AGR's High Press: Forge clinches CPL Shield but chaos continues to reign for rest of table
The first domino has fallen.
That, of course, is the CPL Shield, which was officially clinched by Forge FC this weekend as they defeated Valour to book some silverware with two matches to spare in the regular season.
Between that and the fact that four of the five playoff spots are clinched, it doesn’t leave much to play for over the last two weeks, right?
The good news is that’s far from being the case. The beauty of the CPL’s playoff format comes at moments like this, as there is a huge difference between finishing second and fourth in terms of one’s playoff hopes, which will push the three other playoff-bound teams to finish as strongly as possible to get into a top two spot.
Combined with the race for the fifth and final playoff spot, which sees the four-team logjam between fifth place and last place separated by just one point, and that leaves plenty for teams to play for over the next two matchdays.
That’s good, as sometimes the worry with this time of the year is that the intensity can drop off for certain teams as they focus on getting ready for the playoffs, which won’t be the case for anyone not named Forge (and even then it’s hard to imagine Forge slowing down as they look to finish on a high note).
Because of that, don’t look away before the playoffs start, as plenty is still to be decided over the last two weekends, starting this weekend on the penultimate matchday.
Before looking too far forward, however, here’s what stood out from Matchday #26 of the CPL in this week’s ‘High Press’.
Red cards play a big role in Matchday #26:
This weekend kicked off with a feisty game out in Nova Scotia, as the Halifax Wanderers hosted Vancouver FC in a massive clash between two teams looking to battle for that fifth and final spot in the CPL.
With what was at stake, it ended up being a naturally chippy match, as both teams came out strongly, giving the match playoff-like intensity.
As a result, emotions bubbled over a few times, with Vancouver losing Elage Bah to a pair of quick yellow cards in the 32nd minute, before the Wanderers lost Zachary Fernandez to a straight red card in the 80th minute.
RED CARD 🔴
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 5, 2024
Elage Bah of @vanfootballclub is shown a 2nd yellow and the visitors will be down a man for 60+ minutes! 😳
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/D2h2hLaatO
RED CARD 🔴
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 5, 2024
Zachary Fernandez of @HFXWanderersFC is shown a straight red after pushing Austin Ricci. 10v10 for the last minutes! 👀
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/RZCPp3waG4
Then, later that day, Pacific hosted Cavalry in a massive game, as they had a chance to build a three-point lead on Vancouver in fifth, having witnessed Vancouver and Halifax draw in a game where a win could’ve been massive for either side’s playoff hopes.
Unfortunately for Pacific, however, red card trouble hurt them early, as Emil Gazdov was sent off for handling the ball well outside of his box in just the 3rd minute, leaving Pacific to play down a player for most of the game.
RED CARD 🛑
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 5, 2024
Goalkeeper Emil Gazdov inexplicably punches the ball away OUTSIDE THE BOX! @Pacificfccpl will be down a man for the entirety of the match 😱
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/hOw2a4VFAF
To their credit, they made a game of it, as despite going down 1-0 in the 35th minute, they tied up the game in the 38th minute and didn’t concede a second goal until the 61st minute, but then the floodgates opened as Cavalry scored a pair of goals in the 75th and 77th minute to secure a 4-1 win. Naturally frustrated by the nature of the match, Pacific then picked up a second red card late, as Kevin Ceceri was sent off after earning two yellow cards.
RED CARD 🛑
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 5, 2024
Kevin Ceceri is shown a 2nd yellow and is sent off. @Pacificfccpl is down to 9 men 😯
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/ERygQGsa2S
Meanwhile, the next day, York United hosted Atlético Ottawa in a hugely important game in the race for second place, as both teams looked to keep pace with Cavalry after their big win on Saturday. In the end, York picked up a crucial 1-0 win, and they were helped by the fact that Ottawa played down a player for 65 minutes after Liberman Torres earned a straight red card for a headbutt.
RED CARD🟥@atletiOttawa is down to 10 players for the rest of this clash vs @yorkutdfc as Liberman Torres is sent off after a run-in with Josué Martínez
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 6, 2024
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/fuXHWFak9b
Surprisingly, that’d be the last red card of the weekend, although the feistiness of the all-Ontario clash instead extended off the field to the press conferences.
With that, it meant there were five red cards handed out on the weekend, which was quite the anomaly - heading into this weekend, there were 19 red cards given out in the previous 25 matchdays - an average of one red card every five games, meaning there was typically less than one red card a weekend.
This matchday, however, that number skyrocketed, which was a surprise to see.
And now, it could have a big cost for the teams who lost players, given that they’ve now all been suspended for the upcoming weekend.
Of course, one can understand that games this time of the year might have a bit of extra spice, but it’s important that teams are able to balance feistiness with discipline, as that can pay off down the road.
Now, for example, Vancouver, Pacific and Halifax will all be without key players ahead of a massive matchday, and in the case of Halifax, for more than that, as Fernandez was suspended for three games due to violent conduct (Ceceri was only suspended one game as his red card came from two yellow cards; ditto goes for Elage Bah, while Gazdov’s sending off wasn’t of the violent nature).
At this time of year, where teams are already struggling with injuries, it can be tough to lose players due to suspensions, especially avoidable ones, as it certainly felt like a few of them were.
Yet, that’s something to watch heading into this next weekend. Not only in terms of more red cards, but in terms of yellow card accumulation, as those who still have something to play for will want to find a balance between bringing the intensity and keeping all 11 players on the pitch and available for the weeks to come.
This weekend, that discipline might’ve cost a few sides some points, and at a costly time of the season to do so. 
Callum Irving shines but could Vancouver have done more?
Despite there being frustration from both sides in terms of dropped points in the 1-1 draw between Halifax and Vancouver, it certainly feels like Vancouver emerged as the bigger winners from that result, especially after Pacific and Valour both ended up losing later that weekend.
With that, Vancouver can now even clinch a playoff spot this weekend, and at least sit in a position to put themselves in the driver’s seat in that race heading into the last matchday should they win against Valour at home.
Yet, they can thank goalkeeper Callum Irving for that, as their veteran goalkeeper stepped up in a big way to help ensure they not only emerged with a point, but also ensured that Halifax didn’t get all three (which would’ve put them in the driver’s seat for that fifth and final spot).
CALLUM IRVING DENIES RYAN TELFER RIGHT IN FRONT OF THE NET! 🧤
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 5, 2024
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/xVFZCePdQq
Despite going down a player as early as they did, Vancouver bent but didn’t break defensively, as it took until the 98th minute for the Wanderers to score, allowing them to ensure that Vancouver’s surprise 50th-minute penalty goal from Alejandro Díaz didn’t end up as the winner.
Had Irving not been in net for Vancouver, the Wanderers would’ve likely tied things up much earlier (or even opened the scoring first), opening the door for them to chase a late winner instead of an equalizer.
The numbers speak for themselves - despite facing 12 shots, Irving turned away 11 of them in a dominant performance.
Not only that, but the shots were of a high-quality variety - WyScout had those 12 shots as worth 3.17 post-shot expected goals, meaning Irving saved over two goals above expected, which is an elite goalkeeping performance.
Just for context, Irving has faced over 3 post-shot Expected Goals two other times this season - both times he conceded three goals, showing how big of a performance it was from him.
One of the best @CPLsoccer Goalkeeping performances of all time from @CallumIrving 😱🧤
— Vancouver Football Club (@vanfootballclub) October 9, 2024
Watch his best saves from a record breaking performance last Saturday against HFX Wanderers that earned him CPL player of the Week! 👀
🎥: @onesoccer #VancouverFC #CanPL #WhateverItTakes pic.twitter.com/wnCdUEwh1y
To his credit, he’s been putting in big showings all year - despite facing the highest post-shot xG of 39.61, almost six full xG ahead of the next best goalkeeper, and a league-high 132 shots, he’s done well to not leak goals, as he’s prevented -2.39 goals, which is not bad at all given the volume of attempts he faces.
Given that there are three other regular starters with lower numbers with him despite facing far fewer high-quality looks, that’s a credit to Irving and his play, which makes it less surprising to see him have a big showing like this one.
Unfortunately for Vancouver, they were unable to turn his heroics into a win, and what will make it worse is that they had a moment to ice it late on. With Halifax desperately throwing players forward, even goalkeeper Yann Fillion started to push and he made an error in possession late, creating a 2v1 for Vancouver where Austin Ricci and Grady McDonnell were faced with a scrambling Fillion well up the pitch.
Austin Ricci had the chance to secure the 3 points for @vanfootballclub, but he couldn’t take advantage of it… Just a few seconds later, the @HFXWanderersFC equalized. Incredible scenes!
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 5, 2024
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/nAvev6da4N
Despite that, Ricci ended up scuffing an attempt at a pass, bailing out the Wanderers, setting up the table for them to score their late equalizer.
But heading into the final two weeks of the season, it’s a big reminder of what Vancouver will need to fix if they’re to hold onto a playoff spot. No doubt, when seeing some of their defensive metrics, they’ll want to be more solid at the back (although the re-insertion of David Norman Jr in the lineup at centre back seems to have given them a boost lately), goals remain a bigger issue.
Having scored just twice in their last six games, that’s why they’ve picked up just two points over that span, as they’ve been unable to get going offensively.
It hasn’t proven costly yet, as they somehow remain in fifth place amid their slump, a credit to the points they accumulated earlier in the year and the missed opportunities of teams around them to capitalize on their misfortunes.
Now, they have a chance to put that slump behind them and finish the year on a high note, but they’ll only be able to do that if they can get going offensively.
If not, they’ll look back at a game like this, one where Irving did his best to give his team a chance to win, and wonder if these dropped points could’ve made the difference for them in the race to make the playoffs. 
An ode to Forge’s title win and what it means for rest of table:
As mentioned earlier, the big story this weekend was that Forge officially clinched their second regular season title and sixth overall trophy, which was a big achievement for the Hammers, who have dominated the CPL playoffs but haven’t always been one to finish atop the regular season mountain.
Part of that has been the challenge of navigating multiple competitions, having made deep runs in the Canadian Championship and Concacaf League in past years, a trade-off they’ll make especially given their playoff success, but there’s no doubt that they’ll have wanted to have more first-place finishes under their belt at this point.
.@ForgeFCHamilton have clinched the CPL Shield!🏆
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 6, 2024
Thanks to their 1-0 road win over Valour, Forge have clinched the CPL Shield as 2024 regular season champions
They'll also participate in the 2025 Concacaf Champions Cup
🔴Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/ajU4yhLKJh
But now that finishing first place has been given a few more incentives for their success, including qualification to the Concacaf Champions Cup, a trophy, and an easier playoff path, they knew they wanted to change that this year, and to their credit, they did so in style.
And that’s scary for the rest of the league, as this now sets up Forge to have a huge advantage heading into the playoffs, which is where they tend to play their best. In particular, the big thing to watch is to see if Forge ends up winning the first semi-final, which they host, setting them up to host a second-straight final.
Having amassed a home record of 11W-1D-1L, and having become the first CPL side to win a playoff final at home last year, the prospect of playing them at Tim Hortons Field in the playoffs is a daunting venture for any side.
Because of that, it feels like Forge is in a prime position to now become the first CPL side to win a regular season and playoff double, as it’ll be hard to bet against their playoff experience heading into the postseason.
GOAL⚒️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 6, 2024
Déja vù from the Hammers?
For the second time in a week, Kyle Bekker finds Noah Jensen in the box, and Jensen makes no mistake to put Forge up 1-0 vs Valour
🔴Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/cHGBH1IEth
Of course, the beauty of the playoffs is that anything can happen. One of Forge’s most dominant teams, its 2021 side, did well to win the regular season despite also making a deep run in the Concacaf League and the Canadian Championship, but they were then surprised by Pacific FC in the final, the lone time they haven’t won the North Star Cup.
Certainly, the remaining playoff field will believe in their capabilities of pulling off something like that, as Cavalry has years of playoff heartbreak at Forge’s hands they’ll want to put behind them, Ottawa has the big game players they can turn to, and York United will feel their familiarity with their rivals could be a big asset.
Because of that, keep an eye on how the rest of the playoff picture shapes up, as the bracket could always throw up some surprises. 
Who caught my eye? Shola Jimoh
York’s 16-year-old sensation continues to impress, and he helped his side pick up a massive victory in the race for second place, scoring the winner against Ottawa.
And, as he’s continued to do all season, he put in a solid performance on both sides of the ball, too, showing good growth from game-to-game.
GOAL🦝@yorkutdfc have finally broken Atlético Ottawa's lines, and it's their 16 y/o winger, Shola Jimoh, who steps up with a big goal for the Nine-Stripes to put his team up 1-0 in the 70th minute
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 6, 2024
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/obgNsoqIhF
That has been what’s most impressive to watch about his game - often, players his age can combine brilliant moments with frustrating patches, which can make it hard for them to pick up regular minutes.
Yet, with Jimoh, there’s been impressive maturity and consistency in his play, which is why York’s trusted him to play in some big games lately, even despite not needing U21 minutes - that last point shows why this run has been key, and why it’ll be important to keep an eye on him in the playoffs. 
What I’m watching: Vancouver FC vs Valour FC
Ultimately, this game will be massive, as it’s the final match of the weekend, so by then we’ll also know all of the playoff permutations that it holds.
No matter what happens, this could have an impact on the playoff race - a Valour loss eliminates them from playoff contention. But depending on the other results, a Vancouver win could clinch them and eliminate Pacific, Halifax and Valour in one big swoop, which would be a big swing of events.
Because of that, it’ll be fascinating to see if Vancouver can bust their slump and carve out a crucial advantage in their race for a playoff spot, or if Valour can continue a strong late-season run and ensure the playoff race remains wide-open heading into the final matchday.
