AGR's HIGH PRESS: Forge's midfield roars back to life as Valour slips amid homestand woes
Hold on, is that the sound of… a CPL title race!?
It’s been quietly brewing over the past few weeks, but the path to a 2023 Canadian Premier League trophy is now more open than ever.
At one point, it seemed almost inevitable that Pacific FC would cruise to the top spot, but their recent slump has completely opened things up again, bringing several teams back in the mix to claim the CPL's regular season crown – and the Concacaf Champions Cup spot it offers. Led by recent surges from Cavalry FC, the Halifax Wanderers and Atlético Ottawa, as well as some timely wins from Forge FC and York United, only six points now separate first and sixth in the table down this final stretch of a dozen or so matches left in 2023.
It’s hard to say who will claim any of the five playoff spots, let alone the title. You can make an argument for any of the top six teams, really. Even those who are now likely all but out of that title race in Valour FC and Vancouver FC still remain in the playoff hunt, even if their hopes are starting to really hang on by a thread.
Because of that, big six-point games now loom ahead, such as this weekend's clash between Ottawa and Cavalry or York and Halifax – each could prove critical in that title race, and there are only more of those to come over the last few matchdays.
Speaking of big and important clashes, here’s a look back at the week that was in the CPL, in this edition of High Press.
How Forge’s midfield kickstarted a turnaround
It’s easy to forget that just a month ago, Forge FC was teetering on the edge of regular season danger. The Hammer were free-falling down the table, found it difficult to score goals, and seemed to hit rock bottom when they lost 2-0 away to a very young Vancouver side on June 20th.
Since then? Their fortunes have quickly changed. They’ve gone on to claim 10 points from their last five games, and sit in joint-second, just one point off first place (although they’ve played one game more than league leaders Cavalry).
Not only that, but their performances have improved drastically across that stretch of games, too. It started slowly with a gutsy and chaotic win over Ottawa, before they suffered a bit of a setback in a wild loss to Halifax, but then they really hit their stride by demolishing York and drawing Valour in a game they were unlucky not to win.
Then, they got their biggest result of the bunch this past weekend, defeating Pacific FC 2-0 on the road in what was a commanding performance from the defending champions. Paced by two early goals, Forge then closed up shop the rest of the way and picked up a massive W for their title hopes by bringing down another title threat.
The best parth? They did so by playing Forge soccer, a style that had seemingly abandoned them during their early-summer slump.
Their trademark dominance in midfield, where a trio of Kyle Bekker, Noah Jensen and Alessandro Hojabrpour work in passing harmony, emerged victorious by exerting control in this crucial area of the park on both sides of the ball. In particular, Hojabrpour was a machine against his old team, finishing with 47/52 passes (90%), one tackle, one block, six clearances and four recoveries in a commanding performance in midfield.
For those who have been paying attention to Forge’s recent run of form, they won’t be that surprised – there’s a reason why Forge's recent three-game stretch just happened to coincide with Hojabrpour’s return from injury.
A force on both sides of the ball, he's given Forge so much more control in the core, something they were lackinge lacked when he’s not played.
Plus, it’s been able to really free up Bekker, who had to shoulder a lot of the defensive and crowd-control load in recent weeks. Sure, it’s a job that Bekker’s done admirably, to be fair to him – he’s arguably having his best season in a Forge shirt yet, leading the league with five assists – but just having the support of Hojabrpour alongside him has been immense for Bekker, too.
GOAL @ForgeFCHamilton⚒️⚒️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 22, 2023
Forge have made it 2-0 over Pacific, as David Choinière adds to his earlier assist with a well-taken finish from a tight angle, doing well to get on the end of Kyle Bekker's low cross🟠
🔴https://t.co/7JFAUhgRAE pic.twitter.com/HszCmcEUwt
The dynamism of this duo allows a third midfielder, be it Jensen, Aboubacar Sissoko, Khadim Kane or another, to slot in and simply play the role of support, typically defensively. You add in the recent tweak of Alexander Achinioti-Jönsson into a John Stones-esque hybrid midfield/defender role, and it's clear that Forge have been cooking something special in midfield.
But all of that just goes to show how important Hojabpour has become to this Forge team, in just his second year with the club. There’s a reason why Forge has only lost once in games in which he goes more than 70 minutes this season (3W-3D-1L).
So, opposition sides looking to tame the orange dragon will need to keep a handle on this Forge midfield group as the season goes along. Just don't forget to also keep an eye on Terran Campbell’s recent scoring surge, the return of David Choinière from injury and Manjrekar James's strong defensive standing, either (!).
Valour’s playoff hopes on life support?
The numbers don’t look good for Valour FC right now.
The Winnipeg-based outfit have just one win in their last six games, scoring one open-play goal in that span, and have picked up two straight home losses.
Not only that, but the results continue to get more frustrating for Valour as well - after getting throttled on the road by Ottawa and Forge, doing well to even emerge with a point from those two games, a slow start completely sank them against York in a must-win game this past week.
Yet, this York game proved to be a great example of what’s sunk Valour as of late: They gave up two cheap goals that they’ll absolutely want back, and then just couldn’t capitalize on any of their chances when given an opportunity to get back into the game.
Of course, that’s nothing new for Valour, especially when it comes to goals – there’s a reason why they sit with a league-low 13 goals from 16 games, as their offence has struggled all year long. Having generated the second-fewest xG in the league, that’s to be expected, even if they've underperformed massively by scoring four fewer goals than they should have.
Where the big issue has been as of late, however, has been that their defensive record has slipped, as they’ve only kept one clean sheet in their last six games. They’ve continued to defend well, as indicated by them still having conceded the fewest goals in the league, but they’ve looked a lot more human recently.
That’s worrying, as their defensive underlying numbers haven’t been kind to them this season, sitting with the third-highest xG against in the league with 22.78. As a result, the fact that they’ve allowed nearly six goals below expected is the biggest overperformance in the league, by a big margin.
Of course, they’ve also been helped by the dominance of Rayane Yesli, who has still saved 4.39 xG above expected on the year, by and far the best record of any CPL goalkeeper despite his team’s recent slump (of which he’s only slipped from around 5 goals above expected to 4.39).
Yet, for Yesli’s dominance, he can only do so much, and these last few weeks are a great example of that, as there hasn’t been much he’s been able to do about some of the chances his team has allowed in front of them.
GOAL 👑 👑
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 23, 2023
Osaze De Rosario makes it 2-0 for @YorkUtdFC vs. @ValourFootball just moments after his team opened the scoring, catching them on the counter 💨
🔴 Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/nYlAQHYQmt
Because of that, it’s put Valour in a precarious position with 12 games left, as they now sit six points out of a playoff spot.
The good (or maybe bad) news? Their next four games can potentially decide their season.
They’ll play three of those at home, where they’ll look to get back on track after recently ending a 13-game undefeated run with a pair of losses, while their one away game is against a struggling Vancouver side. If they can get at least 9-10 points out of those games, they can at least remain in the postseason conversation, but if not, it could be a fifth straight season without the playoffs in Winnipeg.
From there, big questions will be asked about the team’s recruitment and future, so this upcoming stretch might not just be key for the present, it could very well be crucial for what’s next, too.
It's safe to say a big couple of weeks loom large for Valour now.
New fortresses emerging in CPL?
Valour’s recent string of home losses is a great reason to explore another recent trend in the league: There's been a genuine shift in home form for teams that had typically held firm when hosting.
Based on last year, Cavalry (30 pts), Forge (26 pts), Pacific (26 pts) and Valour (25 pts), all averaged above 1.78 points per game at home.
This year? Only two teams are averaging more than 1.78 points per game: Halifax (16 pts in 7 games) and Cavalry (15 pts in 8 games).
Conversely, just two teams averaged more than 1.5 points per game on the road in 2022: Atlético Ottawa and Forge.
By comparison, there are four such teams so far this year.
I have a feeling this is going to make for a strange closing stanza to 2023.
Pacific FC will play eight of their last 12 games at home, but given that they're actually averaging fewer points per game at home than on the road, could that actually be a disadvantage for them in the title race?
On the flip side, Halifax plays seven of their last 12 at home, so given their home dominance, that could be huge in their title quest.
The key here is whether teams can maximize whatever advantages their home games do offer. Cavalry and Halifax have been able to do so, and it might be because they're the only two teams to play on grass. But there are other advantages: Pacific's narrow pitch, Valour's wider greens and Forge's big surface have all helped out in the past... but they must find a way to get back to that. Ottawa has been a great example of this. They're usually a team that struggles at home, but they’ve now won their last four, so it’s not as if all teams who play on turf are struggling.
But failure to capitalize on those advantages could hurt their title quests. This past weekend was a great example of that, as three road teams all won games, with Halifax being the lone home team to buck that trend, so keep an eye on this precarious balance as the season winds down.
Player of the Week: Alessandro Hojabpour
It was a competitive week in this regard, but ultimately Hojabpour edges it given the magnitude of the Forge and Pacific game, as he put up a big performance in a crucial game for his team.
Dominant on both sides of the ball, he was key to Forge’s big win over the then-league leaders, helping them keep pace in the title race at a crucial time.
Goal of the Week: Théo Collomb
Despite Cavalry’s best efforts to produce a goal-of-the-week winner, Théo Collomb’s goal in their win over Ottawa just couldn’t be denied in this section.
From Daniel Nimick’s pass, to the Collomb first-time finish, to the celebration, there’s a lot to like about this goal, which definitely goes into the “extremely satisfying” section of goals that have been scored in the CPL this season.
#CanPL. BANGERS. ONLY. ⚓️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 23, 2023
You can NOT do that to 'em like that, Theo Collomb 💀@HFXWanderersFC grab an emphatic opener vs. @AtletiOttawa 👀
🔴 Watch LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/HRgbijYocm
You gotta see this: Cavalry’s golazo quest
Yet, while Cavalry couldn’t get any love in the last section, they can get some props here, as they scored some beautiful goals in their win over Vancouver.
They were helped by being up a player for most of the game after an early dubious red card, but you can only beat whoever's in front of you, and they certainly did that.
Here are some of their offerings from this weekend here, starting with Daan Klomp’s best impression of Dennis Berkamp:
GOAL 🐎🐎@CPLCavalryFC go up 2-1 over @VanFootballClub as Daan Klomp shows off the flicks and tricks before rounding off with the finish
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 22, 2023
🔴 WATCH #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/Sd5kWeBJxH
Then there's Ali Musse's around-the-world set-up:
GOAL 🐎🐎🐎
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 22, 2023
It's starting to slip away for @VanFootballClub as @CPLCavalryFC take a 3-1 lead courtesy of Sergio Camargo after Ali Musse hit the L2 + right stick rotate on 'em 🎮
🔴 Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/iBaPsETEoG
And, of course, a little #CanPL. Bangers. Only. action to round it all off:
#CANPL. BANGERS. ONLY. 😎
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 23, 2023
It's Ali Musse.
That's all you need to know, really. pic.twitter.com/1ec0Xl9tkO
What I’m watching this week: York vs Halifax
There’s a huge six-pointer this week in the GTA, as York hosts Halifax in a crucial clash for both teams.
For York, it’s a chance to build off their tidy win over Valour, which might not have been their best performance of the year, but was certainly a well-deserved road victory.
Back at home for this one, they’ll look to get back to their usual ways, especially on the ball, where they were uncharacteristically sloppy against Valour.
As for Halifax, their hunt for a first road victory continues, and no better time to grab it than in a game that can also vault them into fourth place, while also very much putting them into the title race.
They’ve had some good performances on the road, but just haven’t been able to get any wins over the line, so no better time for them to change that than in this one.
