MATCH PREVIEW: 3 KEY tactical battles to watch as Forge get set to face Atlético Ottawa in 2024 CanPL playoffs semi-final
A tectonic CPL playoff clash awaits in Hamilton this weekend, as Forge hosts Atlético Ottawa in the semi-finals at Tim Hortons Field on Saturday.
With Cavalry already waiting in the final, this match will determine who will head to Alberta next weekend, where the North Star Cup will be handed out.
A battle between two teams who never thought they’d be here earlier in the year, with both Forge and Ottawa having entered the year with strong aspirations for a trophy, it’s quite something to think that one will see their season end this weekend.
Yet, that’s the beauty of the CPL, where any team can beat the other on any given day. That was reflected in the regular season campaign, where the race for the CPL Shield was tight for most of the season, and the battle for the final playoff spot came down to the last weekend.
Heading into this postseason, several teams will have felt they could make a run for the North Star Cup, meaning that some inevitably would fall short of that goal.
Now, one of the next teams to be eliminated will be one of the two teams who spent the longest amount of time in first place in the regular season (with Forge ending up as the CPL Shield winners), which will produce a shock either way.
So who will it be? Will Forge’s streak of five consecutive final appearances and two straight North Star Cups come to an end? Or will Ottawa’s “Superteam” season come to a premature finish?
There’s only one way to find out, and that’ll be on the pitch at Tim Hortons Field this upcoming Saturday.
One spot in the 2024 CPL Final belongs to @CPLCavalryFC, but who will join them at ATCO Field on November 9? 👀
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) October 27, 2024
Here is the updated #CanPL Playoff bracket 📃 pic.twitter.com/eQPUn4QndM
With that in mind, here are three key battles to watch.
Who will control the midfield?
Naturally, when looking at a matchup between these two teams, it’s hard to look much further than the middle of the park, where both are arguably their strongest.
On one side, there’s Forge and their seemingly endless list of options, which include Alessandro Hojabrpour, Kyle Bekker, Noah Jensen and Tristan Borges.
Then, when looking at Ottawa, they’re no slouches, sitting with the likes of Alberto Zapater, Manny Aparicio, Aboubacar Sissoko and Ollie Bassett.
Because of that, it feels like this game can be won or lost in the middle of the park, as there is no shortage of players who can step up and control the game from the central channels.
For Forge, watch for them to consider using an extra body in midfield, as they’ve only gone with three as of late, but have sometimes used a fourth player in a box midfield set-up. Given that they’ve struggled for goals lately, they might view that extra body as a way to get more goals, given that Jensen, Bekker, and Borges have been some of their most dangerous threats offensively.
A box of Hojabrpour and Bekker underneath Borges and Jensen could push the duo of Borges and Jensen to make more dangerous box-arriving runs, especially if Forge can get width from either their full backs or wingers (or both).
Against an Ottawa team that likes to jam the middle with a 5-4-1 off the ball, using four in the middle could allow Forge to still control the ball, provided the wide players stretch the field enough to open those central channels.
As for Ottawa, however, they’ll want to counter with a strong unit of their own. In particular, the one thing to watch is if they decide to use Zapater from the start, as he came into Ottawa’s match against York off the bench, and hasn’t started since August.
With his defensive ability and passing, he’d be a big asset, so if he’s unable to start and give a 60-minute shift, that could hurt them. For what it’s worth, Ottawa has other options - Sissoko would be a lock to start in his position, but the big question will be if there’s enough defensive power to go up against Forge’s midfield group.
One solution to watch? The insertion of Ilias Iladis as a midfielder, as he filled that role when coming off the bench against York. A more defensively responsible option, deploying him alongside Sissoko and Aparicio could provide Ottawa with that defensive balance, while freeing up Bassett to play more freely.
The lone drawback? That might cut out a Ballou Tabla from the lineup, which is less than ideal, as his speed could be useful in this matchup, especially when seeing how Cavalry carved Forge over the top on their lone goal in their playoff matchup last week. Because of that, it’s possible Iliadis slots into a hybrid midfield/centre back role at the back, allowing Ottawa to still use three in the middle and keep Tabla on the park.
At the same time, with the midfield battle promising to be an important one in this game, countering with four true midfielders remains an option Ottawa will consider as they look to not cede any control in the middle while still offering a threat going forward. 
Forge’s striker vs. Ottawa’s backline:
It’s not often that Forge goes three games without scoring a goal - heck, them going one or two games without scoring usually raises eyebrows.
So for them to be without a goal since they beat Valour earlier this month to clinch the CPL Shield is a huge surprise. In particular, that they failed to score against Cavalry in their playoff match is the biggest shock - that was the first time since 2021 that they were held scoreless in a postseason match.
Yet, there was a big question surrounding their offence heading into the game, and they failed to answer it - what’s their best solution up front? They ended up trying Nana Ampomah, but that didn’t work out, as he ended up with just 30 touches across 90 minutes.
To be fair, credit has to be given to Cavalry for that - they conceded the fewest goals, xG and xG per shot in the regular season, and showed why with a strong defensive showing.
At the same time, things won’t get any easier for Forge in this next matchup, as Ottawa is the next-best team in terms of goals and xG against from the regular season.
A big reason for that is their defensive unit, headlined by Amer Didić and supported by the likes of Tyr Walker, Jesús del Amo and goalkeeper Nathan Ingham. In particular, Didić offers a unique threat to deal with - he’s a dominant force aerially in the box, but is also quite good at defending 1v1 and does a good job of getting in front of shots.
Plus, with Ottawa employing a system that emphasizes team defence, they do their best to support their defence as a team, starting from the front. That can make the backline’s job easier, as they know that their midfielders will track back, helping limit space for opposing attackers to threaten in.
For what it’s worth, Ottawa aren’t perfect defensively - they allowed two goals against York they’ll want back, especially when looking at Mo Babouli’s unmarked header - but those goals came from moments of individual brilliance, which is what it takes to beat this defence.
Certainly, Forge has those moments in this group - Béni Badibanga has scored some spectacular goals in the past 14 months, David Choinière loves a big game goal, while the likes of Borges, Bekker and Jensen have all shown to be more than capable of scoring from distance.
GOAL 🔨@ForgeFCHamilton open the scoring vs. @PacificFCCPL as Noah Jensen puts his foot through the ball for a rocket strike 🚀
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 30, 2024
🔴 Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/rIFKW2tlI8
But as they saw against Cavalry, it’s hard for them to find the space required to make that happen without a #9 who can open up the pitch for them, and Ampomah was unable to do that.
Because of that, it’ll be interesting to see how they approach this task. For what it’s worth, starting someone with Ampomah’s profile made a lot of sense against Cavalry, who is more willing to push their defensive line up the pitch, but against an Ottawa team that likes to naturally employ a bit more of a conservative defensive line, it could actually be worth it for Forge to use more of a natural target at the #9.
As a result, that could open the door for one of Jordan Hamilton or Terran Campbell to start, with their task being to occupy Didić, opening up space for one of the players underneath to make a late run in the box or to be able to receive the ball at the edge of the area.
Having both struggled with their form (in Hamilton’s case) and injuries (in Campbell’s case), it could be a big call to make for this game, but it could be a risk worth taking for a Forge side looking for answers up front. 
How will Ottawa attack the left side of Forge’s defence?
All season long, Daniel Parra has been a revelation for Forge, as the CF Monterrey loanee has immediately slotted in and played a big role for the Hammers.
Because of that, it’s been a big blow to Forge that he’s been suspended for the last two games, as he earned a three-game ban for a punch in their loss to Ottawa. His suspension is currently under appeal, but until the results of that appeal are in, Forge will have to prepare for life without him.
The good news? Forge has a more than capable replacement, Malik Owolabi-Belewu, who has gone up against top wingers and not looked out of place in those battles, which have included the likes of Federico Bernardeschi and Ali Musse. Because of that, they won’t be losing much defensively with Owolabi-Belewu in the lineup.
Unfortunately for Forge, where Parra’s absence is felt is on the ball, as his biggest impact this season has been the new dimension he’s added to Forge with his ability to progress the ball with his passing and dribbling.
A player who is extremely comfortable in possession, sometimes slotting in and playing as an extra midfielder, he’s given Forge an extra edge on the ball, which has been huge for a team that already likes to control games in possession. Relentless going forward, he can help pin opposing wide players back when he overlaps, while causing confusion for defenders when he underlaps.
Without him, however, Forge lacks that same presence from Owolabi-Belewu. That’s not his fault - he’s quite good on the ball in his own right, but he just doesn’t have the same skillset as Parra, and to be fair, there aren’t many in the CPL who do.
Because of that, look for Ottawa to try and capitalize on Parra’s absence if he doesn’t play. In particular, that could push them to employ Ballou Tabla on that side (which is interesting when considering the earlier midfield question), forcing Owolabi-Belweu to play more defensively. 
Cavalry were able to do that with Ali Musse, who didn’t have his strongest game but was able to open up space for those around him to run. With Owolabi-Belewu being more of a defensive player (he’s naturally a centre back), he won’t sacrifice his defensive game to get more involved in possession, especially if tasked with a tough 1v1 matchup.
That was shown in Forge’s loss to Pacific on the last game of the season, as Owolabi-Belweu was actually quite aggressive in the attack for one half, playing similarly to Parra, but then had to rein it in the second half as Forge struggled to defend in transition with him playing so aggressively.
GOAL🦕@atletiOttawa have opened the scoring against Vancouver FC, as Ballou Tabla capitalizes on a mistake at the back to make it 1-0
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 13, 2024
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/5fqDPZzS8x
Because of that, look for Tabla to push Owolabi-Belewu back to try and limit his offensive impact, knowing that he won’t push forward as aggressively as Parra would if available for this match.
