5 KEY tactical battles to watch between Cavalry FC & Forge FC in the 2024 CanPL Final
For the sixth and final time in 2024, Cavalry and Forge are getting set to do battle in Canadian Premier League action, as they’ll face each other in the 2024 CPL Final today in Calgary.
There, history awaits both teams, for different reasons.
For Cavalry, this is a chance for them to erase past playoff demons, as they look to claim their first North Star Cup after falling in their two previous final appearances, both to Forge in 2019 and 2023.
As for Forge, this is a chance to continue their dominance in CPL Finals, as they look to pick up their third straight North Star Cup and fifth overall, while becoming the first CPL side to complete the regular season double as CPL Shield and North Star Cup winners.
Safe to say, that means that no matter what happens at ATCO Field, it’ll mark a memorable ending to one of the most competitive seasons of CPL action yet.
A season that started with a matchup between these two teams on opening day, it’s only fitting it ends with them another chapter to their storied history, as they continue to sit as the two most dominant sides in the CPL’s six-year history.
With that in mind, here are five key battles to watch in this match, along with projected XIs for both teams.
Daniel Parra vs. Ali Musse:
To begin, there’s no better place to start than what is expected to be a heavyweight battle between Cavalry’s main attacking threat and Forge’s versatile left back.
Especially given that Parra will be returning from a three-game suspension for this game, that’ll give Forge a big boost, as they’ve sorely missed him during his absence.
He’ll certainly have his hands full in his return to action, however, as Musse is arguably the toughest winger to defend in the CPL. Armed with a dangerous left foot, silky dribbling and strong positional awareness, Musse knows how to cause all sorts of problems for defenders.
If they get too tight to him, he’ll beat them on the dribble or find a teammate with a pass. If they back off, he can cut inside and fire dangerous shots.
GOAL 🐎@CPLCavalryFC tie it up at 1-1 vs. @AtletiOttawa as Ali Musse hits a SCREAMER 😱
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) September 15, 2024
🔴 Watch our @tonybet_Canada #CanPL MOTW on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/QScqJGVZCN
Plus, he’s just as dangerous when shooting, crossing or passing, and he enjoys combining with his teammates, so it’s important to not just focus on him, but to take away his passing and crossing options, too.
GOAL 🐴
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 5, 2024
Jay Herdman puts @CPLCavalryFC ahead in his first start for the club ⚽️
That cross from Ali Musse though… 😍
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/13gSh9mlBz
Safe to say, it makes him a handful for any full back to defend.
But Parra isn’t your average full back - as he showed this year, he’s one of the best in the CPL, able to impact the game on both sides of the ball.
(Parra's heatmap from 2024 via Sofascore).
Yet, his all-around ability will be something to watch in this game - given that he’s typically been very aggressive in possession for Forge, often pushing up the field with overlaps and underlaps, while also sometimes pushing into midfield, it’ll be tough for him to do that while still remaining locked in on defending Musse.
At the same time, that’s the thing to watch with this battle.
For Musse to succeed, he’ll need to find a way to put Parra under pressure defensively, which will wear him down, and if all goes to plan for Cavalry that’ll limit his impact on the ball.
GOAL 🔨🔨🔨
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 1, 2024
It's three for @ForgeFCHamilton! Daniel Parra finishes off a great build-up from the Hammers to triple the lead 🟠
Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer 🔴 pic.twitter.com/KuHIADztEv
If Parra’s to succeed, however, he’ll still find a way to be very involved offensively, forcing Musse to defend more than he’d like to, which could limit his impact in possession.
Speaking of that last point, it’s worth noting that Forge could assist Parra’s ability to do that. Given that Malik Owolabi-Belewu has filled in nicely in Parra’s absence, it could make sense to keep him in the lineup, and either deploying him on the left-side of a back three behind Parra at wing back, or by playing him in a back four as the left-centre back alongside Parra at left back.
On Cavalry’s side, it’s clear what their plan is for the right side - Musse will play as an inverted winger on the right, with Fraser Aird overlapping him from right back - which will leave Forge with having to figure out the best way to deploy Parra up against that duo, with Owolabi-Belewu seeming like a good support option to use to fight fire with fire.
Tobias Warschewski vs. Forge’s backline:
When you score 13 regular season goals, one Canadian Championship goal and one CPL playoffs goal, there will understandably be a lot of attention fixed on you in a game like this.
Because of that, Cavalry’s Tobias Warschewski will be ready to carry some extra attention from Forge’s defenders, especially after scoring the lone goal in Cavalry’s 1-0 win over Forge in the qualifying semi-final, a win that qualified his team to this final as hosts.
Having scored twice in four appearances vs. Forge this year (both being 1-0 wins), he’s proven that he has no problem scoring against the Hammers, something that Cavalry would love to see continue in the final.
GOAL 🐎@CPLCAVALRYFC STRIKE FIRST 💥
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 27, 2024
Tobias Warschewski gets on the end of a goal kick and finishes the route one pass for his 14th of the year 😎
🔴 Watch #CanPL PLAYOFFS on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/oJwkhYCMJs
Now, however, the big thing to watch will be to see how Forge ends up defending Warschewski. What’s so tough about doing that, however, is that Warschewski isn’t your typical striker.
A technically gifted player with high IQ, he’s dangerous because he can drift all over the field, unafraid to drift wide or drop deeper to get touches on the ball and to open up space.
That’s tough to deal with, as you don’t want to let him get too involved in the build-up, but you don’t want to push up too much to do so, either, opening up space for Cavalry’s other key attacking pieces such as Musse, Aird and Sergio Camargo. Plus, you have to be wary of Warschewski’s runs into the box, as he knows how to pop up in good spaces with his dangerous movement. 
(Warschewski's heatmap from 2024 via Sofascore).
For Forge to properly deal with him, they’re going to need some assistance from their midfield, as defensive midfielder Alessandro Hojabrpour’s going to have a big role to play in ensuring Warschewski doesn’t drift between the lines, while their back line is going to have to be well aware of his surroundings.
Yet, when looking back at the previous idea of playing a back five, that’s another reason to suggest why doing that could make sense. If they do that, using Owolabi-Belewu at left centre back, Achinioti-Jönsson in the middle and one of Malcolm Duncan or Dominic Samuel at right centre back, that could give them what they need to deal with Warschewski.
In that scenario, Owolabi-Belewu would be tasked with helping Parra with Musse, while the right centre back would be tasked on keeping an eye on Cavalry’s left winger, leaving Achinioti-Jönsson in the middle and Hojabrpour in front of him to keep an eye on Warschewski’s movement.
GOAL🐎@CPLCavalryFC have taken the lead over Halifax just minutes into the 2nd half, as Tobias Warschewski finds his 10th of the season with a strike from distance
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 13, 2024
A reminder - Halifax needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/oj3Jo4IoVj
They could also do this in a back four, to be fair, especially if they receive some good news on the availability of some of their attacking pieces, but if not the three could be a good way to try and slow down Warschewski (while still freeing up Parra as mentioned earlier).
No doubt, however, Warschewski provides an important x-factor to this Cavalry attack, showing why his signing has been so key - they’ll now hope for him to continue his strong season with a big showing in the final.
Bekker, Jensen and Hojabrpour vs. Shome and Gutiérrez
As Forge’s midfield goes, so does Forge, as Alessandro Hojabrpour, Kyle Bekker, Noah Jensen and Tristan Borges have been massive for the Hammers this year.
It remains to be seen how Forge will deploy their midfield in this game, with the availability of Borges the big storyline after he didn’t play in Forge’s second playoff game after coming off after just 64 minutes in their first playoff match, but it feels like Hojabrpour, Bekker and Jensen will play a big role from the start no matter what.
And there, they’ll have a big role to play, as Cavalry will likely stick with the double-pivot of Shamit Shome and Diego Gutiérrez, the pair who stepped up in a big way amid the absence of some key pieces like Charlie Trafford.
In particular, Shome played a huge role in Cavalry’s success this season - despite not being a traditional defensive midfielder, he’s been a key part of Cavalry’s strong defensive record with his passing and defensive work. Along with the play of Gutiérrez, who has a similar profile, albeit with more passing range but lesser defensive responsibilities, they’ve done a lot of important work in Cavalry’s midfield.
They certainly played their role in helping Cavalry defeat Forge in the qualifying semi-final, and they’ll have their hands full in this match. 
(All of Shome (#26) and Gutiérrez's (#27) possession and defensive actions from Cavalry's 1-0 semi-final win over Forge, with possession actions represented by squares and defensive actions by triangles, via OPTA).
As for Forge, however, they’ll want to find a way to control the central channels, creating an overload in the middle with the trio of Hojabrpour, Bekker and Jensen.
In particular, Jensen will be key, as his ability to make late runs will offer a wrinkle Forge perhaps lacked in the first meeting with Borges not being at 100%.
GOAL⚒️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 6, 2024
Déja vù from the Hammers?
For the second time in a week, Kyle Bekker finds Noah Jensen in the box, and Jensen makes no mistake to put Forge up 1-0 vs Valour
🔴Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/cHGBH1IEth
What will help Forge, however, is that Parra’s return will offer some more support to help overload the middle, which could give Forge a key edge.
One way Cavalry can counter that, however, is to insert a third midfielder, which isn’t an outrageous possibility. By shifting Camargo over to left wing or by switching to a 4-3-2-1 with Musse and Camargo underneath Warschewski, they could bring in Charlie Trafford to form a trio with Shome and Gutiérrez, allowing Cavalry to go 1v1 vs. Forge’s midfield group.
Alternatively, Daan Klomp could step into a hybrid role where he plays in midfield in possession and in the back four defensively, something he hasn’t minded doing in the past. Given Forge’s struggles to find a regular #9 lately, that could free him up to push forward, leaving Callum Montgomery and Bradley Kamdem to deal with Forge’s transitional threat that David Choinière and Nana Ampomah could provide.
Either way, one thing’s for sure - expect both teams to flood the middle of the park, making it a congested place to play, making this battle a big one.
Forge’s wingers vs. Cavalry’s full backs:
With Forge’s issues at the #9 since Kwasi Poku’s departure, as injuries, form and fit have made it hard for them to find a consistent replacement, expect their wide players to shoulder a lot of the load offensively in this game in Nana Ampomah and David Choinière.
On Cavalry’s side, however, they’ll feel confident in their ability to hold their own in this matchup - left back Bradley Kamdem is among the best defensively at his position in the CPL, while Aird was arguably the best overall right back in the CPL this season.
For what it’s worth, however, both have two very different roles for Cavalry, which will be interesting to see play out especially against two wingers like Ampomah and Choinière.
GOAL 🔨@ForgeFCHamilton open the scoring vs. @vanfootballclub as Jordan Hamilton finds David Choiniere for the top-of-the-roof finish 👀
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 18, 2024
🔴 WATCH the #CanPL @TonyBet_Canada MOTW on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/n6rkyIOpjE
First, there’s Aird, who is a huge piece in Cavalry’s offence, often providing width with his dangerous overlaps forward. A very good crosser of the ball, his service is key for someone like Warschewski, who has shown to be able to thrive off the sort of delivery he provides.
Naturally, though, Aird has to do a lot of running, which can sometimes open up space for wingers to run into when he gets caught up the field. Because of that, it’ll be intriguing to see how Forge attacks that.
Based on their approach against Atlético Ottawa in the semi-finals, it looks like Ampomah will start on the left, so look for him to try and play more direct and try to attack the flanks, the same way he did against Ottawa. Given that Ottawa also used their right-sided defender, Dani Morer, to attack aggressively like Cavalry does, that Forge switched Ampomah from striker to left wing for that matchup would indicate they’d probably want to keep him there given Aird’s desire to push forward.
On the left, however, Cavalry has Kamdem, who plays much more conservatively, playing as a left-sided centre back in possession, before defending like a true left back.
There, he has a tough test, as Choinière is direct and loves to attack the half-space with speed. At the same time, if someone can handle that matchup, it’ll be Kamdem, which will be something to watch. 
(The average positions of Forge's front four in their last match, showing that Choinière (#7) played more centrally closer to Noah Jensen (#22), while Nana Ampomah (#11) played a little wider, via OPTA)
For what it’s worth, keep an eye out for Forge to potentially switch their wingers every couple of minutes. Perhaps, they’ll feel they’ll want to target Aird’s side with fresh legs if he’s attacking aggressively, with the other winger tucking in more centrally to help support the attack instead of running at Kamdem too much.
No doubt, however - a lot of Forge’s final third play will go through their wingers, who will then be tasked with trying to find their midfielders with cutbacks, making it intriguing to see how Cavalry’s full backs fare in that battle.
Who will initiate possession?
What’s always fascinating about this tactical matchup is that both teams are quite similar - they like to play on the front foot, want to control the ball, flood the middle of the park, defend aggressively and are flexible tactically.
Because of that, this matchup can often be a game of cat-and-mouse, one that can lead to some intriguing tactical tweaks designed to catch the other by surprise.
Plus, there always ends up being a fascinating battle when it comes to the possession game, as both teams love to hold onto the ball - they were the two teams who held the most of the ball in the CPL this year, with Cavalry narrowly edging Forge. 
Despite that, Forge ended up holding onto 62% of the ball in their qualifying semi-final meeting, which was a surprise. To be fair, score effects can be thanked for that one - thanks to Cavalry’s 27th-minute winner from Tobias Warschewski, they spent most of the game sitting back and defending.
Now, however, it’ll be intriguing to see who wants to hold onto more of the ball. Given that Cavalry’s at home, are rested and familiar with the pitch, it’ll make sense for them to control proceedings to start, but that can suit Forge, especially if they start a speedier front three and aim to hit on the counter.
Yet, what will be the big factor to watch is the first goal. Both teams are comfortable playing in possession, but they’re equally as comfortable sitting back and defending a lead, especially when lined up against each other.
The last thing either side wants to do is open up the match early and create a track meet, as both teams are too dangerous offensively to leave open space, so they’ll want to control as much of the ball defensively, especially when they’ve got a lead.
Until either team has the lead, however, the possession battle could go either way, so keep an eye out for that battle. In particular, both teams' starting lineups will provide a big hint - Cavalry going with a third midfielder would be a strong sign of their intent to keep the ball, the same way Forge sticking with a 4-2-3-1 with Jensen at the #10 would probably suggest they want to be playing on the front-foot.
The team that sees more of the ball early in the game would theoretically get more dangerous chances as long as they take care of it (and as two of the three teams with the highest pass percentage in the CPL this year, they’ll likely do that), so look for both teams to want to get early control on the game.
Plus in a final like this, that could help both settle into the match quicker, which is always a bonus, showing why the early possession battle will be so key.
Projected XIs:
Cavalry FC:
Forge FC:
