the CPL at the moment.
Certainly, the two matches against Forge and Cavalry won’t be easy, as Forge can clinch the regular season title with a win this weekend, but Valour have also had a favourable record against Forge at home over the years, having amassed a record of 6W-0D-1L in their last seven meetings against them at Princess Auto Stadium.
Therefore, it feels like they’ve got as good of a shot as ever of reaching the CPL playoffs for the first time when looking at this three-game stretch. If they’re to do so, however, they’ll want to use this game as a template of what they can do when their defence is locked in, as they’ll hope to keep finding timely goals the way they did against Pacific. 
Missed opportunities for Cavalry, Ottawa at home:
It feels like the title race is all but over after this weekend, as Forge picked up their fourth victory in their last five games, defeating York United 2-0 in the latest 905 Derby.
With the playoffs right around the corner, Forge have hit another level as of late, as they get set to chase their fifth playoff crown while also looking to bring home a regular season title, eager to become the first team to complete that double.
Now, their magic number to clinch the regular season title is two - meaning that if they gain two points over the last three games, or if Ottawa loses at all, the title is theirs, something that can happen as soon as this weekend.
Given how tight the title race has been this summer, it’s been a surprise to see them pull away the way they have as of late, yet, while their recent form has been a big reason for that (they have a record of 7W-1D-1L in their last nine games), it feels like those around them have gone cold at the wrong time, too.
This past weekend was a perfect example of that, because even though Ottawa and Cavalry were playing at home to two teams just battling to keep their playoff hopes alive, neither side were able to get a win, instead settling for a pair of frustrating draws.
For Cavalry, they were to break open a feisty and cagey game with Vancouver, generating just 0.53 xG on 15 shots. To their credit, they were also quite good defensively, keeping Vancouver to just 0.19 xG on six shots, and they remain the team with the fewest goals against in the league, which bodes well for the playoffs, but that wasn’t able to help them in a game where they needed goals to win.
HIGHLIGHTS: Cavalry FC vs. Vancouver FC | September 28, 2024#CanPL | 📺 @onesoccer pic.twitter.com/TSrGTmu5Sd
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) September 29, 2024
As for Ottawa, they continue to have issues with conceding late goals, something that dates back to last year. Despite going up early and taking control of the game, they slowly started to lose momentum, eventually conceding a 79th minute equalizer on a corner to settle for the 1-1 draw.
GOAL⚓️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) September 29, 2024
The @HFXWanderersFC have found an equalizer vs. Atlético Ottawa, as Nassim Mekidèche heads home from close range after a perfect corner from Lorenzo Callegari
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/XjIjKWxXOi
Ultimately, both weren’t poor games - credit also has to be given to each of the visiting teams for how they played - but for two teams looking to keep pace in the title race, it wasn’t enough.
Yet, it also shows why Forge’s recent run is so impressive.
As seen by Cavalry and Ottawa’s matches, it’s that time of the year when fatigue is starting to become a factor, while the familiarity of opponents is also making matches far cagier - on a weekend where just five goals were scored across four games, that much was evident.
Despite that, Forge continues to find ways to pick up wins, and they’ve now put themselves in an excellent position to win the regular season title, book their third-ever qualification to the Concacaf Champions Cup and put them on the front foot in terms of the playoffs.
Given their pedigree, that’s not surprising to see, but one can wonder what this title race would have looked like if not for all of the late missed opportunities from those around them at the top as of late. 
A quiet week for the strikers:
Quietly, a good Golden Boot race has been brewing, as with three games to go, it’s still too early to declare a sure winner.
Certainly, Rubén del Campo isn’t far off from that territory, as he sits with 11 goals, the lone player to hit double digits and two goals ahead of Brian Wright, whose nine goals has him alone in second place.
After that, however, quite the traffic jam has emerged, as five different players are on eight goals, and three others are on seven goals.
Interestingly, however, none of the 10 players with seven or more goals to their name found the net this weekend, as that Golden Boot race remained at a standstill. Instead, of the five goals scored this past matchday, just one came from an attacker (Forge’s Nana Ampomah) as two came from centre backs (Amer Didić and Nassim Mekideche), one was from a midfielder (Noah Jensen) and the last one was an own goal (from Pacific’s Kevin Ceceri).
GOAL 🔨🔨
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) September 28, 2024
Nana Opoku Ampomah makes it 2-0 for @ForgeFCHamilton vs. @YorkUtdFC, scoring as his team capitalized on a rapid-fire counter-attack late in this 905 Derby clash 💨
🔴 Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/cKjn4L1WxA
Yet, that’s something to watch going forward. Often, as the stakes get raised in games, it can pave the way for some unlikely heroes to step up and deliver the goals.
Sometimes, when all of the attention is on the stars, who are expected to shine and deliver in the big games, that can open the door for some different contributors to step up, and that ended up occurring this weekend.
At the same time, that doesn’t mean that it’ll be that way the rest of the year. As seen in last year’s playoffs, there is plenty of room for the stars to shine at this time of the year, given that the best seem to find a way to make things happen in the biggest moments.
And that’s good news for the Golden Boot race. Perhaps, del Campo will put an end to it this weekend by scoring a couple of goals, or maybe someone else will give it a new life with a big multi-goal performance.
Either way, it feels like we’re not done seeing movement there, as it’s unlikely we see the season finish with del Campo on 11, Wright on nine and that logjam of players stuck at eight underneath them.
Given that goalscorers don’t like to be kept quiet for very long, look for them to prove that this weekend, as they look to find form for the end of the season, which is the time of the year their clubs would love for them to be in their best form. 
Who caught my eye: Loïc Kwemi
After making 10 appearances off the bench for Valour since his midseason arrival from CS Saint-Laurent, Kwemi was handed his first start in their clash against Pacific, going 77 minutes in the win.
And he made the most of those 77 minutes, too, as he was lively in the attack, popping up in several dangerous spots.
Sitting with two assists in just over 150 minutes heading into this game, he’s done well to earn this opportunity, and could earn more starting looks over the last few games as he looks to help spark Valour’s late playoff push. 
What I’m watching this week: Valour vs Forge
There are some big six-pointers at both ends of the table this week, as York United hosts Atlético Ottawa and the Halifax Wanderers host Vancouver, but it’s hard to ignore the clash between Valour and Forge out in Winnipeg.
Of course, there’s the fact that this game could put an end to the regular season title race, but it’s important to remember how big a win could be for Valour, too.
Given how well they’ve done against Forge at home in the past few years, they could be primed to pick up a result that will shake up the table a bit, which could be interesting to see play out.
