AGR's High Press: Here comes another Cavalry surge | Just what the doctor ordered for Atlético Ottawa?
The Canadian Premier League table continues to shift, as another big week of wins provided more movement at both ends of the spectrum.
For a second straight week, all of the CPL matches from this matchday yielded winners, as draws continue to be a rare sight over this past month of action.
Across the last 17 CPL matches, 16 of them have yielded winners, with just one match, a 1-1 draw between Pacific FC and York United on August 2nd, failing to deliver in that regard across this most one month stretch.
That’s massive for the table, as more wins create more movement, especially when there are several six-point matches, of which there have certainly been a few as of late.
Now, however, the table has clearly split after the most recent weekend, in which some key results have led to the isolation of the top and bottom four.
At the top, the top four are now split by just four points, before a seven-point gap opens up between the fourth-place side and fifth. From there, things tighten up again, with just three points between fifth and seventh, and then a four-point gap from seventh to eighth, making for a lively race for the last playoff spot.
Because of that, as long as this movement continues, it’s shaping up to be quite the entertaining final stretch of CPL action, leading to a grandstand finish at both ends.
With that in mind, here’s what stood out from the latest week of CPL action in the latest “High Press”.
Here comes the Cavalry:
When Cavalry were crowned 2023 CPL regular season champions, a key stretch stood out for them en route to their title - a five-game win streak from September into early October of last year, which helped create the separation they needed to win the title by 13 points.
It’s too early to say what will happen in this year’s title race with how tight it is between the top four, but if Cavalry are to repeat as winners, a similar stretch over the past few weeks will have been crucial to those efforts.
After spending most of the season in the middle of the table, in large part due to a run that saw them draw nine of their first 15 games, they’ve started to get back to winning ways, currently on a four-game win streak after picking up a massive victory away to York United this weekend.
A stretch that includes three pivotal road victories, they’ve started to look like Cavalry of old and that’s a worry for the rest of the field, who will have been relieved to see Cavalry sputter to start the year after their dominant 2023 regular-season showing.
GOAL 🐴@CPLCavalryFC LEAD! Maël Henry puts the visitors ahead after a beautiful strike from just inside the box to the top right corner 💫
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 17, 2024
🔴 Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/agGFGWoDOa
Yet, this isn’t surprising to see as Cavalry have been lurking all year. They might have been drawing games, but they weren’t losing them and were quietly posting some strong defensive numbers, with their attack being what was slowing them down.
They’ve started to put those woes behind them as of late, however, as they’ve scored eight goals across this four-game win streak, after scoring just 15 goals in their first 15 CPL games. In particular, a few names have been key for them in that regard, as Ali Musse has scored twice and chipped in with an assist, Maël Henry and Daan Klomp have each scored a pair of goals, and Fraser Aird has scored a goal and added two assists.
It’s not surprising to see Aird chip in, to be fair, as he’s been Cavalry’s most consistent piece offensively this year with three goals and four assists, but what the others have done has been key.
GOAL 🐴🐴
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 17, 2024
Fraser Aird gets the rebound after a quick counter-attack and scores from a tight angle to put @CPLCavalryFC ahead for a 2nd time tonight 🔴
🔴 Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/CYHaQV7nWg
Musse is the big one, as he’s missed a large chunk of this year with injuries after winning the CPL’s Player’s Player of the Year award in 2023, as his return has been massive for the team. Both in terms of the threat he provides whenever on the ball, as well as his off-ball threat, his return has altered Cavalry’s attack significantly, giving them a key option to play through.
Then, Maël Henry has been another big one, as he’s slotted in nicely into a starting role as of late. Given that he’ll be relied upon to get Cavalry over the line in terms of U21 Canadian minutes, it’s been great to also see him step up and be a force offensively while doing so, with his most recent goal, a thunderbolt against York, the latest example of what he can do.
Lastly, that’s all helped someone like Daan Klomp, who has struggled to score all year after scoring five goals in 2023. To be fair, he’s also had some rough luck in front of goal, but he’s now benefitted from having the presence of more creators like Musse and Henry, which has been key to helping him rediscover his finishing touch.
And for what it’s worth, Cavalry’s attack is still yet to hit the maximum gear, either. While they’ll be pleased to see Musse, Aird, Henry and Klomp all shining, they’ve also seen Tobias Warschewski go quiet as of late, as he hasn’t scored in five straight after starting the year with seven goals in 14 games.
If they can get Warschewski going again on top of what they’ve got brewing with the rest of their offensive group, scoring goals shouldn’t be a problem for the rest of the year for Cavalry.
That’s huge, as they’ve remained elite defensively, sitting with the lowest goals and Expected Goals against (per WyScout), and haven’t shifted much in that regard all season long. That’s why they were drawing games when they couldn’t score and why they’ve started winning now that they’ve found their goals.
Because of that, they’ll look to keep this run going offensively, as they’ve quietly emerged as a strong favourite in this new title race, both in terms of their pedigree as last year’s winners and what they’ve shown lately. 
Just what the doctor ordered for Atlético Ottawa:
After a four-game winless run that included three straight losses, Atlético Ottawa were looking to grab any possible momentum out of a massive match against a slumping Pacific side this past weekend, as they made the long trip out to Vancouver Island.
No longer sitting atop the table despite spending most of the season in that position, they were just happy to get a win of any sort, allowing them to keep pace in the title race.
And they certainly got that, as they picked up a commanding 3-0 win, scoring three early goals en route to a comfortable victory over the Tridents.
With that, they were able to remain within touching distance of first-place Forge, setting themselves up nicely ahead of a crucial road clash against eighth-place Halifax this upcoming weekend.
GOAL 🦖
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 17, 2024
WHAT A START FOR THE VISITORS! Aboubacar Sissoko puts @atletiOttawa ahead with a great header to the bottom right corner ⚽️
🔴 Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/vlLWGn0QxF
Not only that, but they were able to return to doing some of the things that they’ve done well throughout this year, too.
Firstly, they got off to a hot start, scoring early, and then made sure to add to their lead not long after. As seen in a couple of recent results such as their 4-1 road loss to York United, or a 2-2 home draw with Valour, they’ve done well to score early in games, but have failed to then find a second or third goal after that, allowing their opponents to get back into this game.
In this Pacific game, however, they did well to quickly add to their lead, which then allowed them to do what they do best - close out the game with a masterful defensive performance.
Despite keeping just 32% of possession in the second half of this game as Pacific chased any hint of momentum, Ottawa kept them at bay, ensuring that none of the nine second-half Pacific shots were worth more than 0.15 xG. Sitting in a compact 5-4-1, they did well to take away space on Pacific’s narrow field, keeping Pacific to the outside and away from the dangerous areas of the field.
Therefore, while it wasn’t the most glamorous second half Ottawa performance, as they had just three shots to go along with their limited possession, they were able to comfortably grind out a road result without straining their team too much. Across a long season, that’s valuable, especially when considering that away to Pacific is their toughest trip in terms of travel, and is a trip they’ll no longer have to make this regular season.
Now, they’ll look to build some momentum off the back of this win. Sitting with 17 points in nine road games compared to 15 points from 10 home games, they’ve been slightly better at grinding out road results compared to at home, so they’ll see a stretch of three road games across their next four matches as a favourable schedule.
They build some momentum across those matches, and that’ll set them up nicely for a run of three home games across their last five matches, which will be pivotal for them in the title race.
GOAL 🦖🦖🦖
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 17, 2024
IT’S 3 FOR @atletiOttawa! 😱
Rubén del Campo triples the away side’s lead, and the game might be over before the end of the first half… 🫢
🔴 Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/5ZxzQSsBzU
Because of that, this Pacific win is hoped to be a key catalyst for a side that appears to have all the right ingredients but had swayed away from what had worked for them earlier in the year, especially defensively. At the same time, it feels like their attacking play has been linked to their defence, as they do well to defend leads, so they’ll hope to see more outbursts like this one.
Plus, they’ll be happy to see that Rubén del Campo scored after a bit of a mini-slump, as when he’s been in form this year, so has his team, which is why it’s not been surprising to see that he’d failed to score across Ottawa’s recent slump. If they’re to climb back up the table, they’ll need del Campo and all of their attackers firing, helping provide the support their defensive play requires.
For this week, they had that, and they’ll look to show this is a return to their earlier season form and not a one-game blip among their recent struggles. 
What’s happening with Halifax?
It’s hard to think of a worse possible week for the Halifax Wanderers, who lost three straight road games to remain mired at the bottom of the CPL standings, seven points off the fifth and final playoff spot.
Now without the extra game in hand that they’ve had on most of the field for months, too, it’s put them in a precarious situation with 10 games to go, where they’ll need to put together a stretch for the ages if they’re to make the postseason.
Yet, as has been the case for most of the season, it’s been hard to put a finger on how the Wanderers have ended up in this situation. Certainly, there are some obvious factors, as they’ve struggled to fill the hole at the striker position that bothered them in 2023 and have lost some of the depth scoring they had to make up for it, they’ve struggled defensively, and have also lost the cohesion they had in their lineup last year.
That’s proven to be a bad recipe for the Wanderers, who have now lost four of their last five games as a result of that.
GOAL 🎖️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 18, 2024
Dan Nimick heads the ball into his own net 🤯 @ValourFootball are level!
🔴 Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/JouxfUqFQn
At the same time, it’s not as if they’ve been getting blown out across these games, and their underlying numbers have remained solid - they’ve won the xG battle in five of their last seven games. As a result, they remain fourth in the CPL for Expected Points (per WyScout), sitting second in xG for, but third-last in xG against, showing that their strength has remained their ability to generate chances.
Despite that, luck has remained a big enemy, as they’re underperforming both metrics by several goals, as they haven’t been able to get the finishing luck their strong offensive play deserves, and have conceded several more goals than their already leaky defensive record indicates they should.
Yet, they haven’t been able to create their own luck in that regard. Offensively, they’ve been unable to find some consistency in any of their attacking partnerships, as other than a stretch where Massimo Ferrin, Ryan Telfer and Clément Bayiha looked to form a dangerous trio before an injury split them up, they’ve struggled to find what their best combination of players is in the attack.
Then, defensively, they’ve continued to be quite sloppy in key moments, which is why they’ve only kept three clean sheets all season long. In particular, direct balls over the top and crosses have seemed to be their kryptonite as of late, which is why they’ve conceded 12 goals in their last five games.
GOAL 🎖️🎖️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 18, 2024
WHAT A FINISH FROM JORDAN SWIBEL!! The Australian forward puts @ValourFootball ahead from a tough angle ⚽️
🔴 Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/tXPxf4cr4C
Safe to say, that leaves Patrice Gheisar with plenty to ponder as he figures out how to get this team back on track as they try and make the playoffs for a second straight season. With four of their next six games at home, including three against top-four teams, they’ve got a big opportunity to right the ship ahead of them, one that could define their season.
Based on the numbers, there’s no reason why this side is battling at the bottom of the table, but the eye test has suggested this has been fully deserved, so they’ll now have to prove that they have indeed been unlucky if they’re to make the playoffs.
If not, it’ll be a strange season of what-if’s for a side that was supposed to compete near the top of the table after a surprise 2023 breakout. 
Who caught my eye? Ilias Iliadis
In his second stint with Atlético Ottawa, Iliadis has hit the ground running and was excellent for them in their huge win over Pacific.
Despite playing an intriguing hybrid role, as he pushed up into midfield in possession before dropping into a defensive position off the ball, he was able to contribute at both ends, even chipping in with a memorable Olimpico goal.
Yet, that’s a big reason why his return was a boost to this Ottawa side - he is a flexible player, one who can slot in out wide or centrally, which will help give Ottawa some more tactical variety that they were maybe lacking earlier in the season, which led to this recent slump. What he was able to do in this game shows that, and they’ll hope he can continue to provide that in the weeks to come as they look to regain their form.
GOAL 🦖🦖
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 17, 2024
An Olimpico? In the #CanPL, we like to call this a Saturday.
ILIAS ILIADIS DOUBLES THE LEAD FOR @atletiOttawa STRAIGHT FROM THE CORNER KICK!
🔴 Watch LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/4FBTej91DO
What I’m watching: Valour vs Vancouver
There’s a fascinating race brewing for the fifth and final CPL playoff spot, and this game will be a big one in that regard, as fifth-place Vancouver visits sixth-place Valour in a true six-pointer.
With just three points separating the two sides, a win could be massive for either side, as Vancouver could open up a six-point gap with a win, while Valour could finally leap into a top-five spot after spending most of the year near the bottom of the table.
Because of that, it’ll be fascinating to see how both sides manage this game, especially given that Valour’s been in good form as of late, while Vancouver has struggled against everyone not named Pacific FC, something they’ll want to change with what’s at stake in this match.
Therefore, while one definitely won’t want to ignore the top-of-the-table clash between York United and Forge that also goes down this weekend, don’t forget this crucial battle between Valour and Vancouver, which could have big implications on the table going forward.
