AGR's High Press: Cavalry reaches final with win over Forge | Ottawa and York quarter-final lives up to hype
It was a thrilling doubleheader in the Canadian Premier League playoffs on Sunday, as Forge hosted Cavalry in the 1v2 qualifying semi-final, while Atlético Ottawa hosted York United in the quarter-finals.
Two rivalry matchups, both ended up delivering in terms of drama, marking a memorable Sunday of action with two entertaining matches.
First, in Ottawa, we saw some history, as for the first time in the CPL’s existence, a playoff game was decided by penalties, with Ottawa and York’s clash going to spot kicks after a thrilling 2-2 draw through 120 minutes. Ultimately, Ottawa survived to advance, avoiding disaster after giving up two leads (one in the 94th minute of regular time and one in extra time), marking a match to remember for all who watched it.
Then, out in Hamilton, Forge and Cavalry ended up adding another memorable chapter to their playoff history. This time, however, there was a different ending than normal, as Cavalry beat Forge in a playoff game for the first time, as they advanced to the CPL final with a 1-0 win at Tim Hortons Field.
This might not be the last they see of Forge in this playoffs, as they’ve dropped into the other semi-final against Atlético Ottawa this weekend, but it’s a big step towards Cavalry’s first North Star Cup, sitting with a big advantage as final hosts.
One spot in the 2024 CPL Final belongs to @CPLCavalryFC, but who will join them at ATCO Field on November 9? 👀
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) October 27, 2024
Here is the updated #CanPL Playoff bracket 📃 pic.twitter.com/eQPUn4QndM
With that in mind, here are three takeaways from this weekend’s slate of playoff action in the latest “High Press”.
Warschewski continues magical campaign for Cavalry:
It’s never easy to replace a Golden Boot winner at any level.
Because of that, it was hard to imagine how Cavalry would recover from the departure of 2023 Golden Boot co-winner, Myer Bevan, who scored 11 goals as Cavalry claimed the CPL Shield but fell in the CPL Final to Forge in 2023, as Bevan went on a personal leave to start the 2024 campaign.
To Cavalry’s credit, however, they ended up striking gold with his replacement, Tobias Warshewski. Signed after not playing at all in 2023, the former FC Edmonton striker ended up filling the boots of Bevan better than anyone could’ve ever expected, as he scored 13 goals in regular season action, winning the Golden Boot outright.
And while his regular season performance was impressive, he found a way to one-up it this weekend, as he ended up scoring the lone goal in Cavalry’s 1-0 win over Forge.
It was a moment of brilliance, too, as the striker managed to take down a beautiful ball over the top from Marco Carducci in stride, gliding past Forge’s goalkeeper Jassem Koleilat with a smooth touch to give his team the lead in the 27th minute.
From there, Cavalry did what they needed to do in order to win, grinding things out defensively to get the result over the line.
Credit has to be given to Warschewski, however, who ensured Cavalry would be able to dictate the game at their terms by scoring the early goal, which is crucial when playing a team like Forge on the road.
Yet, that’s what he’s done all campaign, as Cavalry has a record of 6W-3D-1L in all competitions when he scores, including a record of 5W-3D-1L in CPL play.
For him to build off that in the playoffs, though, is key, as it paid off on a day where the ball wasn’t falling for Ali Musse, Cavalry knew they had another piece to rely on up front.
GOAL 🐎@CPLCAVALRYFC STRIKE FIRST 💥
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 27, 2024
Tobias Warschewski gets on the end of a goal kick and finishes the route one pass for his 14th of the year 😎
🔴 Watch #CanPL PLAYOFFS on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/oJwkhYCMJs
And that’s something to watch heading into the final. No doubt, this Cavalry team has a lot of options offensively - Musse remains the heartbeat of this team offensively, sitting with four goals and four assists in just 1287 minutes of action, while Fraser Aird (3G+4A) and Sergio Camargo (2G+4A) are also two key pieces, but all three are creative players who play at their best when they have an outlet to play off of.
That’s proven to be Warschewski, who is as good of a creator as he is a finisher, and he’s proven to be a perfect fit in this attack and will want to prove that once again in the final.
But while a lot of attention is focused on Cavalry’s attack, don’t discount how important this Forge win was for their defence, either - this may seem wild, but this was actually their first playoff clean sheet.
For a Cavalry side that always seems to be strong defensively in the regular season, they’ve struggled to keep goals out of their net in the postseason.
Now, however, they can head into the final riding the wave of having kept Forge off the board, proving why they conceded just 27 goals in 28 regular season games, sitting with the best xG against record in the league.
Yet, that’s going to be the toughest thing about facing them in the final - they’re elite defensively and have the pieces to hurt you in the attack - that’s usually a pretty good combo to have in these big playoff games. They proved that against Forge, and will look to build on that as they get set for their third final, where they’ll hope for better results than the first two. 
Time to worry for Forge?
The warning signs were there for Forge heading into the playoffs.
At the same time, if it felt like there was a team that could ignore them, it had to be Forge, who have made a habit of knowing how to hit the switch when it came to the playoffs.
Now, however, it looks like it might be time to hit the panic button after their loss to Cavalry, which was their third defeat in a row.
Not only that, but they failed to score in any of those three defeats, which is a big surprise after they finished the year as the league’s highest-scoring team.
To their credit, they’ve remained solid defensively - after a 2-0 loss to Atlético Ottawa on the day they officially lifted the CPL Shield, they only lost 1-0 to Pacific on the final day of the regular season before this 1-0 loss to Cavalry, so it’s not as if they’re getting blown out in recent games.
WHAT A BLOCK ❌
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 27, 2024
Alessandro Hojabrpour spares @ForgeFCHamilton's blushes with a BRILLIANT read on Callum Montgomery's header, which beat the 'keeper but couldn't get past the midfielder who intercepted perfectly 😎
🔴 Watch #CanPL playoffs on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/D6lFB48AWz
Heading into their semi-final matchup against Ottawa, they’ll feel confident they can maintain that level of defensive play and perhaps even improve, as they’ve been defending well as a team, with cheap goals coming from individual mistakes being what’s sunk them.
No doubt, however, the offence will be the bigger priority. And when peeling back the hood and looking at their statistics from the Cavalry match, one can see why.
There, despite 62.1% of possession and generating 16 shots, they struggled to find quality looks at goal, as they finished with just 1.17 xG, generating just one look worth more than 0.2 xG. To be fair, they were unlucky not to score on that one chance, which came when Kyle Bekker headed the ball off the post on a corner, but even then they’ll feel they could’ve done far more than they did.
They got into dangerous areas, as they had 30 touches in Cavalry’s box, but turned that into just seven shots from inside of the box - by comparison, Cavalry had nine shots in Forge’s box despite taking just 18 touches in that area of the pitch.
Unfortunately, however, as was the worry heading into the game, Forge’s lack of clear option up front ended up hurting them. Despite trying to go with Nana Ampomah up front as they tried to replicate what had worked so well for them with Kwasi Poku earlier in the year, Ampomah was unable to click with his teammates, completing just 30 touches across 90 minutes.
That had a big effect on Tristan Borges, in particular, who had just 27 touches across 64 minutes before being withdrawn early, as Ampomah was unable to create the space Borges needed to control the match.
Yet, speaking of Borges, that’s another issue Forge will want to watch out for. Given his early withdrawal in a game where Forge could’ve used his services to help tie things up, it indicates he’s still working his way up to full fitness after missing several games late in the season with an injury.
And he’s not the only one who’s struggled with fitness concerns heading into the playoffs, either, which is something to monitor.
Forge are deep enough to overcome most injury concerns, but there’s no doubt that they’d love to have their main options at 100%. In this Cavalry match, Forge certainly felt like a team not operating at full speed, which is a surprise given that they typically play at their best in the playoffs.
Now, perhaps this loss is what they needed - they’ve put their backs up against the wall and now need to respond, which is where they seem to play their best, so expect a bounceback in their semi-final against Ottawa. 
Ottawa pushed to the brink by York but show survival instinct:
Sometimes, winning trophies is all about survival.
Because of that, Ottawa won’t look back at their win over York and get too nitpicky, as in the end, they showed the sort of survival skills required to win a trophy.
Ideally, they wouldn’t have even been in this game, as they would’ve been one of the top two seeds, but they only have themselves to blame for a late slide that saw them fall out of the top two after spending most of the season there.
All they could do was roll up their sleeves and focus on what they could control, and they did that in their win over York.
GOAL🦕#CanPL. Olimpicos. Only!@atletiOttawa have taken the lead over York United in this playoff quarter-final, as Ollie Bassett scores straight from a corner to make it 1-0
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 27, 2024
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/DE6sWfT8Uz
It was far from an easy match - Ottawa took the lead right after half time through Ollie Bassett and seemed likely to cruise to victory, but failed to capitalize on several chances to put the game away and suffered a late blow at the hands of Shola Jimoh, who found a late equalizer for the Nine-Stripes in the fourth minute of added time, to send this one to extra time.
Then, in extra time, Ottawa looked sure to win before reaching penalties, as Rubén del Campo scored a 92nd-minute penalty to get an early edge, but that lead didn’t last long with York finding a way to respond through a 94th-minute equalizer from Mo Babouli.
GOAL🦕🦕@atletiOttawa have re-found the lead just minutes into extra time!
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 27, 2024
Rubén del Campo makes no mistake from the spot after Sam Salter won a PK just moments earlier to make it 2-1
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/U89e8Itd0k
Despite that, Ottawa kept their heads up and kept going at it, and when the time came to take penalties, they showed strong resolve to win the battle of wits from spot kicks.
No doubt, they’ll look back at this game and feel like they could’ve done much better - they doubled York’s shots (15-8), won the xG battle (2.13-0.59), and were much more accurate with their attempts (they had seven shots on target to York’s two), but in the end, two defensive lapses cost them.
Because of that, they must find a way to build on this game as they get set for Forge. There are a lot of positives Ottawa can take from this game - taking the lead twice is one of them, as is the fact that they limited York’s dangerous opportunities - but there are also a lot of learning lessons.
GOAL🦕@atletiOttawa have advanced to the semi-finals of the #CanPL playoffs!
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 27, 2024
Ilias Iliadis scores the winning penalty vs. York United to send his team to the next round after a dramatic clash
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/FdnA8SeQvg
In particular, their inability to hold onto a lead is the biggest one to watch, as that cost them some valuable points later in the season, and has been an issue they’ve battled for a while dating back to last year.
At the same time, they can look at their ability to survive and build off that, as that’s what the playoffs are all about. It doesn’t matter how one plays if they don’t survive the key moments, and ultimately, Ottawa got the job done. 
As for York, however, it’s worth noting that Jimoh deserves a big shout-out, as he ended up making this game quite entertaining with his late goal in regular time and with an assist on Babouli’s extra time marker.
Sitting at just 16 years of age, it’s rare to see someone that young step up as he did in a key moment, as he came off the bench at half time and dragged his team back into the fight twice.
GOAL🦝@yorkutdfc have secured a LATE equalizer in Ottawa!
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 27, 2024
What a moment for the 16-year-old Shola Jimoh, as he slots home from inside the box in the 94th minute to make it 1-1 vs. Atlético Ottawa
Extra time looming now?
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/EjP28GAhRW
With that, he capped off a memorable first professional season, finishing with four goals and two assists in approximately 600 minutes. A good return for any player, let alone a first-time professional still in high school, it shows a glimpse of his potential, as he looks to be someone York will be able to rely upon heavily in 2025.
GOAL🦝🦝@yorkutdfc have another equalizer vs. Ottawa!
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 27, 2024
Just moments after going down 2-1 in ET, York have made it 2-2, as Mo Babouli nods home from close range after a great Shola Jimoh cross
If you haven't already tuned into this one...
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/wM88xz4pYE
Certainly, one thing’s for sure - more and more eyeballs will be on the 16-year-old after that performance, and for good reason after what he showed.
