AGR's High Press: Forge's road woes continue as the race for fifth place heats up
Everyone still has something to play for in the Canadian Premier League right now.
Certainly, the split between the top four and bottom four of the CPL continues to get more and more pronounced by the week, as it feels like there’s a clear split between the four teams who have their playoff spots all but assured and are now gunning for the title, and those who are just battling to get into the dance, but there’s still lots to play for across the board.
Just look at the race for the fifth playoff spot, which is as wide-open as ever after this weekend’s results, with three points separating fifth and eighth place.
Usually, at this time of year, a team or two might already be playing for next year, but not now, as everyone remains alive in one of two races that have formed in the CPL.
And no matter if you’re following the title race or the race for the final playoff spot, there is plenty of drama to enjoy in both, with six-point matches galore remaining on the schedule.
So all of that to say - savour what’s to come. This week, the race for the final playoff spot will take more centre stage, but both races remain crucial for different reasons, as outlined later in this piece.
Here’s a look at that, as well as what else stood out from this past weekend of CPL action, in this week’s ‘High Press’.
A rare off-day for Forge as road woes continue:
Forge had a big chance to take a key step towards clinching their second-ever regular season title this past weekend, as they visited a Halifax Wanderers side fresh off a 3-0 loss away to Pacific in which they lost three key regulars to suspension (two for red cards in Dan Nimick and Cale Loughrey, one for yellow card accumulation in Jérémy Gagnon-Laparé).
Despite that, however, Forge never really managed to get into the game against a shorthanded Wanderers side, who hit them early and often en route to a massive 3-0 win for their playoff hopes.
For Forge, though, it continued a key theme for them this season - they’ve struggled to pick up points away from home relative to their usual standard.
They’ve not been poor on the road, as they sit fifth in the CPL in road points with 10 from 11 games, but they’ve won just twice in 11 road games. After amassing 23 points from 14 road games in 2023, that’s a surprise.
Despite that, Bobby Smyrniotis isn’t too worried. For as good as they were on the road last year, they struggled a bit more at home, picking up 19 points from 14 home games.
Given that they’ve already picked up 31 points from 12 home games, sitting with a record of 10W-1D-1L at Tim Hortons Field, they’ve done well to make up for their road woes by being nearly perfect at home, which has allowed them to sit atop the table - ultimately, that’s all that Smyrniotis and Forge will care about.
At the same time, that adds another layer to why it feels strange to see Forge’s road woes. Given that they’re so dominant at home, it feels like there’s no reason why they can’t replicate that away from home, especially after proving last year that they were comfortable playing away from Tim Hortons Field.
Yet, there is also one big thing for Forge to watch out for if they’re to turn around these road woes - their defensive form.
Usually one of the top sides in the CPL in terms of their defensive xG numbers, those have slipped up this year. Despite sitting third in goals against with 27, they’re now fifth in xG against with 29.12 xG per WyScout’s model, meaning they’ve slightly overperformed defensively.
It's likely based on their home/road split, as they’ve conceded 10 goals in their 12 home games compared to 17 in 11 road games. That’s key to note, as they’ve naturally scored less on the road than at home, as they’ve got a very impressive 27 goals in 12 home games, and only 12 goals in 11 road games.
League-leaders in both xG for and goals for, there’s no doubt that they can score goals on their day, especially at home, but it can be harder to find those goals away from home where different factors can come into play, which is why it’s important to be defensively solid in those games.
Because of that, keep an eye on Forge’s defensive performances in their three remaining road games, which come against Vancouver, Valour and Pacific. With just two home games left, coming against fellow title-contenders York United and Atlético Ottawa, they’ll feel confident they can win those big six-point matches, but there will be pressure for them to find results in the three road games, as that could prove to be the difference in the title race given how tight the top of the table is.
Otherwise, a big credit to the Wanderers for their performance in this match, as they managed to keep their playoff hopes in a good spot after earning a big favour from Pacific this past weekend - fitting the pair kick off this next match week with a crucial midweek match that serves as both teams game in hand on the rest of the league. 
York, Ottawa and Cavalry miss opportunity to climb table:
Luckily for Forge, their road loss to the Wanderers didn’t have as big of an impact as it could’ve, as their three other competitors in the title race all dropped points as part of a strange weekend.
None of them lost, as York drew Valour while Ottawa and Cavalry drew each other, so they all at least gained a point on Forge, but one can only wonder what a win from either of those teams could’ve done for them.
For Ottawa, it could’ve put them just one point behind Forge, which could’ve set the table for them to overtake them this weekend if all went right for them.
GOAL 🦖@AtletiOttawa opens the scoring early vs. @CPLCavalryFC as Manny Aparicio gets his head on a corner for his fourth of the season 😎
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) September 15, 2024
🔴 Watch our @tonybet_Canada #CanPL MOTW on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/Dg5BMWd18m
Meanwhile, York could’ve narrowed the gap between them and Forge to three points, which is key given that they’re set to play Forge on September 28th in a massive six-point clash.
GOAL 👑@YorkUtdFC open the scoring vs. @ValourFootball as 16-year-old Shola Jimoh gets his second #CanPL goal 😎
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) September 14, 2024
🔴 Watch LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/lTNyaj8hxD
Then, Cavalry missed a huge chance to narrow the gap between them and Forge to four points, as they now sit six points away from the league lead. For what it’s worth, they’ve arguably got the easiest schedule of the top four teams, as they’ll play the bottom four sides in their last four games, but they don’t have a head-to-head with Forge left the same way that Ottawa and York do to help them make up some ground.
GOAL 🐎🐎@CPLCavalryFC find ANOTHER equalizer for 2-2 vs. @AtletiOttawa as Ali Musse finds Daan Klomp with the free-kick + header combo 👀
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) September 15, 2024
🔴 Watch our @tonybet_Canada #CanPL MOTW on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/TCoPczol6R
Speaking of the schedule, however, it’ll be interesting to see who makes the most of their last five games now.
For example, Cavalry might have an easier run on paper, but those games will all be tough given how much is at stake for the bottom four teams as they push for the fifth and final playoff spot, and it’s worth noting that Cavalry’s have some tough travel to deal with.
Then, with Forge, they’ve also got some extremely tough travel, with trips to Vancouver and Pacific still sitting on their schedule, which is never easy to navigate.
Conversely, Ottawa is set up quite nicely to go on a run - they don’t have to leave Ontario for the rest of the season, sitting with three home games and two road games against Forge and York, which is huge for them.
Lastly, there’s York, who won’t have to leave Ontario until mid-October, as three of their next four games are at home, with the road match being away to Forge, before they finish the season away to Halifax.
When looking at that, it’s hard to know who has the biggest advantage, as there are positives and negatives to each situation, especially when considering factors such as home and road splits.
One thing’s for sure - this title race looks set to come down to the wire, which is an exciting proposal, so keep an eye out for more movement in the weeks to come. 
What to make of the bottom 4 race?
Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, things remain arguably even more interesting, as after a week where two of the bottom four teams won and the other picked up points, the gap between the fifth and final playoff spot and eighth place is now just three points.
Not only that, but after Pacific’s win over Vancouver this past weekend, as they defeated their Salish Sea Derby rivals to snap a five-game losing streak in that fixture, Pacific now sits in a tie with Vancouver for fifth place with 26 points, with Valour following in seventh place with 23 points, tied with the Halifax Wanderers.
That sets up some massive games over the next couple of weeks, especially after the midweek clash between the Wanderers and Pacific that will finally put everyone in the table on equal numbers in terms of games played.
Given that the Wanderers play Valour on matchday #24, Pacific plays Valour on matchday #25, the Wanderers play Vancouver on matchday #26 and Vancouver plays Valour on matchday #27, there could be lots more movement to come in this congested race.
Now, however, what will be most fascinating to see is who ultimately steps up and takes that fifth spot, as there could be an argument for each team to do so.
With Vancouver, there’s the fact that they’ve been in a playoff spot all season long, as they’ll look to use that advantage to help them keep their opponents underneath them as they push forward.
Meanwhile, with Pacific, it feels like they’re peaking and playing their best soccer at the perfect time, which is huge given where they’re at in their schedule.
GOAL 🔱🔱🔱
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) September 14, 2024
IT’S 3 FOR THE TRIDENTS! DARIO ZANATTA AGAIN! The @Pacificfccpl forward scores his 2nd of the night to surely secure all 3 points ✅
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/waJ72N8tiO
Then, with Valour, they’ve been quietly picking up points and will play four of their last five games at home, which is a huge advantage they can use in their favour.
Lastly, with the Wanderers, they have some good underlying numbers and will hope they can turn those into more results like the one they had against Forge this weekend, which they’ll use as a proof of concept in terms of how good they can be as a team.
Speaking of underlying numbers, however, it’s worth having a quick look at each team’s xG for and against to get an idea of who might get hot and who might cool down over this last stretch.
Offensively, the Wanderers have the most xG of the bottom four teams with 33.13, which is third overall in the CPL, followed by Pacific with 29.22 (fifth in CPL), Vancouver with 25.86 (sixth in the CPL) and Valour with 23.92 (eighth in the CPL). Interestingly, Halifax is underperforming their xG for by four goals, while Pacific is underperforming theirs by nine goals, making their respective three-goal outbursts this weekend look like something they could be set for more of over the next few weeks.
Meanwhile, defensively, Pacific leads the way with 26.08 xG against (third in the CPL), followed by Halifax with 30.11 (sixth in the CPL), Vancouver with 35.86 (seventh in the CPL) and Valour with 38.97 (eighth in the CPL). Interestingly, Pacific has overperformed that metric by three goals, while Halifax has underperformed by five goals, Vancouver by over two and Valour is pretty much bang on in terms of what’s expected.
When looking at all of that, the two teams to watch are Pacific and Halifax, further showing why their game in hand is so crucial (so if you’re reading this after they play, make sure to go back and see how that one went down). Given that they’ve both got a positive expected goal differential and sit fourth and fifth in the CPL in expected points, they’ve been due to hit form and will look to their recent results as an example of that.
GOAL 🌊🌊🌊
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) September 14, 2024
SEAN REA, THAT’S AMAZING! The @HFXWanderersFC have a 3rd and secure a crucial victory after Rea dribbles past 2 players to tap it into the net! ⚽️
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/QlEzNGqxWy
At the same time, don’t rule out Valour and Vancouver, as Valour’s numbers are skewed by their early-season road adventures, while Vancouver will be looking to find a bit of consistency in their game as they try and bust out of a slump, so they’ll want to prove they’re not done making noise in this race. 
Who caught my eye? Giorgio Probo
There were lots of performances that caught the eye for the Halifax Wanderers in their big win over Forge, such as Andre Rampersad’s continued growth as a box-arriving midfielder, Sean Rea’s magical dribbling and more, but Giorgio Probo’s might’ve been the best performance of them all.
Having bounced in and out of the team throughout this season, Probo’s performance served as a reminder of what he can do as a #10, as he scored his team’s opener before setting up Rampersad for the second.
GOAL 🌊@HFXWanderersFC lead! Giorgio Probo puts the hosts ahead with an easy finish inside the box ⚽️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) September 14, 2024
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/5XJI5zo2i1
Not only that, but he seemed dangerous every time he touched the ball, too, making him tough to defend. For a Wanderers team that has had to rotate their attack a lot due to injuries and other factors, they’ll hope he can finish the season like this because there could be some fun to be had in a duo of him and Rea. 
What I’m watching: Valour vs Halifax Wanderers
While most might be keeping an eye on what’s going on higher up the table, it feels like this upcoming clash between Valour and Halifax could be massive for both, no matter how the Wanderers do in midweek.
If Valour wins, they’re right back into the mix, especially if Vancouver and Pacific drop points - given that they’re playing Forge and Ottawa respectively, that’s not an unlikely scenario.
Meanwhile, a Wanderers win could be just as huge, especially if they pick up points in midweek, giving them a chance to dream of going on a late run to secure a playoff spot.
Because of that, there are plenty of reasons to want to tune into this Saturday afternoon clash at Princess Auto Stadium in Winnipeg, given what it could mean for both sides' playoff hopes.
