2024 TELUS CanChamp CUPSET(S)? How Forge FC, Pacific FC can overcome their MLS opponents
The 2024 TELUS Candian Championship returns to action this week, with the tournament down to just four teams remaining after a turbulent quarter-finals.
The Vancouver Whitecaps will travel to and from Vancouver Island to stop BC turning purple again, while Forge FC, hot off their long-awaited revenge against CF Montreal but in the midst of their coldest season to date, will look to knock off a Toronto FC side whose own form has cratered after their May smackdown of CS Saint-Laurent.
But can these two Canadian Premier League sides orchestrate more cup magic and book a spot (or spots) in the final?
Here's how they might be able to pull it off:
How Forge defeats Toronto FC:
Toronto FC haven’t exactly earned the right to look past a CPL opponent with their play as of late... and head coach John Herdman certainly isn’t looking past Forge and their CF Montreal victory either, for that matter:
Just asked #TFCLive boss John Herdman about playing #CanPL side @ForgeFCHamilton next in the Canadian Championship:
— Benedict Rhodes (@BTFR17) July 7, 2024
"It's an exciting opportunity against a good team in Forge, who already put Montreal out of the competition. You know they have the quality to beat MLS teams." pic.twitter.com/v7vCgedDQu
The way Forge pulled off that first MLS upset was undeniably clever – striker Kwasi Poku might be one of the stranger experiments Bobby Smyrnitois has concocted in his tenure as manager... but it was also a curiously successful one. June’s CPL Player of the Month has been one of the bright spots in a season marred by inconsistency. Poku at the front of Forge’s band of technical tricksters proved the perfect poison for a Montreal backline that ranks among the weakest in MLS.
Will they be able to get behind Kevin Long, Nicksoen Gomis and friends quite so easily? Goals allowed might indicate yes – TFC have conceded just 3 fewer than that Montreal backline Forge penetrated with ease.
What you might have missed is how a resurgent Jonathan Sirois has made that gap smaller than it should be. After a rocky start to the season, Sirois has suddenly floated to the top of the league in XG, where Sean Johnson and Luka Gavran have both plateaued. Eye test enthusiasts will have a hearty belly laugh at me for saying it, but TFC’s offense has drifted much closer to rock bottom than their defense.
For Forge, that might mean fewer long balls over the top and a little more emphasis on keeping possession (of which they conceded 70% at Stade Saputo). Foolhardy though it may seem to let Insigne and Bernardeschi charge at the backline, TFC simply haven’t been able to break backlines who simply challenge them to break them down. If Forge can keep the high-end talent in front of the backline, they’ll be relegated to prayers and screamers. Those might still go in, but Forge will happily concede relatively low-percentage attempts.
Said Smyrniotis: "We're a club that in the past five years has won four championships. We don't look at anyone else as a giant; we consider ourselves a big club."
How Pacific overcome Whitecaps:
This will be something of a rubber match between two regional foes who took turns knocking each other out of the competition. These are two sides tentatively in playoff spots, both struggling to score from open play, both riding waves of low-event football to nearly identical point rates.
That 4-3 barn burner at Starlight Stadium was famously the last match of Marc Dos Santos’ tenure, and the one that ushered in Vanni Sartini. Still-Whitecaps Javain Brown, Ranko Veselinovic, Ryan Gauld, Brian White and Ryan Raposo all started that game, as did one Maxime Crepeau. The only Pacific player still dawning the purple is Josh Heard, who scored their third goal.
Goal of the night so far (and we've had good choices) from Pacific's Josh Heard to put Pacific up 3-1
— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) August 27, 2021
He's been great tonight, so it's good to see him get that deserved reward for his play#CanChamppic.twitter.com/u6571583Ty
Tepid though their attacking play has been, Pacific have been exceptionally hard to score on, thanks in part to Emil Gazdov and thanks in part to Juan Quintana smack in the middle of the backline, who’s been an absolute revelation. Containing Ryan Gauld, should Vancouver opt to use him, will be the challenge. Brian White, too, is back in sensational goalscoring form.
The Whitecaps will surely want to break out of their typically patient sensibility and really take the game to their opponents. They will bet on their big talent to break a CPL backline, even if it’s been the premier backline in the league.
For Pacific manager James Merriman, I would bet the gameplan isn’t so different from the usual. A high-event back-and-forth plays into the Whitecaps’ hands. Challenge that attack that largely rests on the shoulders of Gauld and White to break their lines - look to squeeze out a match winner as Vancouver hem themselves into a possession-heavy offense that doesn’t suit them.
“[The CPL] is still growing, we're still just in our 6th season," Merriman said. “We’re always trying to prove ourselves and show the quality we have in the league.”
When will we find out if it happens?
Both Leg 1 matches will be played on Wednesday night, with Toronto-Forge going down at Tim Hortons Field at 7PM EST, before Pacific FC face off against the Vancouver Whitecaps at Starlight Stadium at 7PM PST / 10PM EST. Then? We'll need to wait until end of August to find out how these two match-ups end, with Leg 2 set to take place back-to-back on the evening of August 27. All four 2024 TELUS Canadian Championship match-ups are available to watch right here on OneSoccer.
